BURMA: REGIME FOCUS ON "ROADMAP" IGNORES ABUSES

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 RANGOON 001037

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STATE FOR EAP AND IO; PACOM FOR FPA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/20/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM BM
SUBJECT: BURMA: REGIME FOCUS ON "ROADMAP" IGNORES ABUSES

REF: RANGOON 1033

Classified By: Pol Officer Sean O'Neill for Reasons 1.4 (b) & (d)


1. (C) Summary. On October 18, the regime announced a new
constitutional drafting commission amidst reports of ongoing
arrests and convictions of pro-democracy activists. Embassy
sources reported several family members of prominent monk U
Gambira were arrested on October 16 and 17. NLD officials
confirmed another five NLD members were sentenced to prison
for their alleged roles in the recent protests. The New
Light of Myanmar today accused the U.S. of providing training
to monks, alongside claims it had released more detainees.
The Russian Ambassador downplayed the crackdown, citing
instead the need for stability and urging the U.S. to refrain
from excessive criticism of the regime. End Summary.

STEP TWO


2. (C) On October 18, State-run television announced the
regime formed a constitutional drafting committee as part of
its so-called "roadmap to democracy." According to the
announcement, Chief Justice U Aung Toe will chair the
54-person committee, which includes the hardline Ministers of
Information and Minister for Cultural Affairs, and other
hand-picked, pro-regime scholars, lawyers, and military
officials. The regime did not say when the group will begin
its work or how long they expect the process to take.
Commenting on the announcement, NLD spokesman Nyan Win said
he believes dialogue is necessary before the regime's roadmap
can be successful. He noted the government has not yet
contacted the NLD or, to his knowledge, Aung San Suu Kyi to
follow up on its offer of dialogue. Other opposition leaders
have commented that they have no faith in the roadmap and
think the commission will simply be a rubber stamp for a
constitution many believe has already been drafted.

CONTINUING ARRESTS


3. (C) Embassy sources told us authorities arrested several
family members of prominent monk U Gambira, the leader of the
Monks Alliance, one of the groups that called for last
month's demonstrations. Witnesses reported security forces
arrested U Gambira's mother and two brothers from their home
the night of October 16. The next day, authorities
reportedly arrested his brother, Ko Aung Kyaw Kyaw, while he
was tending to HIV patients in a Rangoon clinic. U Gambira
remains in hiding, as does his father, sister, and
sister-in-law. Authorities have not acknowledged their
arrests or released any information on their whereabouts or
condition.


4. (C) NLD spokesman Nyan Win confirmed five NLD members,
including a 75-year-old man, were sentenced to lengthy prison
terms in Rakhine State for their alleged roles in the
pro-democracy protests of last month. According to NLD
sources in Rakhine State, authorities sentenced local NLD
chairmen Kyaw Khine and 75-year-old Sein Kyaw to seven and a
half years in prison each. NLD members Tun Kyi and Than Pe
were each sentenced to seven years. Min Aung, the joint
secretary of the local NLD office, reportedly received nine

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and a half years. The NLD said all five men were sentenced
in closed trials and noted that authorities have not
acknowledged their arrests or publicized the nature of the
charges against them. NLD officials could not confirm media
accounts that a monk named U Indriya had also been sentenced
to seven and a half years, but noted that credible reports of
monks being detained and convicted continue.


5. (C) An editorial in the regime's mouthpiece daily New
Light of Myanmar accused the Embassy of "providing training
courses to young monks and novices" and claimed the U.S.
instigated the 1988 pro-democracy demonstrations. The paper
continues to publish its own figures of the number of persons
detained and released to date. Today's edition claimed the
regime has now released 2,550 with only 377 still detained.
An Australian Embassy contact told us his sources reported at
least 400 more people have been arrested since last week, a

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figure not reflected in the New Light's totals.

RUSSIAN VIEWS


6. (C) Charge invited the Russian Ambassador for lunch to
discuss the possibilities of U.S-Russian cooperation to
advance change in Burma. He began by asserting that change
would be dangerous and bring about the economic collapse of
the country, but agreed that Russia would be willing to
support a gradual transition. Stability, he insisted, is
most important. He downplayed the recent harsh crackdown in
Burma by claiming that more people died due to Blackwater's
actions in Iraq. He cited today's announcement of the
Constitution drafting committee as progress, which the U.S.
should praise rather than only criticizing. He also noted
that Gambari would be permitted to meet with opposition
figures during his next visit. After first claiming that
Burma presented no regional issues, he later acknowledged
that every country now has an impact on others. He was very
critical of U.S. sanctions and urged us to increase our trade
and investment to promote change in Burma. However, asked
about Russia's efforts to increase trade and investment, he
said that was his highest priority, but he could not attract
any Russian interest.


7. (C) The Ambassador proved forthcoming about Russia's
cooperation on nuclear issues with Burma: expressing strong
support for nonproliferation principles; stressing that
Russia only supported peaceful uses of nuclear power; saying
2000 Burmese were now studying a variety of topics in Russia,
not just nuclear related subjects; and adding that those
studying nuclear physics only studied theory and were not let
anywhere near the real thing. After criticizing the U.S. for
failure to engage with Burma, he admitted that he was not
urging Russian military officers to return Maung Aye's visit
to Russia last year.


8. (C) Comment: The regime's announcement of its next step
on its so-called roadmap to democracy shows Than Shwe's
determination to move forward in defiance of Burmese and
international calls for dialogue. He has no intention of
opening up the process to gain popular support, and instead
has selected a group he feels confident will ensure continued
military rule. While Russia will not be as cooperative as
China in pushing for reform in Burma, we do not expect they
will become the defenders of the Burmese regime either. End
Comment.
VILLAROSA