HOPE AND FEAR IN BURMA'S MON STATE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 RANGOON 001104

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EAP/MLS, DRL, AND IO
PACOM FOR FPA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/28/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL ELAB BM
SUBJECT: HOPE AND FEAR IN BURMA'S MON STATE


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Classified By: CDA Villarosa for Reasons 1.4 (b) & (d)


1. (C) Summary: Charge visited Mawlamyaing, Burma's third
largest city and capital of Mon State, November 11 and 12.
She met with NLD party members, who described themselves as
hopeful that change would come soon, but still distrustful of
the Burmese military. They indicated that they have regular
quiet discussions with the military and civilian authorities,
which might account for the relatively restrained response
against local protestors in September. A Catholic Bishop
explained that while everyone wants change, the people do not
know how to make this happen. Like other Burmese cities, the
monks have disappeared from this major center of Buddhist
studies, reportedly ordered to return to their homes. During
the drive to Mawlamyiang, we passed over 40 military trucks
headed east, which appeared loaded with rice. Our
interlocutors in Mawlamyaing opined that this would be used
to support Burmese Army and allied DKBA troops launching a
dry season offensive against the Karens. One source reported
that the prisoners in Mawlamyaing prison had been released to
serve as porters for the Burmese Army in this offensive. End
Summary.

Situation Getting Worse
--------------


2. (C) Everyone with whom we met described a grim situation
getting worse. Mawlamyaing was once a busy, prosperous port
city. During our drive we saw extensive rice fields, rubber
plantations, and sugarcane fields. More recently, people
have begun planting oil palm. None of these products move by
sea. Most trade now consists of smuggled goods to and from
Thailand transiting the region in trucks. One NLD member
described the current situation as "no business, no jobs, no
health, no education." Asked about the quality of hospitals,
another replied that they were "only buildings with nothing
in them." The Catholic Bishop of Mawlamyaing elaborated on
the poverty afflicting his diocese, explaining that many
villages had no men because they are working in Thailand. In
addition, crony businessmen allied with the military took
advantage of villagers lack of understanding of their rights
to confiscate their land. He had not heard of forced labor
on the plantations, but said that villagers had to porter for
the military and provide bamboo and thatch for shelters for
the military at the onset of the rainy season.


3. (C) NLD members reported large protests in Mawlamyaing in
September led by monks, with NLD assistance. The Bishop
described the local military commanders as having a "good
pulse" on the city, so they did not need to use violence to
break up the demonstrations. Nor did anyone report any
arrests; only one person was taken in for questioning and
released the same day, according to NLD members. However,
they said that most monks had been ordered to return to their
homes. Mawlamyaing is a major center for Buddhist studies,
and had an estimated 13,000 monks affiliated with 800
monasteries, according to our interlocutors. As in other
Burmese cities now, we saw very few monks walking around
town. The Bishop reported that the Karens had considered
joining the September protests, which was different from
their reaction in 1988. He considered this a sign that
people were coming together against the military. However,
he questioned whether young people would have the capacity to
lead Burma given their lack of education. He added that the
rural people do not care about politics, and just want to be
left alone.

NLD Hopeful; Everyone Else Afraid
--------------


4. (C) Charge met with six NLD members living in Mawlamyaing
to hear their views of recent political developments. They
appeared well-briefed about the just concluded visit of UN
Envoy Gambari and the statement he released from NLD General
Secretary Aung San Suu Kyi, thanks to VOA and BBC radio

SIPDIS
broadcasts. They repeatedly referred to the need for a "time
bound" political dialogue, which ASSK had mentioned in her
statement. While doubting the Burmese military would change,

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they expressed hope that change would come soon. They did
not have any set period in mind, although quickly responded
negatively when Charge asked if they could wait ten more
years. After discussing among themselves they settled on one
year as an appropriate time frame.


5. (C) Charge asked about their plans for a future political
transition. Although they claimed to be preparing for a
transition, they seemed confused when asked what their
priorities would be. When Charge noted they had discussed
the problems of poverty, food shortages, health and
education, one volunteered that inflation should be a
priority. When Charge asked what he thought should be done
to control inflation, he replied "control prices." They
readily welcomed the prospect of technical assistance from
the World Bank and other donors, once a real political
transition got underway.


6. (C) Only seventeen people remain as formal members of the
NLD in Mawlamyaing due to official harassment. However, they
added that many more people are sympathetic to their
activities, but are afraid to become active in NLD. The six
Charge met said they sometimes get questioned about their
activities two or three times a day. They expected to be
questioned about their meeting with Charge, but did not
expect any further problems claiming they were used to the
intimidation. They have found the military and police
somewhat sympathetic to their activities as well. They said
lower level officers and troops were unhappy with the current
situation, but were afraid of their higher ups. They also
meet regularly to discuss the current situation with the
local civilian authorities, whom they also described as
sympathetic, but afraid. The Catholic Bishop confirmed that
people were afraid, saying they want change, but they do not
know how to make it happen. Everyone is afraid of the people
above them; they "count on U.S. support," he added.

Christian Ecumenism; No Muslims or Buddhists
--------------


7. (C) Catholic Bishop Raymong Saw Po Ray oversees a diocese
that encompasses Mon State, Tennassarim Division, and the
southern part of Karen State, with approximately 7000
Catholics, mostly ethnic Karen. He said most of his
parishioners lived scattered throughout southern Burma with
only two parishes of approximately 600 parishioners each in
Mawlamyaing. He said that Muslims outnumber Christians in
this area, but they are concentrated in the urban areas.
Another person estimated the Muslims as making up 10-15 % of
the population.


8. (C) Charge inquired about a new building under
construction on his compound, since Christians and Muslims
report difficulities around the country securing approvals.
The Bishop agreed it was difficult, saying that the work
often had to stop and start. He said the building would only
be two stories, rather than the three the Church had sought.
Authorities justified restrictions on the Christians by
saying that otherwise they would have to give the same to the
Muslims. The Bishop implied that the Christians ultimately
faced fewer restrictions than the Muslims. Although we saw
many large mosques around the city, most were in a state of
poor repair with no visible new construction. Most of the
churches, on the other hand, appeared in better condition.


9. (C) Noting the large number of religious buildings she
saw in Mawlamyaing, Charge asked about contacts among the
various religious leaders. The Bishop replied that Baptist,
Anglican and Catholic leaders regularly met. However he
added that they had cancelled their annual unity gathering in
October due to the recent protests in order to avoid
attracting negative attention by the military. The Christian
leaders, he said, would try to hold the gathering in January
when the memories of the recent demonstrations were less
strong. He said the military authorities discourage contacts
between Christians and Muslims, but the Christians had held
some quiet discussions with individual monks.


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Karen Offensive Getting Underway
--------------


10. (C) Charge mentioned the 40 military trucks she had seen
on the drive to Mawlamyaing to everyone she met, which
appeared to be carrying bags of rice. Most said they were
likely headed to Hpa-an in Karen State for the annual Burma
Army offensive against the Karen insurgents. The Bishop
speculated that some of the rice would be for DKBA troops
allied with the Burma Army. One of the NLD members
speculated that the rice might be for monks, but said most
would refuse it. A former translator for ICRC said that
prisoners from Mawlamyaing prison had been sent to Hpa-an to
work as porters for the military (a common use of prisoners
in Burma).


11. (C) Comment: Given the other reports we have received
about a renewed offensive against the Karen, we feel certain
the military trucks we observed were supplying the troops.
On the return trip we saw maybe ten trucks carrying barrels
and vegetables, but did not see any carrying crates or
troops. The reports from Mawlamyaing NLD of discontent among
lower level military and civilian officials tracks with what
we have heard elsewhere. It gives some hope that in the
event of a real political transition, local authorities might
be helpful to smooth the transition. But everyone is still
afraid. This shows how effectively fear keeps discontent
from boiling over in Burma and the military keeps control.
Instead people hope that the U.S. will come in and make
change happen for them. Overcoming their fears will require
significantly more unity among all the people than we have
seen here or anyplace else in Burma. End comment.
VILLAROSA