DAS CARPENTER DISCUSSES OUTLOOK FOR ELECTIONS WITH

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 RABAT 000994

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/08/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM PHUM MO
SUBJECT: DAS CARPENTER DISCUSSES OUTLOOK FOR ELECTIONS WITH
BROAD RANGE OF MOROCCANS, PRESSES FOR INT'L OBSERVERS

Classified By: Classified by DCM Wayne Bush for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary: During his June 4-6 visit, NEA DAS Scott
Carpenter discussed the outlook for Morocco's September
legislative elections a range of GOM and non-governmental
contacts. There was broad consensus that the elections will
be generally transparent and free of systematic fraud. Most
civil society interlocutors were open to the idea of
international observation, although the GOM appears not to
want them. DAS Carpenter urged senior GOM officials to
reconsider, stressing that having the elections without any
international observation would be a lost opportunity for
Morocco. Many interlocutors predicted low voter
participation rates, reflecting low public confidence in the
political system, despite concerted efforts by both the GOM
and civil society to bring out the vote. Moreover,
gerrymandered electoral districts and a "balkanized"
political party spectrum made the September outcomes fairly
predictable, most agreed. Some claimed there were signs that
the country's sclerotic political parties were beginning to
"awaken from their long comas" but most non-governmental
interlocutors pointed to constitutional reform as the only
way to realize a substantive democratic transition in
Morocco. End summary.

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Consulting a Cross-section of Moroccans
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2. (C) NEA DAS J. Scott Carpenter visited Morocco June 4-6.
His meetings focused primarily on Morocco's upcoming
legislative elections and on pending revisions to the state's
Press Code (septel). He discussed the outlook for the
elections with a broad range of contacts including senior GOM
officials (Minister of Communications Benabdellah and MFA
Director-General Amrani),prominent female parliamentarians
Nozha Skalli and Milouda Hazeb, a group of underprivileged
youth at a community center in Rabat, leading journalists
Abdelatif Dilami (of the daily L'Economiste) and Ahmed
Benchamsi (of Morocco's leading weekly Telquel). Carpenter
also met, in Casablanca, with the leadership of Daba 2007,
the USAID grantee which is conducting an ambitious voter
mobilization campaign. A lunch for Carpenter hosted by the
Consul-General in Casablanca included leading civil society
advocates Abdelmalek Kattani, Sabah Chraibi, and youth leader
Younes Naoumi.

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Elections: Transparency and a "Safe" Outcome Forecast
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3. (C) There was general agreement among DAS Carpenter's
Moroccan interlocutors that the September legislative
elections will be generally transparent and free of
widespread fraud or abuse. Several non-governmental
interlocutors opined that the absence of tactics employed in
other countries, such as ballot box stuffing and mass busing
of "loyal" voters, reflected the Palace's confidence that the
election has already been "engineered" to ensure a "safe" and
fairly predictable outcome. The redrawing of electoral
districts earlier this year (reftels),and the diffusion of
public support among a plethora of political parties (over 30
are expected to compete),will preserve the system of
coalition government - with changes largely on the margins,
most agreed.

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To Observe or Not to Observe
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4. (C) In their discussions with DAS Carpenter, both GOM
interlocutors and NGO leaders pointed to domestic monitors as
key actors in the upcoming elections. Approximately 3000
volunteers, organized by a coalition of NGOs led by the
Moroccan Association for Human Rights (AMDH),will fan out on
September 7 to observe the polling. (Note: AMDH leads a
coalition of Moroccan NGOs "boycotting" the U.S. Embassy and
shunning USG funding in protest of U.S. policy in the Near
East. However, the domestic monitors are receiving
approximately 600,000 Euros in support from the E.U., and USG
funds are being used to train monitors from various political
parties. End note.) Prime Minister Jettou received a
delegation of Moroccan civil society election observers on
the evening of June 6.


5. (C) Many non-governmental interlocutors appeared open to
the concept of international observation and took the point
that their presence could be indicative of a maturing
political process rather than a sign of weakness. At the
same time, several observed, there was no precedent for such
observation in Morocco and the GOM would be difficult to

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convince.


6. (C) In his 70 minute meeting with MFA Director-General
Youssef Amrani, DAS Carpenter urged the GOM to reconsider its
position on international election observers. If there are
no international observers "Morocco will lose a great
opportunity," to enhance its stature and confidence in its
political system, Carpenter stressed. Amrani indicated that
he was not persuaded. "We are not a banana republic" in need
of this sort of oversight, he responded. Carpenter
underscored that the presence international observers were an
indication that a country's political system is taken
seriously, noting that they are the norm in many countries,
including western democracies like the U.S. The fact that
observers want to come is a good sign. In Syria's recent
parliamentary elections, no one even bothered to send
observers.

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Apathy is the Enemy
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7. (C) Both GOM and non-governmental observers agreed that
combating public apathy and realizing a large turnout on
election day was a major priority for Morocco. The
leadership team of Daba 2007, a Casablanca-based NGO and
USAID grantee, briefed Carpenter on their ambitious set of
activities designed to raise public awareness and promote
participation in the elections. The activities ranged from
the publication of a series of booklets to brief the public
on the various political parties and their programs, to the
production of a multi-episode situation comedy depicting a
family's awakening to civic life, to deployment of a 13
member caravan of activists and musicians traveling all
across Morocco over a four month period to encourage
citizens, particularly youth, to take an interest in politics
and exercise their right to vote. Assessing their impact so
far, the group expressed both optimism and frustration,
allowing that they were not satisfied with the rate of
registration (there were 1.5 million new and modified
registrations during the spring open season).


8. (C) During a visit to a Youth Center in an underprivileged
neighborhood in Rabat, DAS Carpenter discussed political
participation with a group of about 16 Moroccan youth ranging
between 13-24 years old. First asked if they knew what was
happening in September, the group was generally stumped -
none cited the elections. Asked if they planned to vote,
most indicated that they had registered, but of these, a
number said they planned to submit blank ballots. When asked
why they would not vote for a particular candidate, one noted
that a parade of politicians had visited the Youth Center in
the past, and all promised to fix up their dilapidated soccer
field. After they were elected, none had ever given another
thought to the center. Prominent journalist Ahmed Benchamsi
said he was not surprised by the comments of the youth. He
predicted that turnout rates will be low, because the average
Moroccan does not understand what members of parliament do or
how their actions, positive or negative, affect their lives.

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Political Parties: Waking Up (?)
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9. (C) Almost all of DAS Carpenter's interlocutors agreed
that Morocco's political parties were in a poor state of
development. The King's vision for reform and transformation
was beyond the comprehension of the political parties, MFA DG
Amrani opined, most seem to act as though this was still the
era of King Hassan II. The leadership of Daba 2007 also
pointed to the state of political parties as a key obstacle
to democratic development. Engaging political parties and
promoting their own development has been one of Daba's focus
areas. "There are signs that the parties are waking up from
their long comas," said Daba Chairman Noureddine Ayouche.


10. (C) Ayouche pointed to changes in the leadership of
several significant parties through internally democratic
elections mandated by the 2006 political party law, and an
infusion of "brilliant" young professionals into a number key
parties. (Note: IRI and NDI Chiefs of party also briefed DAS
Carpenter on their respective efforts to train party cadres
on campaign management, message and platform development, and
internal governance. They noted both progress and enduring
challenges in their efforts. End note.) Leading journalist
Ahmed Benchamsi, meanwhile, was dismissive of Moroccan
political parties and their capacity to change. He claimed
most parties were incapable of producing a coherent political
program and even those that were guarded their programs like
state secrets, out of concern that they will be plagiarized
by other parties (as has happened in the past, he claimed).

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Constitutional Reform Key to Real Change
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11. (C) An overarching issue that repeatedly emerged from DAS
Carpenter's conversations on the elections was the weakness
of the parliament as an institution in a political system
where the constitution preserved for the monarch the final
say on almost everything. Moroccan society is generally
conscious that the Palace, not the parliament, runs their
government and ultimately controls their destiny. Until
constitutional reform redistributes power toward parliament
and the prime minister, the legislative elections will retain
a certain irrelevance, many agreed.


12. (C) MFA DG Amrani insisted that the King has taken an
irreversible strategic decision to move the country toward
democracy and implied that constitutional reform fits into
this strategy. Incredible liberalization has occurred in the
first seven years of the King's reign, Amrani asserted, but
underlined that change in Morocco will have to be orderly and
"organized," at a pace determined by the King and his
advisors. Leading journalist Benchamsi, a strong advocate of
constitutional reform, opined that the King will not be
motivated to devolve his powers unless there is sustained
pressure on him to do so he maintained.


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RILEY