BURMA: DETAINED PRO-DEMOCRACY LEADERS RELEASED

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 RANGOON 000041 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE FOR EAP AND IO; PACOM FOR FPA E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/11/2017 TAGS: PGOV PREL BM SUBJECT: BURMA: DETAINED PRO-DEMOCRACY LEADERS RELEASED Classified By: A/DCM Leslie Hayden for Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (C) Summary: Early on January 11, the regime released the five detained leaders of the 88 Generation Students (88GS) movement. The five were treated well during their detention and were provided with food and medicine. They believe the regime detained them as pawns to be released at the appropriate time in order to lessen international pressure to release Aung San Suu Kyi and derail U.S. efforts to pass a Burma resolution in the UN Security Council. The leaders were satisfied with the campaigns organized by the interim leaders calling for their release and support the students current "Open Hearts" campaign. In detaining the five leaders the regime may have made a huge miscalculation. The detentions succeeded in focusing public attention on the 88 Generation movement and galvanized them to organize, strategize, establish regional leaders throughout Burma, and forge a more cooperative relationship with the Aung San Suu Kyi's party, the National League for Democracy. Please see paragraph 8 for recommended press guidance. End Summary. ¶2. (C) Pol/Econ Chief met with 88 Generation leader Jimmy and Zaganar, a famous comedian and political activist who contacted us to pass several messages from Min Ko Naing. Although the five leaders wanted to meet us in person, they are under heavy surveillance and felt the risk was too great so soon after being released. Jimmy told us that at around 1:30 a.m. on January 11, the regime released the five detained leaders of the 88 Generation Students movement: Min Ko Naing, Ko Ko Gyi, Htay Kywe, Pyone Cho and Min Zeya. The five are in good health and were treated well during their detention. Their guards provided them with food and medicine. The five were kept separated during the entire period and were housed at the Rangoon headquarters of the Police Special Branch at Eight Mile Junction. ¶3. (C) The five leaders were released unconditionally and not forced to sign any statements renouncing political activism. Before their release, the leaders told them they could be arrested and sentenced to several years in prison if they issued any statements, publicly opposed the National Convention, or distributed political material to the public. This is a standard warning given to most political prisoners when they are released. More disturbing was a warning to them to be careful of attacks from the "public." A thinly disguised threat alluding to possible attacks by thugs from the regime's mass member organization, the Union Solidarity and Development Association (USDA). This is the same technique the regime used to attack Aung San Suu Kyi at Depeyin in 2003. The five are very disturbed about this warning and fear it signals plans by the regime to physically attack them in the near future. ¶4. (C) The five leaders strongly support the UNSC resolution proposed by the U.S. and believe our efforts in the Security Council encourage the Burmese people and add pressure to the regime to implement democratic reforms more quickly. They feel countries on the UNSC that oppose a Burma resolution should propose realistic alternatives. Engagement has not produced results, they emphasized. They had especially harsh words for ASEAN nations which should take a stand and speak out publicly in support of democratic reform in Burma. ¶5. (C) Min Ko Naing asked that the U.S. and other countries continue to pressure the regime to release all political prisoners, including Aung San Suu Kyi, and push the regime to cease attacking political activists working peacefully and within the law to bring democracy to Burma. The leaders believe the regime detained them as pawns to be released at the appropriate moment, for maximum benefit, to lessen international pressure to release Aung San Suu Kyi and derail U.S. efforts to pass a Burma resolution in the UNSC. ¶6. (C) The leaders stated they were very satisfied with the signature and "wear white" campaigns organized by the interim leaders while they were detained. They strongly support the 88GS current "Open Heart" campaign, that consists of regional leaders, recently designated by the 88GS, distributing blank RANGOON 00000041 002 OF 002 pieces of paper addressed to Than Shwe throughout the country for citizens to write their complaints about Burma's economic and social conditions and send them to the Senior General. The 88GS leaders told us they do not consider themselves a political party but rather a political movement that seeks a long-term solution to Burma's political problems. They will design campaigns to change the public's attitude, educate the people on their rights, and encourage them not to be afraid to demand their rights under the country's laws. They want to promote public participation in the political process, educate people on how to file legal complaints, and create a transparent society. They seek to work with any organization that has the same goals, including the National League for Democracy and small Burmese organizations working to promote human rights. ¶7. (C) Comment: The regime may have miscalculated by detaining Min Ko Naing and his colleagues. A movement that had not shown much momentum has now gained national attention and been galvanized to organize, strategize, and establish regional leaders throughout the country. What was once a cautious and tentative relationship between the NLD and the 88GS has become an alliance. The NLD issued statements calling for the release of the detained leaders, supported their campaigns, and sent their lawyers to represent the five and work for their release. For the first time, a representative of the 88GS students delivered a rousing speech at NLD headquarters at their January 4 Independence Day celebration. While their thinly disguised warnings showed the regime's reliance on fear and intimidation to maintain control, the regime has effectively caused the opposition to become more unified. We agree that the regime released the leaders in order to derail a UNSC resolution on Burma, as well as keep their ASEAN partners, now meeting in Cebu, Philippines, from abandoning them. However, any temporary benefit to the regime will be offset by the growing opposition coming together. End comment. ¶8. (U) PROPOSED PRESS GUIDANCE: The United States welcomes the release of the five leaders of the 88 Generation Students: Min Ko Naing, Ko Ko Gyi, Htay Kywe, Pyone Cho, and Min Zeya. However, Burma still holds more than 1000 political prisoners, and they should also be released immediately and unconditionally, including NLD General Secretary Aung San Suu Kyi, Shan NLD leader Hkun Htun Oo, and SIPDIS journalist Win Tin. By releasing all political prisoners and initiating a credible, inclusive political dialogue with representatives of all the people of Burma, the government would demonstrate its sincerity in cooperating with the good offices of the UN Secretary General. END PRESS GUIDANCE. VILLAROSA