BURMA: REGIME TO PNG UN COUNTRY CHIEF

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 RANGOON 001084 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR EAP/MLS, DRL, AND IO PACOM FOR FPA E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/01/2017 TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM BM SUBJECT: BURMA: REGIME TO PNG UN COUNTRY CHIEF RANGOON 00001084 001.2 OF 003 Classified By: P/E Chief Leslie Hayden for Reasons 1.4 (b) & (d) ¶1. (SBU) Summary: On the eve of Gambari's visit to Burma, the GOB announced that UN Resident Coordinator Charles Petrie was no longer welcome. Despite the UN's desire to maintain control of Gambari's schedule, Petrie was informed today the regime had its own schedule for Gambari and he should report to Nay Pyi Taw on arrival. Military troops have reportedly been placed around monasteries in Mandalay, and there is some military movement around monasteries in Rangoon. Five 88 Generation Students members were released yesterday evening and the leader of Human Rights Defenders and Promoters was released this morning. The regime is reportedly reshuffling some regional commanders and top military positions, including the Central Commander. End summary. -------------- Burma to Expel UN Resident Coordinator -------------- ¶2. (SBU) On the eve of UN Special Envoy Gambari's visit to Burma, the regime announced that "the Government of the Union of Myanmar does not want Mr. Petrie to continue to serve in Myanmar, especially at this time when the cooperation between Myanmar and the United Nations is crucial." The announcement was made via diplomatic note, copies of which were passed out to diplomats as they departed a briefing today in Nay Pyi Taw. The diplomats had been invited for a briefing on economic development. Instead, they discovered on arrival that the briefing was to correct a "one-sided" press announcement issued by the UN on September 25. Petrie, who attended the briefing, told econoff that he was not sure how today's notice would affect Gambari's upcoming visit and that he would consult with the UN Country Team after returning to Rangoon this evening. Petrie said the GOB had not told him to leave by a specific date, and surmised the regime would negotiate his departure date with UN headquarters in New York. ¶3. (C) The move is in response to an announcement Petrie issued on behalf of the UN Country Team on UN Day. The statement noted that basic human needs were not being met and that Burma's estimated per capita GDP was less than half of Cambodia's or Bangladesh's, and called upon the government to "take all necessary measures to address the political, economic, humanitarian, and human rights" needs of the people. The comparison reportedly infuriated the regime and prompted the Foreign Ministry to issue a strong protest complaining the UN's statement was "very negative and deliberately ignores the successful conclusion of the National Convention," and continued that the UN's decision to issue the statement had "jeopardized the good working relations existing between the Ministry and the Country Team." At their meeting this evening, the UN Country Team will formulate their position on the GOB's notice. Petrie has requested USG support for their decision. Discussion between UN Country Team members on the return flight from Nay Pyi Taw indicated the UN Country Team would not elect to pull out of Burma, but that UN heads of agency in Burma would offer up their resignations in support of Petrie. -------------- More on Gambari's Schedule -------------- ¶4. (C) Petrie told econoff that Gambari was scheduled to arrive in Rangoon tomorrow at 4:00 p.m. from Singapore. While the UN has encouraged Gambari to demonstrate he is controlling his own agenda, the Burmese government informed Petrie today that they have a schedule for Gambari spanning the dates of November 3-7 and that he is to proceed directly to Nay Pyi Taw. Petrie said he recommended to Gambari that he meet with monks, 88 Generation Students and student activists, ethnic groups, NGOs, and the dip corps. Petrie also recommended all meetings be held at UNDP headquarters in Rangoon and not the Government Guest House. -------------- RANGOON 00001084 002.2 OF 003 Military Positioning Around Monasteries -------------- ¶5. (C) 88 Generation Leader Toe Kyaw Hlaing told pol/econ chief today that monks in Mandalay had told him the police had found out about their plans to demonstrate and that military troops were beginning to be positioned around "activist" monasteries there. He had also been told pay phones in Mandalay had been disabled to remove another coordination mechanism the monks had been using to organize marches. Additionally, pol/econ chief observed two military trucks full of troops stopping at a Rangoon monastery the morning of November 2. Later that day, poloff drove throughout Rangoon but observed no increased military or police presence around major pagodas or monasteries. ¶6. (C) Toe Kyaw Hlaing asked us to pass a message to Gambari on behalf of the 88 Generation Students. They request Gambari to open an international observer office in Rangoon to objectively advise Gambari on the political situation in the country. The 88 Generation also requests that Gambari ask the regime what they plan to do if the Burmese people reject the new constitution in a nationwide referendum. ¶7. (C) Toe Kyaw Hlaing emphasized that any referendum on a future constitution needs to be conducted in accord with international standards and closely monitored by international election monitors. The opposition should be given a certain degree of freedom to have a wide range of debate on the pros and cons of the draft constitution. Before their arrests, 88 Generation leaders had been preparing to push for such a debate. Their group had made copies of the 104 principles for the constitution decided on at the National Convention, he explained. The copies were distributed to "study groups" whose members were instructed to circle any of the principles they objected to and then to explain why and how the principle could be changed. Toe Kyaw Hlaing argued that such a debate was needed. The opposition did not object to all 104 principles, he emphasized, only some, but these could be revised to find a mutually acceptable solution. -------------- More Prisoners Freed -------------- ¶8. (C) Late yesterday evening, five members of the 88 Generation Students were released, Toe Kyaw Hlaing reported. They were Zaw Min (Ko Ko Gyi's roommate),Yin Tun, Thi Ha Thu, Zaw Nyunt, and Tun Tun Win. The leader of Human Rights Defenders and Promoters, Myint Aye, was also released today. He told us that before his release, authorities told him he must sign a letter stating he had broken the law and would be punished if he did so again. He refused, and was finally released after he consented to sign a statement which said he would obey and respect the law. At the same time, we have received reports from activists they are being told by authorities they cannot leave their homes this weekend, a likely attempt to prevent any protests during Gambari's visit. -------------- Military Reshuffle -------------- ¶9. (C) Rumors are circulating today of a shake-up of the regional commanders. A third country DAO reported to our DATT today that both the Rangoon and Central Commanders had been removed from their positions (Central Command oversees Mandalay). We separately heard from our sources that the Rangoon commander is still in place, while the Central Commander, Khin Zaw, had been promoted to head a new position, Bureau of Special Operations 6, which reportedly will oversee the Nay Pyi Taw Command. Tin Ngwe, Commander of Nay Pyi Taw Regional Operations, has reportedly been appointed as Central Commander. ¶10. (C) Our source also told us that Maung Bo, Commander of RANGOON 00001084 003.2 OF 003 Special Operations 4 (Karen and Mon States and Tenasserim Division) has been appointed Inspector General of Defense Services and that North West Commander Thar Aye will replace him. South West Commander Thura Myint Aung has been appointed Adjutant General (a position previously held by now-PM Thein Sein) and Kyaw Swe, the Principal of the Defense Services Academy, will take over the South West Command. We are still trying to confirm this information. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶11. (C) The GOB's decision to PNG Petrie on the eve of Gambari's visit exhibits their utter lack of political sensitivity and public relations skills. The decision to PNG Petrie directly contradicts their claims of cooperation with the UN. Their determination, once again, to control Gambari's schedule and movements does not surprise us. Than Shwe has effectively said that discussions with the UN on the political way forward will be on Than Shwe's terms alone. End comment. VILLAROSA