REFERENDUM ON ASSEMBLY LIKELY TO PASS APRIL 15

C O N F I D E N T I A L QUITO 000826 SIPDIS SIPDIS PLEASE PASS TO USOAS E.O. 12958: DECL: TEN YEARS TAGS: PGOV PREL EC SUBJECT: REFERENDUM ON ASSEMBLY LIKELY TO PASS APRIL 15 REF: A. QUITO 795 ¶B. QUITO 734 Classified By: PolOff Erik Martini for reasons 1.4 (b&d). ¶1. (SBU) Summary: Ecuadorians vote again in a nation-wide election on Sunday, April 15, to approve or defeat a referendum convoking an unbounded national constituent assembly to re-write the constitution. Public understanding of the details of the assembly statute is low and support for the assembly seems to be slipping somewhat, but President Rafael Correa has staked his presidency on a "yes" vote in the referendum and remains popular with voters at this early stage of his presidency. The OAS Election Observation Mission is on the ground and reports few concerns about vote preparations. If approved as expected, elections for the assembly are expected on or before October 7, and will be much more contentious. Even more so will be the referendum on whether to approve any new constitution, expected by the earliest in early to mid-2008. Meanwhile, Ecuador's two congresses continue to duel for legitimacy without conducting any substantive legislative business. End Summary. Process ¶2. (U) On April 15, Ecuadorians will head to the polls for the third time in the last six months to vote yes or no on the question, "do you approve that a Constituent Assembly with full powers be convoked and installed in conformity with the following Electoral Statute, to transform the institutional framework of the State and elaborate a new Constitution?" The accompanying statute lists technical rules for the election of the constituent assembly in 23 paragraphs of small text. ¶3. (U) There will be no quick count of results and exit polling will be allowed by major media sources, in contrast to the previous national elections. Results are required to be officially tabulated within eight days, but TSE President Acosta has said final results will be announced within five days of the election. ¶4. (U) Like all elections in Ecuador, voting for the referendum is compulsory. To pass, the referendum must win by an absolute majority of all votes cast, including null or blank votes. Historically, national elections have generated 25-30% null and blank votes. If this pattern holds, a 20-30% "no" vote could defeat the referendum. Pundits point out that of the last nine popular referenda, only two have passed, but most votes were held later in the terms of unpopular presidents. Correa and Supporters Increasingly Nervous ¶5. (U) Polls point to a clear majority approval (between 67% and 87%) of the assembly, but Correa is taking no chances and campaigning hard for the centerpiece of his government program. He publicly stated on April 10 that if the referendum is defeated he would consider stepping down from office. Over the next few days Correa will make five trips out of the capitol to promote the yes vote. The Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) has chastised Correa's government for already exceeding the spending limit on campaign publicity. The director of Correa's political party in Guayas province has raised the possibility of fraud, which hasn't been mentioned in connection with the referendum thus far. He promised volunteers would be vigilant at the polls. Over 6000 indigenous supporters marched in favor of the referendum on April 10 in Riobamba. "Vote No" Campaign Foundering ¶6. (U) With only three days of campaign publicity left, the most significant "vote no" campaign sponsored by the "Libertarian Movement" (see Ref A),suffered a blow when the TSE prohibited media from disseminating its publicity. Under SIPDIS Ecuador's electoral laws, only registered political movements and parties with a designated treasurer can engage in election publicity. The "vote no" campaign also suffers from a lack of party support, since only the small Christian Democratic Union Party (UDC),openly supports a yes vote. OAS EOM Concerned About Constituent Assembly "Full Powers" ¶7. (SBU) EmbOffs met on April 9 with OAS Election Observer Mission (EOM) Head Enrique Correa, Deputy Moises Benamor, OAS Ambassador to Ecuador Hugo Saguier, and OAS Democratic Sustainability Specialist Ana Perez. Dr. Correa was friendly and open, outlining preparations for the observation and specifying that the EOM had no major concerns with the referendum vote, although he was troubled by state funding of publicity urging a yes vote. Observers will fan out to seven provinces over the weekend, after a day of training, and the EOM plans to stay in Ecuador until April 18 unless there are problems. ¶8. (C) All saw greater challenges looming with the prospect of October 7 elections for the assembly. Echoing concerns widely voiced in the media, Dr. Correa worried that the term "full powers" in the enabling statute to be approved in the referendum can be interpreted in several ways. Some assert the term gives the assembly the power to dissolve Congress and other institutions, enact laws, and reform the government. Others believe it merely gives the assembly full powers within the constitution drafting exercise, leaving the current machinery of government in place until the new constitution is approved. Statute Vague on Proportional Representation Formula ¶9. (U) According to the statute, each voter will vote for 24 of the nation-wide candidates and as many candidates as his or her province will send to the assembly (e.g. 24 national at-large votes plus 14 provincial votes if the voter is from Pichincha). Voters may choose candidates by party list or for individual candidates or split their vote among lists. The electoral statute specifies that votes will be apportioned between individual candidates and lists using the "proportional method" but fails to define the formula to be applied. Further, whatever "proportional" style method is used will not be able to translate percentages of votes into the whole numbers of assembly seats. Parallel Congresses Bicker ¶10. (U) Congress President Jorge Cevallos convened the new Congress on April 10. After hearing an opinion in favor of legitimacy forwarded by the Solicitor General's office, the new Congress debated a motion by the PRE party's Jimmy Jairala that would have installed new leadership and enabled the body to call sessions without Cevallos. Cevallos blocked the motion, several deputies walked out, were coaxed back in by Cevallos, and the session ended with no decisions. On April 4 the Constitutional Court ruled against Pascual del Cioppo's challenge to the TSE's removal of the 57 deputies on technical grounds (see Refs A and B),but many more cases presenting the issue are pending. Cevallos now has said he would like to hear the TC's ruling on other cases before the new Congress conducts real business. Meanwhile 56 of the 57 removed deputies opened the "old" Congress in a hotel in Quito and condemned the new Congress, the police and Correa's economic policies. Rough Referendum and Assembly Timeline ¶11. (U) April 15 Popular referendum voting; April 20 Date by which TSE has promised to finish counting results (must finish within eight days); April/May TSE convokes assembly elections and begins candidate inscriptions (period begins eight days from declaration of official referendum results and lasts 45 days); June/July Period for candidate inscriptions closes, after which there is a ten day period to challenge candidacies; July Ten day period to challenge candidacies closes and 45 day campaign period begins; September Campaign closes 72 hours before elections; October 7 Assembly elections held (OAS EOM Chief Correa said the TSE told him they are planning for an October 7 election. Elections must be held within five months (150 days) of the TSE's convocation of elections in April/May.); SIPDIS November Constituent assembly opens for six month period April/May, 2008 Constituent assembly closes, unless it votes for a two month extension. Within 45 days, the TSE must convoke another popular referendum to approve the new constitution. Constituent Assembly Statute Highlights ¶12. (U) The Electoral Statute that will be voted up or down on April 15 provides, among other things: -- Assembly candidates must be at least 20 years old, gain signatures of 1% of the electoral rolls (about 90,000 signatures),and have been born in or resided for the last three years in Ecuador. -- Assembly candidates may only use state funds for campaigning. -- The assembly will have 130 members, 100 elected by province according to the current representation of each province in Congress, 24 national candidates elected at large, and six representatives elected by Ecuadorian migrants overseas. -- Assembly initiatives must be approved by absolute majority of all members (66 votes). Comment ¶13. (SBU) Referendums here historically serve mainly as an indicator of presidential popularity and at this early stage in the Correa presidency, the April 15 referendum, which is essential to his change agenda, is likely to be approved. A high null/blank and "no" vote, however, could embarrass if not chasten Correa. Such a prospect clearly has the Correa government increasingly nervous and it is conceivable that the referendum could fail if Correa's recent efforts do not pay off. ¶14. (SBU) If approved, Ecuador faces the more difficult prospect of a new national election campaign in a context of confusing rules and weak electoral authorities. Almost all political factions are resigned to the inevitability of an assembly and most were cowed by the government's tactics to achieve it. Given the legal ambiguity surrounding the assembly's unbounded powers, and no single, strong, judicial authority to resolve the issue, the opposition is setting its hopes on denying pro-government forces from gaining sway over the assembly. With the assembly looming, the dueling congresses are in danger of fading into irrelevance, despite their antics. ¶15. (SBU) The lack of clear rules for the "proportional" method to apportion assembly seats will generate further controversy and the TSE, now reviled by opposition parties, will ultimately decide on the formula. Finally, after a bruising battle to elect the assembly and write the new constitution, Ecuador (and Correa) will face yet another popular vote on whether to approve it. Popular approval at that later stage in the Correa presidency might be much more difficult to achieve. JEWELL