Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07RANGOON407
2007-05-02 09:07:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Rangoon
Cable title:
BURMA: WHO WOULD BE PRIME MINISTER?
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 RANGOON 000407
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
STATE FOR EAP/MLS; PACOM FOR FPA
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/01/2017
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL BM
SUBJECT: BURMA: WHO WOULD BE PRIME MINISTER?
RANGOON 00000407 001.2 OF 002
Classified By: Poloff Dean Tidwell for Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 RANGOON 000407
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
STATE FOR EAP/MLS; PACOM FOR FPA
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/01/2017
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL BM
SUBJECT: BURMA: WHO WOULD BE PRIME MINISTER?
RANGOON 00000407 001.2 OF 002
Classified By: Poloff Dean Tidwell for Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)
1. (C) SUMMARY: Prime Minister Soe Win's extended stay in
Singapore for medical treatment fueled many rumors about his
successor. While several names have been suggested for the
largely ceremonial post, it is not clear that anybody really
wants the job. With several key regime leaders reportedly in
poor health, succession may hinge on whose health fails
first, and may partly explain why the regime has not
announced the resumption of the National Convention in May as
earlier expected. END SUMMARY.
2. (C) According to our sources, Prime Minister Soe Win has
returned to Rangoon from Singapore, where he reportedly
received chemotherapy and a bone marrow transplant to treat
leukemia. He secretly traveled there in early March. The
length of his absence and the dearth of official news about
his condition have led many to conclude that he would be
unable to resume his official duties. While this could be
true, local rumor also had Senior General Than Shwe all but
buried when he went to Singapore in early January for medical
treatment. Absent reliable information, do not assume that
Soe Win's premiership is over.
THEIN SEIN
3. (C) The position of SPDC Secretary-1 was Khin Nyunt's
stepping-stone to the PM's Office. Although he held the post
for less than two years, Than Shwe deposed him after Khin
Nyunt tried to make the PM's job more than a ceremonial post.
Soe Win succeeded Khin Nyunt as S-1 in 2003, and then again
replaced him as PM in October 2004. Some see Soe Win's rise
as a reward for his role in the Depeyin attack on Aung San
Suu Kyi. If the past were a guide, current S-1 Lieutenant
General Thein Sein would be a logical successor to Soe Win.
However, Thein Sein has a heart pacemaker, and sources tell
us he does not want the job and has valid health reasons to
decline it.
4. (C) Delegates to the National Convention (NC) told us
recently they are puzzled why the regime had not sent out any
invitations to the NC, which the Chinese ambassador and other
sources reported would resume on May 7. Some claim the delay
in restarting the NC is related to the state of Soe Win's
health and questions whether Thein Sein, currently the
Chairman of the NC, would become PM and force the regime to
pick a new NC Chairman to replace him.
THE THREE MYINTS
5. (C) Rangoon rumors talk of "three Myints" as possible PM
successors.
-- Lieutenant General Myint Swe, the current Chief of Bureau
of Special Operations - 5, a newly created office responsible
solely for the civil, military and security of Rangoon
Division. The joint civil and military commander of Rangoon
reports to Myint Swe. He reportedly is close to Than Shwe
and is one of the few generals willing to meet with us.
-- Major General Thura Myint Aung, the current Southwest
Regional Commander and believed to be a protege of Vice
Senior General Maung Aye. In September 2006, rumors
circulated that he would replace Maung Aye as Army Chief.
-- Major General Myint Hlaing, the current Chief of Air
Defense. Exile groups paint a grim picture of Myint Hlaing,
who they claim is closely aligned to Maung Aye and who
allegedly was involved in a litany of atrocities and
corruption scandals when he was Northeast Regional Commander
in Shan State.
A WAITING GAME?
6. (C) Although Than Shwe has made frequent public
appearances lately to showcase his vigor, Embassy sources
RANGOON 00000407 002.2 OF 002
continue to insist that he is seriously ill with several
potentially fatal diseases. Maung Aye is known to suffer
from prostate cancer. Only SPDC number three General Thura
Shwe Mann, who is a decade younger, has no known serious
ailments.
7. (C) COMMENT: Given the precarious health of the top two
leaders, both may prefer to maintain the status quo in hope
the other falls (dies) first. This may lead them to settle
on a compromise candidate who would fill the largely
ceremonial post until greater changes occur. Since it is a
ceremonial post, the issue of a successor PM merits little
attention beyond the ongoing maneuvering for positions among
the senior leadership. END COMMENT.
VILLAROSA
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
STATE FOR EAP/MLS; PACOM FOR FPA
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/01/2017
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL BM
SUBJECT: BURMA: WHO WOULD BE PRIME MINISTER?
RANGOON 00000407 001.2 OF 002
Classified By: Poloff Dean Tidwell for Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)
1. (C) SUMMARY: Prime Minister Soe Win's extended stay in
Singapore for medical treatment fueled many rumors about his
successor. While several names have been suggested for the
largely ceremonial post, it is not clear that anybody really
wants the job. With several key regime leaders reportedly in
poor health, succession may hinge on whose health fails
first, and may partly explain why the regime has not
announced the resumption of the National Convention in May as
earlier expected. END SUMMARY.
2. (C) According to our sources, Prime Minister Soe Win has
returned to Rangoon from Singapore, where he reportedly
received chemotherapy and a bone marrow transplant to treat
leukemia. He secretly traveled there in early March. The
length of his absence and the dearth of official news about
his condition have led many to conclude that he would be
unable to resume his official duties. While this could be
true, local rumor also had Senior General Than Shwe all but
buried when he went to Singapore in early January for medical
treatment. Absent reliable information, do not assume that
Soe Win's premiership is over.
THEIN SEIN
3. (C) The position of SPDC Secretary-1 was Khin Nyunt's
stepping-stone to the PM's Office. Although he held the post
for less than two years, Than Shwe deposed him after Khin
Nyunt tried to make the PM's job more than a ceremonial post.
Soe Win succeeded Khin Nyunt as S-1 in 2003, and then again
replaced him as PM in October 2004. Some see Soe Win's rise
as a reward for his role in the Depeyin attack on Aung San
Suu Kyi. If the past were a guide, current S-1 Lieutenant
General Thein Sein would be a logical successor to Soe Win.
However, Thein Sein has a heart pacemaker, and sources tell
us he does not want the job and has valid health reasons to
decline it.
4. (C) Delegates to the National Convention (NC) told us
recently they are puzzled why the regime had not sent out any
invitations to the NC, which the Chinese ambassador and other
sources reported would resume on May 7. Some claim the delay
in restarting the NC is related to the state of Soe Win's
health and questions whether Thein Sein, currently the
Chairman of the NC, would become PM and force the regime to
pick a new NC Chairman to replace him.
THE THREE MYINTS
5. (C) Rangoon rumors talk of "three Myints" as possible PM
successors.
-- Lieutenant General Myint Swe, the current Chief of Bureau
of Special Operations - 5, a newly created office responsible
solely for the civil, military and security of Rangoon
Division. The joint civil and military commander of Rangoon
reports to Myint Swe. He reportedly is close to Than Shwe
and is one of the few generals willing to meet with us.
-- Major General Thura Myint Aung, the current Southwest
Regional Commander and believed to be a protege of Vice
Senior General Maung Aye. In September 2006, rumors
circulated that he would replace Maung Aye as Army Chief.
-- Major General Myint Hlaing, the current Chief of Air
Defense. Exile groups paint a grim picture of Myint Hlaing,
who they claim is closely aligned to Maung Aye and who
allegedly was involved in a litany of atrocities and
corruption scandals when he was Northeast Regional Commander
in Shan State.
A WAITING GAME?
6. (C) Although Than Shwe has made frequent public
appearances lately to showcase his vigor, Embassy sources
RANGOON 00000407 002.2 OF 002
continue to insist that he is seriously ill with several
potentially fatal diseases. Maung Aye is known to suffer
from prostate cancer. Only SPDC number three General Thura
Shwe Mann, who is a decade younger, has no known serious
ailments.
7. (C) COMMENT: Given the precarious health of the top two
leaders, both may prefer to maintain the status quo in hope
the other falls (dies) first. This may lead them to settle
on a compromise candidate who would fill the largely
ceremonial post until greater changes occur. Since it is a
ceremonial post, the issue of a successor PM merits little
attention beyond the ongoing maneuvering for positions among
the senior leadership. END COMMENT.
VILLAROSA