MOROCCO'S EASTERN PROVINCE UNENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT

C O N F I D E N T I A L RABAT 001395 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE FOR NEA/MAG E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/28/2017 TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM MO SUBJECT: MOROCCO'S EASTERN PROVINCE UNENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT ELECTIONS REF: A. RABAT 1274 ¶B. RABAT 1248 Classified By: D/Polcouns Ian J. McCary for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: During a pre-election visit to Morocco,s eastern province emboffs found a broad lack of enthusiasm toward parliamentary elections, particularly among youth and women. Youth of the region feel they have no role in the current political system, and consequently, do not plan to vote in large numbers. Nearly everyone we met expected voters, especially rural, to place ballots along individual rather than party lines. Our discussions revealed that government efforts are unlikely to root out vote buying and low-level corruption. International observers are welcomed and are anticipated to boost the image and credibility of the elections. The Pro-Berber Popular Movement Union (UMP) and Islamist Party for Justice and Development (PJD) appear positioned to make strides in the region. End Summary. -------------- L'Oriental: New Sense of Confidence -------------- ¶2. (C) On a two-day pre-election outreach trip to Oujda and Nador, located in Morocco's eastern province, L'Oriental (northeast Morocco, bordering Algeria),emboffs met with a broad range of local political party activists, parliamentary candidates, business representatives, youth, civil society leaders, and academics. In spite of criticism that Morocco,s eastern region has for years been marginalized by the state, lacking basic infrastructure and investment, we heard that King Mohammed VI's personal interest has changed this dynamic. His efforts have injected a new sense of confidence in to the region, said one prominent businessman. There are over 150 ongoing projects, we were told. (NB: The King was on a personal visit to Oujda at the time of our visit.) -------------- Participation, But At A Price -------------- ¶3. (C) In both Oujda and Nador, speculation on the rate of participation was generally pessimistic. One of Oujda's parliamentarians and current candidate (RNI party) expressed disappointment in the government's decision to hold elections on September 7, arguing that the confluence of vacations, Ramadan, and the school year would limit voter turnout. A Chamber of Commerce official reported that fewer than expected new voters had retrieved their voting cards, which he believed reflects a lack of interest among the freshly registered. Similarly, despite party efforts to increase women's participation, they are unlikely to vote in large numbers, according to the women's sector coordinator for the Nador office of the Party for Progress and Socialism (PPS). Our contacts also predicted youth in the eastern region will not vote in force. ¶4. (C) There is widespread belief that most voters, principally rural, cast ballots for individual personalities rather than loyalty to a particular party philosophy or platform, as expressed reftels. Most contacts, including the founder of a recently established tourism school, agreed that the rural vote will outweigh the urban. Even current candidates with whom we spoke were convinced that vote buying (a small payment or the promise of a future favor) will continue to exist, but acknowledged that the government's shift to a single ballot has dampened the effectiveness of this phenomenon. -------------- Youth Interested In Politics, Not Voting -------------- ¶5. (C) Our discussions revealed that youth, while attracted to politics and current political maneuverings, are frustrated with political parties who continually make promises and never produce results. In a lively roundtable with approximately twenty university-aged Moroccans emboffs discovered that eastern province youth do not see a role for themselves in political parties and do not think parties adequately reflect their interests. Youth feel they can be most productive joining a local NGO, where they are awarded responsibilities that generate concrete results. There is a sense among some Oujda youth that voting is irrelevant until political parties are more responsible and parliament is given greater latitude to operate. ¶6. (C) The largest barrier to youth participation is that political parties do not communicate in a language youth understand, feeding apathy, according to an NGO leader and current PPS candidate. Nonetheless, one Oujda university professor has witnessed an increase in support for Islamist associations on campus, including the PJD, since 2002. Most students, however, do not openly express their political tendencies, he stressed. Compounding the situation, many young Moroccans from the region have dreams of a life in Europe, not in Morocco. (NB: Thirty percent of Moroccans residing abroad trace their roots back to the eastern province, according to local estimates.) -------------- What Has My MP Done For Me Lately? -------------- ¶7. (C) The average citizen has lost confidence in national-level politics and expects very little from parliament or its elected members, according to the Nador Chamber of Commerce President and former two-term parliamentarian. In his experience, qualified parliamentary candidates have opted out in favor of starting local NGOs or running for local government, where they can have a larger local impact. In fact, a current parliamentary candidate predicted larger voter turnout for the 2009 municipal council elections than for the upcoming parliamentary ballot. ¶8. (C) There was consensus among those we interviewed that citizens have a profound lack of understanding regarding the role and responsibilities of a member of parliament (MP). Constituents consistently demand results on issues that fall outside the prerogatives of a MP. A long tradition of not following through on (campaign) promises has led to disappointment with parliament, and the political system as a whole. Similarly, a local NGO leader claimed that disillusionment with the political system has been fueled by dim employment prospects; we heard unemployment has reached as high as thirty percent among youth in the region. -------------- International Observers Welcomed -------------- ¶9. (C) On the presence of international observers, every one of our contacts welcomed the mission and said it will certainly increase the credibility of elections. Morocco,s external image will also profit, they said. Despite international observers and a robust domestic monitoring effort by local NGOs, the popular view was that vote-buying and other low-level fraud will remain, particularly among poorer voters who have something tangible to gain from selling their vote. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶10. (C) Our discussions in Nador and Oujda echoed many of the themes obtained in preceding election outreach trips to the Atlas and the Fes-Meknes region. On the whole, the pro-Berber and traditionally rural UMP party and the Islamist PJD seem well positioned for Election Day, despite general turnout concerns. As one contact put it, the PJD is capitalizing on the growing disparity between rich and poor in Morocco, and has filled a void in the urban suburbs by providing a support structure. This phenomenon, however, does not translate into the rural areas, where a strong PJD base is less evident. We left with the sense that voter turnout will be fair, but less than desired, despite the GOM's considerable efforts to get out the vote. End Comment. ***************************************** Visit Embassy Rabat's Classified Website; http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/rabat ***************************************** RILEY