BURMA: THE NLD OPTS OUT OF THE REGIME'S ROADMAP

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 RANGOON 000269

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EAP AND IO; PACOM FOR FPA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/11/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL BM
SUBJECT: BURMA: THE NLD OPTS OUT OF THE REGIME'S ROADMAP

REF: A. RANGOON 186


B. 06 RANGOON 1717

Classified By: P/E Chief Leslie Hayden for Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary: The NLD has decided not to insert itself
into the regime's "Seven Step Roadmap to Democracy."
Instead, it will continue to boycott the steps of the roadmap
and call for the regime to honor the results of the 1990
elections and convene the Parliament. Whether this
particular decision was approved by Aung San Suu Kyi is
uncertain, although she received some information about it.
The NLD wants to know the USG's next steps on Burma in light
of the defeat of the Burma resolution in the UN Security
Council. They urge that a UN Special Envoy for Burma be
appointed soon. The NLD will soon forward a request to the
UN that it establish a separate office in Rangoon to handle
political matters. End Summary.


2. (C) On March 13, National League for Democracy (NLD)
spokesman U Myint Thein requested a meeting with pol/econ
chief to relay several messages to the USG from the NLD
"uncles." The uncles are the de-facto leaders of the NLD
while the party's leaders, Aung San Suu Kyi and U Tin Oo, are
held incommunicado under house arrest. U Myint Thein told us
the uncles had recently received a proposal from US Campaign
for Burma leader and NCGUB member Aung Din, which advocated
the NLD enter the regime's "Seven Step Roadmap to Democracy"
process (ref A). According to U Myint Thein, the proposal
called for the NLD to enter the roadmap at the second or
third step of the process. These two steps call for
"establishing the conditions necessary for a disciplined
democracy" and drafting the constitution. U Myint Thein was
not forthcoming when pressed for more details; this limited
description of Aung Din's proposal was all the uncles had
authorized him to share with us.


3. (C) U Myint Thein said the uncles had reviewed and
revised the proposal and discussed it with the NLD's Central
Executive Committee (CEC),which decided to reject the
proposal. Pol/econ chief asked if Aung San Suu Kyi had been
given the chance to review the proposal (supposedly through
her Doctor). U Myint Thein nervously replied that she had
seen the proposal and agreed with the CEC's decision. U
Myint Thein said that, for now, the NLD had officially
decided it would not participate in any of the steps of the
roadmap and would continue its policy of calling for the
regime to recognize the results of the 1990 elections and
convene the Parliament.


4. (C) Pol/econ chief urged the NLD to consider
participating in future steps of the roadmap. Voluntarily
excluding itself from future political dialogues,
referendums, and elections would ensure the NLD's
marginalization and allow the regime to shape the process to
its advantage. Instead, the NLD could use the mandate it
received from its victory in the 1990 elections to rally
support and influence the next steps. The NLD should be a
strong voice advocating a free and fair debate over the
future constitution and its principles. It should step
forward to demand inclusion of pro-democracy groups in the
political process and campaign for a free and fair referendum
consistent with international standards. By participating in
the debate, the NLD could be a voice of reason to which the
international community could lend its support. The regime
appeared intent on moving forward with its roadmap, but the
outcome was by no means final. U Myint Thein said he and
many other members of the NLD agreed in principle, but the
uncles had spoken and their word was final.


5. (C) Moving on to U.S. Burma policy, U Myint Thein said
the uncles wanted to know how the U.S. intended to proceed in
the UN after the defeat of the Burma resolution in the UN
Security Council. He said exile contacts outside Burma had
told the NLD the U.S. would propose a Burma resolution in the
UN Human Rights Council and asked for details of this plan.
Pol/econ chief noted this is one of many options under
consideration and the U.S. was currently consulting with

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like-minded countries to garner support and coordinate on
next steps. U Myint Thein emphasized that the uncles wanted
a UN Burma Envoy appointed as soon as possible to replace
Gambari. Pol/econ chief assured him the U.S. was hard at
work on this. U Myint Thein said the NLD would soon forward
a request to the UN that it establish a UN office in Rangoon
to handle political issues, separate from the UNDP office
that currently manages UN humanitarian issues. This proposal
was floated to the NLD uncles by UNSYG Gambari during his
last visit to Burma (ref B).


6. (C) When pressed further on the proposal for entering the
regime's roadmap, U Myint Thein told us the uncles are facing
criticism from exile organizations that view the uncles as
not being active enough. We hear this theme repeatedly from
NLD youth members and pro-democracy activists who have broken
with the NLD or been expelled for "lack of party discipline."
U Myint Thein told us that, at the urging of the NLD Youth,
the uncles had recently lifted a gag-order it had imposed on
NLD members participating in American Center workshops and
speaker programs. Until recently, NLD participants had been
instructed not to speak up during American Center discussions
so that their personal comments would not be misconstrued as
official positions of the NLD. Younger members of the NLD
are urging their leaders to be more pro-active. Many of them
see emerging pro-democracy groups, such as the 88 Generation
Students, stepping up to fill the leadership vacuum in the
pro-democracy movement. We recently learned that 88
Generation leaders Min Ko Naing and Ko Ko Gyi have forwarded
their own proposal to enter the roadmap process to Aung San
Suu Kyi, also through her doctor.


7. (C) U Myint Thein took advantage of the meeting to pass
another message from the uncles, who were unhappy that the
Charge had invited Tuesday prayer activist and expelled NLD
member Nha Ohn Hla to her March 8 Tea honoring International
Women's Day. U Myint Thein was visibly embarrassed to pass
such a message and quickly agreed when pol/econ chief
responded that the USG wanted to include a wide-range of
activists at its events and emphasized that the Charge
welcomed all points of view.


8. (C) Comment: We have no way of knowing if Aung San Suu
Kyi really gave her stamp of approval to the proposal the
uncles claim to have showed her. Her doctor is the only
conduit for such messages. Rather than trying to unify
pro-democracy activists and strengthen their movement, the
NLD seems obsessed with maintaining party discipline and
control. This should not come as a surprise given the
advanced years of the uncles and the fact that most were
generals in the Ne Win government. The 88 Generation's
recent successful campaigns offer a sharp contrast to the
inactivity of the uncles beyond trying to maintain control.
While the NLD carries the mandate of the 1990 elections and
is the party of Aung San Suu Kyi, it remains to be seen how
they will retain popular support and renew the momentum of
the pro-democracy movement at this crucial time without a new
injection of leadership, creativity, and action.
VILLAROSA