MEMBER LACKS CONFIDENCE IN CONSTITUTION COMMISSION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 RANGOON 001057 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR EAP/MLS, DRL, AND IO PACOM FOR FPA E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/24/2017 TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM BM SUBJECT: MEMBER LACKS CONFIDENCE IN CONSTITUTION COMMISSION RANGOON 00001057 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: P/E Chief Leslie Hayden for Reasons 1.4 (b) & (d) ¶1. (C) Summary. Tun Aung Chain, a member of the Commission for Drafting the State Constitution, told us he harbors little hope that the process will lead to meaningful democracy in Burma. He explained that while the commission consists of 54 members representing various ethnic groups and professions, only the top three members have any real influence over the constitution. He has been informed that the commission will convene in the second or third week of November for what could be several months and predicted the referendum would take place in October 2008. End Summary. Drafting the Constitution -------------- ¶2. (C) On October 24 Poloff met with Tun Aung Chain, a member of the newly formed Commission for Drafting the State Constitution. He said that he learned of his membership only by reading his name in an article published in the regime's mouthpiece daily, The New Light of Myanmar, which listed the delegates. He claimed the regime had not consulted in advance regarding their intention to name him to the committee. He knows and has worked with a number of the other members and guessed that many of them learned the same way, although he has not yet spoken with them directly. On October 24, Dr. Thaung Nyunt, the organizer of the meetings on the constitution, called him to tell him that the commission would convene in the second or third week of November and that the meetings would last a few months. Tun Aung Chain described the commission as powerless to make changes or promote healthy democracy. He expects to be given a pre-drafted constitution, and the commission's job will simply be to "translate it into legalese." ¶3. (C) Tun Aung Chain said that the only people on the list of commission members with any real power in the drafting process are 84-year-old chairmand and Supreme Court Justice U Aung Toe, U Aye Maung, the vice-chairman of the Attorney-General's office, and U Thaung Nyunt a legal advisor of the Attorney-General whose office is drafting the constitution. These three men also had significant power during the National Convention when drafting the guiding principles for the constitution. He said other members of 
the commission represented a wide range of academics, legal professionals, and ethnic minorities, but would have almost no real drafting power and no leeway to change the "basic principles" decided on at the National Convention. He explained that the diverse make-up of the committee was designed to show the international community that the constitution drafting process is inclusive of all interests, but described the members - other than the powerful trio - as mere "window dressing." Referendum Expected in 2008 -------------- ¶3. (C) Tun Aung Chain predicted the national referendum on the constitution would take place after the rainy season next year in October 2008, although he has received no official word about this. He believed the government feels pressure from the international community to carry out its Roadmap to Democracy and would therefore push the constitution drafting process and the referendum through. Tun Aung Chain had little faith the regime would allow any more free and fair debate on the merits of the new constitution than it did in the closed and manipulated National Convention process. ¶4. (C) When asked how he thought the people would receive the new constitution, he said that it is already too late for the government or the Roadmap to have much legitimacy among the public. If they had pushed for the same measure ten years ago when the economy was better and the 1990 election was fresh in people's minds, there might have been a better chance of gaining popular support, he speculated. While he could not say how the government planned to get 50 percent of the electorate to vote in favor of the draft constitution, he guessed they would use any means necessary to do so. He RANGOON 00001057 002.2 OF 002 elaborated that the vote could only be legitimate if the ballot were secret, something he doubted the government would allow. Little Hope for Real Democracy -------------- ¶5. (C) Tun Aung Chain doubted that the new constitution would lead to real democracy in Burma because the military would be allowed to hold 25 percent of the seats in any future parliament. He allowed that somewhere in the future, Burma might have a healthy democracy based on this constitution, but only after significant revisions which could take years to accomplish. The current process, he emphasized, does not constitute a genuine effort to create democracy. ¶6. (C) Comment. Tun Aung Chain is the first member of the Commission for Drafting the State Constitution that we have met since the announcement of its formation on October 19. His complete lack of confidence in the process further reinforces our view that the Roadmap is a sham designed to perpetuate military rule in Burma. Than Shwe continues to insist he is moving Burma toward democracy, while excluding anyone who might disagree with him. In his determination to move forward with his plan, he seems to be betting that his neighbors will go along, as they were willing to do until the September protests. We should emphasize to China, India, and ASEAN members that the Roadmap has lost all credibility and only a more inclusive dialogue among all the key political players will get Burma back on track to political stability. End comment. VILLAROSA