BURMA: CRITICISM OF "ROADMAP"

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 RANGOON 001043

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EAP AND IO; PACOM FOR FPA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/20/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM BM
SUBJECT: BURMA: CRITICISM OF "ROADMAP"


Classified By: Pol Officer Sean O'Neill for Reasons 1.4 (b) & (d)


1. (C) Summary. A etnic Karen former National Convention
delegate told us the September crackdown makes it highly
unlikely the public will ever support the results of the
regime's so-called "roadmap to democracy." He said several
of his fellow delegates have privately voiced concern over
the recent abuses and have lost confidence in the "roadmap."
They said dialogue is the only way forward to reconciliation
and democracy, but are skeptical of the government's
willingness to compromise which could then lead to further
unrest and bloodshed. They described most of the members of
the newly-announced Constitutional Commission as highly
capable, but did not believe the Commission members will be
permitted to play a role in shaping the substance of the
eventual constitution satisfactory to Than Shwe. End Summary.


2. (C) On October 22, Dr Simon Tha and his wife Dr. Rebecca
Htin told Poloff they were distressed by last month's events
and believe the crackdown has doomed the roadmap's chances of
success. Simon Tha said many of his fellow National
Convention delegates have privately expressed anger over the
crackdown and a loss of confidence in the roadmap. The
public, he believes, was always highly skeptical of the
National Convention and now will never accept the results of
the process.


3. (C) Dialogue is now the only way forward to reconciliation
and democracy, they said. However, they believe the
government will not waiver from its pre-planned "roadmap" and
is only paying lip service to the idea of genuine dialogue.
They worried that if talks are not seen as genuine and
successful, opposition and ethnic leaders will lose hope.
This, they added, could lead to further unrest or more
violence. Moreover, Rebecca Htin told Poloff that the ethnic
cease-fire groups she has spoken with, particularly the
Karen, have expressed no desire to participate in any
dialogue. Simon Tha doubted any of the cease-fire groups
that participated in the National Convention have the desire
or leverage to demand their own place in any future dialogue
directly with the regime. While they believed ethnic groups
that boycotted the Convention might want to sit down with the
government, they both doubted the regime would allow this.
Instead, they felt these groups would have to accept Aung San
Suu Kyi as their representative, although they declined to
speculate on whether they would do so.


4. (C) Both Simon Tha and Rebecca Htin described most of the
non-military members of the Constitutional Commission as
capable and intelligent people, not merely government pawns.
Nonetheless, they do not believe the regime will allow these
members to play any role in shaping the substance of the
constitution, noting their belief that all key decisions have
already been made by Than Shwe and his loyalists. Instead,
they said, the regime needs these academics and jurists for
their procedural expertise in legal drafting, something with
which the junta is totally unfamiliar.


5. (C) The Commission is comprised of sitting and retired
military and government officials, as well as academics,
jurists, and businessmen. Simon Tha said that all major
ethnic groups are represented but noted few Karen are on the
list of members. His wife pointed out there are only five
women named to the 54-member Commission. Neither of them
were surprised by the make-up of the body. They both said
the composition of the Commission was announced slightly
earlier than they expected, a strategy they attributed to the
regime's desire to placate and distract the international
community.


6. (C) In discussing last-month's protests, Simon Tha and
Rebecca Htin described how they had actually encountered a
monk-led procession in Hinthade, near Bathein, while
accompanying USDA Chairman and Minister of Agriculture Htay
Oo to a charity reception on September 18. (note: the regime
crackdown began on September 26). According to Tha, while
many in the party became nervous when they encountered the
procession of monks, Htay Oo remained calm, telling the

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others the monks should be allowed to march and hoping they
would pray for everyone, even the USDA. Tha and Htin said
Htay Oo stopped at several USDA offices on his way to the
event to counsel his members to keep a low profile and not
interfere with the marches.


7. (C) Comment. Simon Tha has previously been hopeful the
National Convention could produce positive change. Now he
has lost all faith in it. Both he and his wife echo a
sentiment we hear more and more now: that genuine dialogue
must happen for there to be a chance at reconciliation and
democracy. He also highlighted a fact that must be kept in
mind: while there is much respect for Aung San Suu Kyi among
the ethnic minorities, they do not consider her to be their
representative. This is why the international community must
continue to insist on inclusive talks if a viable way forward
is to be found. Unfortunately we have seen no indication
that Than Shwe is willing to make even the smallest of
compromises to garner broader public support. Instead he
appears determined to ram his constitution through and will
enforce it at gunpoint if need be. End Comment.
VILLAROSA