BURMA: THE NLD OPTS OUT OF THE REGIME'S ROADMAP

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 RANGOON 000269 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE FOR EAP AND IO; PACOM FOR FPA E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/11/2017 TAGS: PGOV PREL BM SUBJECT: BURMA: THE NLD OPTS OUT OF THE REGIME'S ROADMAP REF: A. RANGOON 186 ¶B. 06 RANGOON 1717 Classified By: P/E Chief Leslie Hayden for Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (C) Summary: The NLD has decided not to insert itself into the regime's "Seven Step Roadmap to Democracy." Instead, it will continue to boycott the steps of the roadmap and call for the regime to honor the results of the 1990 elections and convene the Parliament. Whether this particular decision was approved by Aung San Suu Kyi is uncertain, although she received some information about it. The NLD wants to know the USG's next steps on Burma in light of the defeat of the Burma resolution in the UN Security Council. They urge that a UN Special Envoy for Burma be appointed soon. The NLD will soon forward a request to the UN that it establish a separate office in Rangoon to handle political matters. End Summary. ¶2. (C) On March 13, National League for Democracy (NLD) spokesman U Myint Thein requested a meeting with pol/econ chief to relay several messages to the USG from the NLD "uncles." The uncles are the de-facto leaders of the NLD while the party's leaders, Aung San Suu Kyi and U Tin Oo, are held incommunicado under house arrest. U Myint Thein told us the uncles had recently received a proposal from US Campaign for Burma leader and NCGUB member Aung Din, which advocated the NLD enter the regime's "Seven Step Roadmap to Democracy" process (ref A). According to U Myint Thein, the proposal called for the NLD to enter the roadmap at the second or third step of the process. These two steps call for "establishing the conditions necessary for a disciplined democracy" and drafting the constitution. U Myint Thein was not forthcoming when pressed for more details; this limited description of Aung Din's proposal was all the uncles had authorized him to share with us. ¶3. (C) U Myint Thein said the uncles had reviewed and revised the proposal and discussed it with the NLD's Central Executive Committee (CEC),which decided to reject the proposal. Pol/econ chief asked if Aung San Suu Kyi had been given the chance to review the proposal (supposedly through her Doctor). U Myint Thein nervously replied that she had seen the proposal and agreed with the CEC's decision. U Myint Thein said that, for now, the NLD had officially decided it would not participate in any of the steps of the roadmap and would continue its policy of calling for the regime to recognize the results of the 1990 elections and convene the Parliament. ¶4. (C) Pol/econ chief urged the NLD to consider participating in future steps of the roadmap. Voluntarily excluding itself from future political dialogues, referendums, and elections would ensure the NLD's marginalization and allow the regime to shape the process to its advantage. Instead, the NLD could use the mandate it received from its victory in the 1990 elections to rally support and influence the next steps. The NLD should be a strong voice advocating a free and fair debate over the future constitution and its principles. It should step forward to demand inclusion of pro-democracy groups in the political process and campaign for a free and fair referendum consistent with international standards. By participating in the debate, the NLD could be a voice of reason to which the international community could lend its support. The regime appeared intent on moving forward with its roadmap, but the outcome was by no means final. U Myint Thein said he and many other members of the NLD agreed in principle, but the uncles had spoken and their word was final. ¶5. (C) Moving on to U.S. Burma policy, U Myint Thein said the uncles wanted to know how the U.S. intended to proceed in the UN after the defeat of the Burma resolution in the UN Security Council. He said exile contacts outside Burma had told the NLD the U.S. would propose a Burma resolution in the UN Human Rights Council and asked for details of this plan. Pol/econ chief noted this is one of many options under consideration and the U.S. was currently consulting with RANGOON 00000269 002 OF 002 like-minded countries to garner support and coordinate on next steps. U Myint Thein emphasized that the uncles wanted a UN Burma Envoy appointed as soon as possible to replace Gambari. Pol/econ chief assured him the U.S. was hard at work on this. U Myint Thein said the NLD would soon forward a request to the UN that it establish a UN office in Rangoon to handle political issues, separate from the UNDP office that currently manages UN humanitarian issues. This proposal was floated to the NLD uncles by UNSYG Gambari during his last visit to Burma (ref B). ¶6. (C) When pressed further on the proposal for entering the regime's roadmap, U Myint Thein told us the uncles are facing criticism from exile organizations that view the uncles as not being active enough. We hear this theme repeatedly from NLD youth members and pro-democracy activists who have broken with the NLD or been expelled for "lack of party discipline." U Myint Thein told us that, at the urging of the NLD Youth, the uncles had recently lifted a gag-order it had imposed on NLD members participating in American Center workshops and speaker programs. Until recently, NLD participants had been instructed not to speak up during American Center discussions so that their personal comments would not be misconstrued as official positions of the NLD. Younger members of the NLD are urging their leaders to be more pro-active. Many of them see emerging pro-democracy groups, such as the 88 Generation Students, stepping up to fill the leadership vacuum in the pro-democracy movement. We recently learned that 88 Generation leaders Min Ko Naing and Ko Ko Gyi have forwarded their own proposal to enter the roadmap process to Aung San Suu Kyi, also through her doctor. ¶7. (C) U Myint Thein took advantage of the meeting to pass another message from the uncles, who were unhappy that the Charge had invited Tuesday prayer activist and expelled NLD member Nha Ohn Hla to her March 8 Tea honoring International Women's Day. U Myint Thein was visibly embarrassed to pass such a message and quickly agreed when pol/econ chief responded that the USG wanted to include a wide-range of activists at its events and emphasized that the Charge welcomed all points of view. ¶8. (C) Comment: We have no way of knowing if Aung San Suu Kyi really gave her stamp of approval to the proposal the uncles claim to have showed her. Her doctor is the only conduit for such messages. Rather than trying to unify pro-democracy activists and strengthen their movement, the NLD seems obsessed with maintaining party discipline and control. This should not come as a surprise given the advanced years of the uncles and the fact that most were generals in the Ne Win government. The 88 Generation's recent successful campaigns offer a sharp contrast to the inactivity of the uncles beyond trying to maintain control. While the NLD carries the mandate of the 1990 elections and is the party of Aung San Suu Kyi, it remains to be seen how they will retain popular support and renew the momentum of the pro-democracy movement at this crucial time without a new injection of leadership, creativity, and action. VILLAROSA