BURMA: FOUR STEPS BACKWARD, TWO STEPS FORWARD

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 RANGOON 001119

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DEPT FOR EAP/MLS, DRL, AND IO
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E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/18/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM BM
SUBJECT: BURMA: FOUR STEPS BACKWARD, TWO STEPS FORWARD

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Classified By: P/E Chief Leslie Hayden for Reasons 1.4 (b) & (d)


1. (C) Summary: In his first public address since the
September protests and regime crackdown, Senior General Than
Shwe asserted the government would move forward with its
"roadmap to democracy," and gave no indication he would alter
the process to make it more inclusive. Than Shwe has sent
his hard-line Minister of Culture to demand ethnic cease-fire
groups make public statements declaring Aung San Suu Kyi does
not represent them. Aung San Suu Kyi was taken to the
Government Guest House again today for what we believe to be
another meeting with Minister of Relations Aung Kyi. Aung
San Suu Kyi would like a message passed to Gambari informing
him of her two objectives: establishing a tripartite
dialogue with the regime, ethnic minority representatives,
and herself; and amending the roadmap to include her
participation (action request in paragraph 5). Another
monastery was reportedly raided in Rangoon and one monk
detained. End Summary.

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Business as Usual for Than Shwe
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2. (U) In an address to the regime's mass member
organization, the Union Solidarity and Development
Association (USDA),Senior General Than Shwe stated his
intention to move full speed ahead with the "roadmap to
discipline-flourishing democracy." It was Than Shwe's first
address since the September demonstrations and resulting
crackdown. He gave no indication he would alter the roadmap
to include Aung San Suu Kyi and her National League for
Democracy (NLD) Party. Than Shwe reiterated that the
National Convention had been successfully completed and noted
that the drafting of the constitution would move forward. He
mentioned nothing regarding modifying either of theses
processes to meet the concerns of political dissidents or the
international community. Indeed, the regime's mouthpiece
daily, the New Light of Myanmar, announced the Constitution
Drafting Committee would convene December 3, with no mention
of a revision of its participants.

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Sabotaging the Dialogue
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3. (SBU) In another indication Than Shwe intends to sabotage
the dialogue process, hard-line Minister of Culture Khin Aung
Myint has been meeting with ethnic cease-fire groups,
ordering them to issue statements disavowing Aung San Suu Kyi
as their representative. The statements are virtually
identical and have been published daily in the New Light of
Myanmar. The Kachin Independence Organization (KIA) and the
New Mon State Party (NMSP) both refused to issue such
statements. Consequently, KIO offices and houses of senior
KIO members were raided in Myitkyina on November 17, and
several members' cell phones confiscated. The raid was
reportedly ordered by Northern Commander Major General Ohn
Myint and was the first raid conducted against the KIO in the
13 years since the organization signed a cease-fire agreement
with the Burma Army.


4. (U) The NMSP issued a statement on November 16 endorsing
Aung San Suu Kyi's call for political dialogue and
underscoring the fact that the proposals they submitted to
the National Convention were "ignored" and "rejected." The
statement also said that a political dialogue could only be
meaningful if all ethnic nationalities were included.

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Aung San Suu Kyi Meets Liaison Again
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5. (C) We observed Aung San Suu Kyi moving from her home to
the Government Guest House today, reportedly for another
meeting with Minister of Relations Aung Kyi. During a
meeting with poloff, Aung San Suu Kyi's doctor, Dr. Tin Myo
Win, passed along a message from Aung San Suu Kyi for

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Gambari. She has two main objectives: the establishment of a
tripartite dialogue that includes the regime, herself, and
ethnic representatives; and amending the regime's roadmap to
include her participation. Tin Myo Win said that Aung San
Suu Kyi had established a code word with Gambari: "Imani" so
that he would know that messages passed to him from third
parties were really from her. Tin Myo Win plans to visit
Aung San Suu Kyi again on November 22. Action requested:
please pass this message to Special Envoy Gambari.

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Regime Continues to Persecute Monks
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6. (SBU) On November 15 approximately 150 USDA members,
local officials, and police, raided a monastery in New Dagon
Township, in Rangoon, stealing the monastery's funds and
detaining a monk, U Sanda Wara. Media reports state that the
regime is attempting to evict monks from 39 monasteries in
the area, purportedly over a land dispute. We have been
unable to contact the family of U Gambira, a detained monk
who helped organize the September demonstrations, to verify
reports that he has been charged and sentenced for treason.
Treason has been a common charge against political activists,
including those arrested May 1 in front of the American
Center. The government controlled newspapers here also
indicated that those individuals still detained will likely
be tried for treason and terrorism.

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Comment
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7. (C) Than Shwe's speech and the regime's blatant attempt
to divide the ethnic cease-fire groups from Aung San Suu Kyi
offer another indication that Than Shwe has no intention of
entering any dialogue that would result in significant
compromise or loosen the military's stranglehold on power.
He will use the appearance of setting up a dialogue to keep
international pressure at bay for as long as he can. In the
meantime, attacks on Burma's Buddhist clergy continue while
the most effective pro-democracy activists remain in prison
facing criminal charges. Our public statements should
highlight the obvious contradictions from the professed
willingness to enter a genuine dialogue. We should also
inform Burma's ASEAN partners of this to ensure Burma hears
at ASEAN meetings this week that they are serious about not
returning to business as usual, even though Than Shwe is not.
End comment.

VILLAROSA