KING NAMES ISTIQLAL PARTY HEAD EL FASSI NEW PRIME

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 RABAT 001495 SIPDIS SIPDIS FOR NEA FO, NEA/MAG, NEA/MEPI, DRL E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/18/2017 TAGS: PGOV KDEM MO SUBJECT: KING NAMES ISTIQLAL PARTY HEAD EL FASSI NEW PRIME MINISTER; COALITION TO COME (C) Classified by Polcouns Craig Karp for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: Local media report that King Mohammed VI named Abbas El Fassi as the new Prime Minister on September ¶19. Abbas is the Secretary General and leader of the "nationalist" Istiqlal Party, which won the most seats in Parliamentary elections a fortnight ago. Abbas, as Minister of State, was formally the number two person in the outgoing government. He has been the target of much criticism recently, and for a long time, questioning his competence, energy, and integrity. In the end, the King apparently chose to fulfill his repeated pledge to name a government which reflected the results of the elections, consistent with the behavior of a genuine constitutional monarch. ¶2. (C) Abbas will now jump into the intense political jockeying, underway since the election, to assemble a governing coalition. This could be a right wing coalition--with or without the Islamist PJD, or as Abbas has indicated he would, return the outgoing right-left coalition. In any event, Abbas has long made it clear that he is the King's man. The throne's power will not soon diminish. End Summary. -------------- A CHOICE OR A DECISION NOT TO CHOOSE? -------------- ¶3. (C) In several ways, Abbas El-Fassi had the inside track. With 52 of 325 seats, his Istiqlal party will be the largest political group in the new Parliament. Although it has less than 20 percent of the seats, in Morocco's fragmented political landscape it has a solid advantage over all potential partners, other than the PJD. Istiqlal's success belied the expectations of many, given the party's reputation for sclerotic paralysis and sometimes shady dealings. ¶4. (C) Nonetheless, Abbas, as Minister of State, was the ranking member in protocol of the outgoing government. He also enjoys prestige as the longtime head of the leading Istiqlal Party, Morocco's oldest, and as the son-in-law of Allal El-Fassi, hero of Morocco's liberation struggle. Many thought the King would not choose El-Fassi, who is saddled with a reputation for mediocrity and limited political vision. One local weekly highlighted its candidate coverage with the title "anyone but Abbas." ¶5. (C) The choice of a new Prime Minister was apparently weighed carefully by the Palace. The King received on September 13 the leaders of each of the six parties which garnered 20 or more seats in parliament, the required threshold for a party to form a parliamentary bloc in the 325-seat Chamber of Deputies. (The six parties were the Istiqlal, the Islamist PJD (second place with 46 seats, but first in popular vote),Popular Movement (MP),the National Rally of Independents (RNI),the Union of Socialist Popular Forces (USFP) and the Constitutional Union (UC)). ¶6. (C) We heard rumors that the Palace also looked at some of the younger, well reputed politicians within the Istiqlal, but the party itself stuck with its leader and the younger members did not publicly challenge him. The press and many others have had a field day over the past fortnight speculating on the choice. ¶7. (C) Ultimately the decision on the Prime Minister was taken by the King alone. He may indeed have chosen not to make a choice, but, as he had repeatedly pledged, to rely on the decision of the voters. It is normal practice in a genuine constitutional monarchy, like Britain, Belgium or Spain for the monarch to ask the head of the leading party to form the government. In that way, it is a continuation in King's efforts to build a democratic structure, but the way it is done reinforces the notion of his continued grip on power. -------------- Parties Jockey as Coalition Scenarios Emerge -------------- ¶8. (C) The new Moroccan Parliament will be seated on October ¶12. Intense consultations and jockeying among and within parties for membership in the governing coalitions has been RABAT 00001495 002 OF 002 underway since election day. This is likely now to get more specific, with discussion focusing on specific portfolios, and perhaps generally on platform. The "sovereign" portfolios, including Defense (which the King currently holds),Interior, Foreign Affairs, and Islamic Affairs will likely, as is customary, to remain reserved for personal nominees of the King. We would not rule out the presence of some technocratic nominees in these or other portfolios. ¶9. (C) In pre-nomination public comments, El Fassi indicated he preferred to return with the Koutla, or democratic bloc, which Istiqlal shares with the two leftist parties USFP and PPS. Meanwhile, the pro-Berber Popular Movement (MP) has moved to form parliamentary alliance with several small parties, creating what could be the largest parliamentary bloc (a total of 60 seats). The USFP, still reeling from its dismal performance at the polls, may return to the opposition. The PPS and the royalist RNI, for their part, have remained silent and will likely join whichever majority coalition emerges. ¶10. (C) The most likely scenarios for the next coalition appear to be: -- A continuation of the current coalition of Istiqlal, USFP, PPS, (the Koutla) with the RNI, and the MP; or -- The formation of conservative-right coalition composed of Istiqlal, the Ilamist PJD, the MP, and the RNI, with the USFP ad PPS returning to the opposition, forming a leftit bloc there. (The USFP/PPS and PJD leadershipshave mutually declared their incompatibility with the other.) or; -- A conservative coalition witout the PJD could be formed with the Constitutioal Union (UC),an essentially non-ideological paty which took 27 seats. **************************************** Visit Embassy Rabat's Classified Website; http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/raba ***************************************** RIEY