BURMA: KARENNI PEACE TALKS GOING NOWHERE FAST

C O N F I D E N T I A L RANGOON 000447 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE FOR EAP/MLS; PACOM FOR FPA CORRECTED COPY - CHANGE OF ADDRESSEE E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/10/2017 TAGS: PGOV PHUM PINS PREF BM SUBJECT: BURMA: KARENNI PEACE TALKS GOING NOWHERE FAST REF: A. 06 RANGOON 1520 ¶B. 06 RANGOON 1184 ¶C. 06 RANGOON 1042 ¶D. 05 CHIANG MAI 199 Classified By: POLOFF Dean Tidwell for Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: The regime has quietly engaged leaders of the insurgent Karenni National People's Party in peace discussions in recent months. The key sticking point remains the status of Burmese Army bases in Kayah State. The Karenni may eventually cede this point, but appear to be in no hurry to decide. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (C) Bishop Sotero Phamo of Loikaw, Kayah State (ref C), briefed us on recent peace talks between the regime and the Karenni National People's Party (KNPP),the key resistance group in Kayah State. Following efforts in early 2006 by mediators from Kayah State to restart a dialogue between the KNPP and the regime (ref A),Sotero told us he traveled to Thailand in November 2006 to meet Karenni leaders at a refugee camp near Mae Hong Son. According to Sotero, the regime approved him as a mediator to meet the insurgent leaders. ¶3. (C) The Karenni leaders told Sotero they wished to return to Kayah State and requested the regime to designate special repatriation zones for Karenni refugees. They also requested the Burmese Army to withdraw its troops from the zones, the very same issue that led the KNPP to break its 1995 cease-fire agreement with the regime after only three months (ref B). ¶4. (C) Sotero said in February he joined Burmese Military Security Affairs officers from Loikaw, Taunggyi, and Kengtung for follow up talks with KNPP leader Raymond Htoo at Tachileik, Shan State. The intelligence officers told Raymond Htoo it was not possible to withdraw Burmese soldiers from Kayah State because the Burmese Army is responsible for protecting Burma's borders. According to Sotero, Raymond Htoo seemed ready to acquiesce to the continued presence of Burmese soldiers in Kayah State after a cease-fire. However, when Burmese intelligence officials pressed him to strike a quick peace agreement, Raymond Htoo said he could not make a decision on his own and needed time to consult with the KNPP's central committee. ¶5. (C) COMMENT: Although Raymond Htoo may be ready to try another cease-fire deal, other KNPP members may be more cautious. The recent experience of former Karen National Liberation Army Brigadier General Htay Maung, whose independent peace deal with the regime left Karen unity in tatters, has shown the limited rewards and great risks involved. However, as more Karenni refugees settle in third countries and the KNPP's power base diminishes (ref D),KNPP leaders may decide they have no choice but to share their state with the Burmese Army. END COMMENT. ¶6. (U) This cable was coordinated with Consulate Chiang Mai. VILLAROSA