OPPOSITION DEPUTIES FLEE TO BOGOTA

C O N F I D E N T I A L QUITO 000957

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: TEN YEARS
TAGS: PGOV PREL EC
SUBJECT: OPPOSITION DEPUTIES FLEE TO BOGOTA

Classified By: PolChief Erik Hall for reasons 1.4 (b&d).


1. (C) Summary: With up to 16 dismissed/restituted members
of Congress in Bogota winning headlines (although little
domestic sympathy) decrying perceived political persecution
at home, pressure is mounting on the GOE to seek a consensual
exit from the current political stand-off between the
Government and main opposition. President Correa sent a rare
signal of equanimity on April 24, when he publicly exhorted a
judge not to issue arrest warrants against the opposition
members of Congress. Thus far, the judge has respected
Correa's request, and the 16 have therefore not requested
political asylum from Colombia. An opposition leader claims
the GOC would be willing to extend asylum, should any arrests
be ordered. Statements of concern about the political
conflict in Ecuador have been issued by the OAS SecGen, and
the opposition claims others are imminent from the Andean
Parliament, the Latin American Parliament, and the World
Interparliamentary Union. PSC national leader Pascual del
Cioppo has called for dialogue with the GOE on a "democratic
and constitutional" resolution of the conflict--short of the
return of the 57 to Congress. We have privately encouraged
both sides to explore this possibility. End Summary.

Background


2. (U) On March 7, Ecuador's Supreme Electoral Tribunal
(TSE) stripped 57 opposition members of the 100-member
Congress of their seats and political rights, for one year,
for attempting to interfere in an electoral process (the
referendum held on April 15). After a several week period of
political stalemate in which the Congress lacked a quorum,
the 57 were replaced in Congress by a group of 21 of their
substitutes, originally selected by the same parties, but
acting against the wishes of those parties. This group
called itself the Dignity Block, and lodged formal complaints
with legal authorities against 24 of the 57 dismissed
deputies who publicly insisted that they continued to
represent the legitimate Congress.


3. (U) On April 23, the Constitutional Court ruled the TSE
decision unconstitutional, ordering the restitution of the 57
to Congress. The TSE filed a "stay" order against
implementation of the decision later the same day, delaying
its implementation. The Court formally notified Congress of
its decision on April 24, at 11:00 am, but Congress chose to
ignore it and continue with the same membership. At noon,
the substitute Congress voted to dismiss the Court, arguing
the court's term period had expired earlier. Meanwhile, the
legal complaint (for sedition) against the 24 dismissed
deputies was revived by a Pichincha prosecutor, who
petitioned a local judge to authorize the investigation. The
judge did so, but stopped short of issuing arrest warrants,
provoking the flight of some of the deputies to refuge in
Colombia.

Biding Time in Bogota


4. (U) Press on April 24 reported the presence of four
opposition deputies, Sylka Sanchez (PRIAN),Gloria Gallardo
(PRIAN),Alfredo Serrano (PSC) and Alfonso Harb (PSC),in
Bogota, where they reportedly had sought the protection of
the GOC from political persecution at home, including
possible arrest for what they consider to be bogus charges of
impersonating members of Congress. On April 25, press
reported the additional presence in Bogota of Luis Fernando
Torres (PSC) and Mauricio Ponce (PRIAN). All are among the
57 dismissed by the TSE on March 7 and restituted by the
Constitutional Court on April 23. They are also among the
list of 24 of the original 57 who were under investigation
for impersonating members of Congress, at the request of
their replacements.


5. (SBU) On April 26, PSC national leader Pascual del Cioppo
told PolChief that he had paved the way for the fleeing
deputies to be well received in Bogota (del Cioppo's himself
is among the 57 dismissed/restituted deputies, but not the 24
under threat of possible arrest). Del Cioppo said the total
number of deputies in Bogota seeking protection had grown to
16, representing all three main opposition parties (PSC,
Alvaro Noboa's PRIAN, and Lucio Gutierrez' PSP).

Correa Takes the High Road


6. (U) President Correa on April 24 publicly called upon
legal authorities not to arrest the 24. "We don't dispute
the legal charges, but we believe it is inopportune and the
national government calls upon the prosecutor's office and on
the bloc which made the complaint (against the 24) to
withdraw it in a spirit of peace because we are living
through a sensitive moment and this will help reduce
political tensions." Correa also declared that the
government "had nothing to do with" the pending legal
complaint against the 24. Minister of Government Gustavo
Larrea told the Ambassador on April 24 that the government
did not wish to lend credence to the allegations of political
persecution by the dismissed deputies by arresting them. The
president's request has been respected by judicial actors
thus far.

Outside Pressure Mounting


7. (SBU) According to April 26 radio reports here, OAS
SecGen Insulza reportedly said the OAS was watching recent
developments in Ecuador with interests. Del Cioppo said the
fleeing deputies were well received by FM Arajuo and in the
Colombian Congress. He predicted statements of
support/concern from the Andean Parliament, Latin American
Parliament, and World Interparliamentary Union to follow
shortly. The opposition hopes that damage to the Correa
government's image will force it to compromise over the
current legal standoff.

Possible Exit


8. (C) On April 26, Del Cioppo claimed to PolChief that he
had publicly called for dialogue with President Correa or
MinGov Larrea about a "democratic and constitutional exit"
from the current political standoff. He would await the
government's response. If positive, he would propose a
compromise, whereby the government would agree to restore the
political rights of the 57, who would not seek to return to
their rightful seats in Congress. Restoration of those
rights would permit the dismissed deputies to run for the
national constituent assembly in elections already announced
for September 30, and allow voters to "rule" on their merits.
Larrea explained to the Ambassador later on April 26 a number
of convoluted legal reasons that made a compromise as Del
Cioppo proposes difficult, but he conveyed some willingness
and interest in finding a reasonable solution.

Comment


9. (C) Del Cioppo's compromise or something similar strikes
us as a reasonable resolution given the very messy
circumstances leading up to this point. Although the
Ecuadorian public is mostly indifferent or even antagonistic
to the deputies plight, we sense growing GOE discomfort with
the situation, as the dismissed deputies attract attention
abroad. We will encourage credible leaders of the Government
and opposition to get together, and outside interest (e.g.
from the OAS in special session) could help bring the
government to the table. Correa has already publicly called
for the TSE to restore the political rights of his rival
Lucio Gutierrez so that the public can vote against him for
the Assembly (the TSE has not complied),so striking this
bargain with the opposition does not conflict with past
presidential rhetoric.


10. (C) We have received only indirect queries about
possible political asylum in the U.S. for the deputies and/or
dismissed Court members, which we have explained could only
be requested in the U.S. from DHS. Since the dismissed
deputies are in no physical danger here, and there is no
order for their arrest, their case for asylum is still weak.
JEWELL