BURMA'S DOMESTIC AVIATION INDUSTRY NOSEDIVES

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 RANGOON 001102 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE FOR EAP/MLS, INR/EAP, EEB/TRA ICAO FOR LFAUX-GABLE PACOM FOR FPA TREASURY FOR OASIA E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/13/2017 TAGS: ECON PREL PGOV EAIR BM SUBJECT: BURMA'S DOMESTIC AVIATION INDUSTRY NOSEDIVES REF: A. RANGOON 1098 ¶B. RANGOON 1048 RANGOON 00001102 001.2 OF 003 Classified By: Economic Officer Samantha A. Carl-Yoder for Reasons 1.4 (b and d) ¶1. (C) Summary. Burma, the aviation hub of Southeast Asia fifty years ago, now struggles to service its domestic market. With tourist levels down more than 60 percent, Burma's aviation industry is in a state of disarray. Four domestic airlines currently operate in Burma -- Air Bagan, Myanmar Airways, Yangon Airways, and Air Mandalay -- all of which have seen an average 60 percent drop in ticket sales since September. Three of the four airlines have known maintenance problems, with Air Mandalay having the best safety record. According to industry insiders, none of the airlines make a large profit, and many might not be able to stay in business if tourism levels continue to drop. End Summary. Largest Carrier But for How Long? -------------- ¶2. (C) Air Bagan Ltd, owned by regime crony Tay Za, is Burma's only private airline. Established in 2004, it is also Burma's largest air carrier, with eight planes: two A310s, two ATR-72s, two ATR-42s, and two Fokker 100s. Air Bagan flies 25 domestic flights daily, servicing 17 domestic destinations. In 2006, Air Bagan controlled more than 35 percent of the domestic market. U Yoa Sha, Deputy Director for Operations at the Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA) implied that Air Bagan received the best flight times because of Tay Za's closeness to the senior generals. The better the time slot, the more business an airline receives, he declared. ¶3. (C) In June 2007, Air Bagan expanded into the international market, with flights to Bangkok and Singapore. Due to limited success in those markets, the sharp drop in tourism after the September 2007 crackdown on peaceful protestors, and the effect of new U.S. sanctions, the company recently halted all flights to Singapore, and may "temporarily" suspend its Bangkok service (Ref A). Air Bagan has also taken a hit on the domestic front because of declining tourism levels. Airline ticket sales are down more than 60 percent in October compared to last year, Air Bagan Managing Director Soe Win informed us. Soe Win was optimistic that tourists would return to Burma, and predicted that Air Bagan would earn more than $100,000 in profits in 2007, almost double 2006 earnings. ¶4. (C) Although Soe Win touted Air Bagan as the future of Burma's aviation industry, industry insiders warned us about the safety of Air Bagan's planes. One of Air Bagan's former pilots told us that the company cuts many corners when it comes to safety: instead of purchasing spare parts, Air Bagan takes parts from other planes. The DGCA, acting on an order from the senior generals, does not inspect Air Bagan's planes to ensure they meet international safety standards. Although the company, per its agreement with the Singapore Civil Aviation Authority, had maintenance contracts for the A310s, Air Bagan did not conduct regular maintenance on the planes used domestically. He also informed us that Air Bagan's pilots, many of whom are from Yemen, were not well trained. "Knowing what I know, I would not fly Air Bagan," he declared. Flag Carrier in A Sorry State -------------- RANGOON 00001102 002.2 OF 003 ¶4. (C) State-owned Myanmar Airways, the domestic flag carrier, began operations in 1948 and currently flies to 29 destinations within Burma. Although Myanmar Airways owns six planes, it only operates four - one Fokker F27 and three Fokker F28s - and has grounded the other two because of "mechanical problems." Air Bagan Managing Director warned us against flying with Myanmar Airways, noting that it has the highest number of safety incidents of all Burmese carriers. Brett Melzer (PROTECT),owner of Balloons over Bagan, echoed these warnings, and noted that Myanmar Airways' insurance bill was three times higher than any other Burmese airline. During a conversation with insurance company Lloyds of London (which insures all Burmese carriers),the insurance representative acknowledged that Myanmar Airways is unsafe, but informed Melzer that "even if Myanmar Airways crashes twice in one year, its premiums are so high that Lloyds would still make a profit." (Note: We advise Americans to avoid taking Myanmar Airways because of safety concerns. The UN and several other Embassies also advise its employees against using the airline. End Note.) ¶5. (C) Although Myanmar Airways declined to meet with us, U Kyaw Tan, Director of Sun Far ticketing agency, informed us that Myanmar Airways has seen a dramatic drop in ticket sales in 2007. Most tourists shy away from Myanmar Airways, he said, and will only fly with the airline if there are no other available options. In 2006, Myanmar Airlines controlled 30 percent of the market; in 2007, the share has dropped to 20 percent. U Kyaw Tan questioned whether Myanmar Airways will make a profit in 2007, but noted that the company receives financial assistance from the GOB to keep operations afloat. Air Mandalay: Still Going Strong -------------- ¶6. (C) Air Mandalay, a joint venture between the GOB, Singapore, and Malaysian-owned Premier Airlines, was formed in 1994 and currently flies to nine destinations in Burma, as well as to Chiang Mai and Kunming, China. Air Mandalay operates three planes, two ATR-72s and one ATR-42, and employs more than 2,000 people. Despite flying to fewer destinations than Myanmar Air and Air Bagan, Air Mandalay held more than 25 percent of the domestic market share in ¶2006. Air Mandalay CEO Selva Kumar told us that Air Mandalay has no plans to expand its operations or increase the frequency of international flights. Other airlines, such as Air Bagan, expanded too quickly and now suffer from lack of financial planning, he stated. ¶7. (C) According Kumar, Air Mandalay is the most profitable of all the Burmese airlines. He expected this year's profits to fall, however, noting that the recent political events translated into fewer tourists. Air Mandalay's bookings have declined more than 50 percent compared to last year's numbers, and Kumar doubted that the situation would improve by January. Air Mandalay normally flies eight flights daily, he stated. Due to lack of customers, Air Mandalay has consolidated flights and now flies an average of four flights a day. October through March is Burma's high season, he explained. If tourism companies and airlines cannot make their money during high season, they may find themselves laying off staff or going out of business. Yangon Airways: Not a Player -------------- ¶8. (C) Yangon Airways, the smallest domestic airline and RANGOON 00001102 003.2 OF 003 joint venture between the GOB and Krong-Sombat Company of Thailand, was established in 1996. With two ATR-72s, it services six domestic locations. Yangon Airways has a mere six percent of the market, and has no plans to expand operations, according to the DGCA. Industry insiders also warned us about the viability of Yangon Airway's operations, noting that the company does not have the financial wherewithal to maintain its two planes. Blame the Sanctions -------------- ¶9. (C) Many of the airlines pointed to recent U.S., European, and Australian sanctions as the reason behind their current economic troubles. Air Bagan's representatives complained that in addition to not being able to purchase spare parts, Rolls Royce and Pratt and Whitney, the two companies that maintain Air Bagan's engines, recently cancelled their maintenance contracts (Ref A). Air Mandalay CEO Selva Kumar lamented that because of the U.S. financial sanctions, companies cannot accept credit card payments, and thus cannot accept internet reservations. He also pointed out that sanctions hinder travel to Burma. Tourists do not want to travel to Burma because they must carry thousands of dollars with them, he said. Instead of hurting the government, U.S. sanctions hurt legitimate businesses, such as the tourism industry, he complained. Comment -------------- ¶10. (C) Most of Burma's domestic airlines had maintenance problems long before recent sanctions were enacted. Tourism has suffered in Burma this year because of the widely-broadcast images of the regime's brutal crackdown on peaceful protesters; civil unrest always discourages tourism. Burma's aviation industry, like many businesses here, suffers from poor regulation, lack of oversight, and economic mismanagement. However, Burma is a large country and other forms of transport, which are extremely time consuming, are crumbling. It will require a transition to better governance and market-oriented policies before Burma will have a safe and healthy aviation industry. End comment. VILLAROSA