BURMA: WHAT DIALOGUE? JUST ARRESTS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 RANGOON 001129

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EAP AND IO; PACOM FOR FPA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/20/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM BM
SUBJECT: BURMA: WHAT DIALOGUE? JUST ARRESTS


Classified By: Pol Officer Sean O'Neill for Reasons 1.4 (b) & (d)


1. (C) Summary. According to an NLD spokesman, the regime
has not responded to Aung San Suu Kyi's request for her to
have additional, regular meetings with NLD officials. On
November 20, authorities detained six more pro-democracy
activists, four of whom remain in custody. One of the
released detainees speculated the arrests could be an attempt
to intimidate opposition activists to retract their criticism
of the regime's "roadmap to democracy." U Gambira's mother
declined an offer of assistance from pro-democracy lawyers,
choosing instead to wait a few more weeks to see how her
son's case develops. End Summary.

WAITING FOR DIALOGUE
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2. (C) NLD spokesman U Nyan Win told us the regime has not
informed them when party officials will next be able to meet
with Aung San Suu Kyi, a right she has described as critical
to the dialogue process. Neither has the government shown
any willingness to accept the two liaisons Aung San Suu Kyi
offered, according to U Nyan Win. Additionally, he reported
regime liaison Aung Kyi has still made no attempt to
independently contact the NLD. Nonetheless, he expressed
hope that party leaders could meet with Aung San Suu Kyi
within the next week, pointing out permission to do so is
usually granted on short notice.

MORE ARRESTS
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3. (C) Authorities arrested six pro-democracy activists on
November 20. Four still remain in custody. Police arrested
Zomi National Congress president Pu Chin Sian Thang at his
home on the morning of November 20, according to family
members. Despite assurances from police that he would be
released later that afternoon, family members have not heard
from him in over 24 hours. Authorities have neither
acknowledged his arrest nor revealed where he is being held.
This is the second time Pu Chin Sian Thang has been detained
in as many months. In early November he was released after
having been detained and interrogated for 33 days.


4. (C) NLD spokesman U Han Thar Myint told us NLD MP-elect
Dr. Myint Naing was taken from his home in Sagaing Division
the afternoon of November 20. Embassy contacts said they
believe he is being interrogated at the Shwe Bo Township
Government Guest House although authorities have not
acknowledged his arrest and no one has heard from him since
he was taken yesterday.


5. (C) Family members reported authorities arrested
seventy-year-old Rakhine pro-democracy activist U Ohn Tin and
sixty-year-old Kachin activist Khun Tu in their respective
homes on the evening of November 20. Their family members
told us they have not heard from them since then and do now
know where they were taken. Both men had worked with the
Embassy closely in the past and are well respected in their
communities.


6. (C) Two other pro-democracy activists, Arakan League for
Democracy Joint Secretary U Aye Thar Aung and NLD MP-elect U
Soe Win, reported that they were taken from their homes the
morning of November 20 and held at Aung Tha Byay
Interrogation Center before being released at noon. They
told us authorities informed them they would be interviewed
by a senior police official, but no one came to question them
during their four-hour detention. Both men are now at home.


7. (C) While authorities have neither acknowledged nor given
a reason for these detentions, U Aye Thar Aung pointed out
that four of those arrested were involved in drafting a
letter to UNSYG Ban Ki Moon on August 1 proposing an
alternative to the regime's "roadmap to democracy." The
letter, signed by 92 MPs-elect, set forth an alternate
seven-step roadmap to democracy and called on the UNSYG to
pressure the Burmese regime to accept the proposals. U Aye

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Thar Aung speculated these detentions may be an attempt to
coerce these men and others to abandon their proposal and
publicly support the regime's plan.

U GAMBIRA UPDATE
--------------


8. (C) Legal activist Ko Nge Lay told us she spoke with the
mother of detained monk U Gambira on November 20. According
to Ko Nge Lay, U Gambira's mother declined an offer of
assistance from a group of opposition lawyers saying she
preferred to wait another month to see how her son's case
develops. Ko Nge Lay also attempted to clarify an Irrawaddy
report in which she was quoted saying that her son had been
charged with high treason. She told our contact that, in
fact, she said that she thought her son might be charged with
treason, but clarified she did not know what charges, if any,
had been leveled against him.

COMMENT
--------------


9. (C) The regime continues to systematically muzzle the
opposition through arrest and intimidation. Now that Than
Shwe escaped ASEAN scrutiny, he sees no need to follow
through on commitments that Aung San Suu Kyi would be able to
meet regularly with her party. These actions demonstrate
that the Than Shwe regime has no intention of embarking on a
genuine dialogue or opening up. His bet that he would be
able to move forward on his plan without interference from
the international community appears to be succeeding. End
Comment.
VILLAROSA