ECUADOR WAITS FOR CONGRESS AND REFERENDUM

C O N F I D E N T I A L QUITO 000795 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: TEN YEARS TAGS: PGOV PREL EC SUBJECT: ECUADOR WAITS FOR CONGRESS AND REFERENDUM Classified By: PolOff Erik Martini for reasons 1.4 (b&d). ¶1. (C) Summary: Congress President Jorge Cevallos has been successful so far in his efforts to delay legislative business so the Constitutional Court has a chance to rule on the institutional crisis in favor of one or the other of the two Congressional blocs claiming legitimacy. The 57 removed deputies have complained to the OAS, prompting a retort from Correa publicly ridiculing their efforts. Meanwhile, the popular referendum on whether the government should convene a constituent assembly to re-write the constitution will almost certainly proceed on April 15 as planned; no one expects other than an overwhelming victory for the "yes" side in spite of a nascent "vote no" campaign. Correa has pledged not to enforce a Constitutional Court ruling in favor of the 57 removed deputies, should it materialize. That action would strengthen those accusing him of "dictatorial" tendencies, but probably have little impact on his popularity in the short term. End Summary. Congress Still Suspended ¶2. (U) President of Congress Jorge Cevallos suspended Congress on April 3, calling for calm and reflection during Holy Week. Speaking from his office, Cevallos said that he wanted to give the Constitutional Court (TC) time to resolve the impasse with the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE),and said he would reconvene Congress on April 10. The pro-Assembly bloc, including PRE, ID, RED, Pachakutik, MPD, Nuevo Pais, Socialist Party, and the replacement deputies (National Dignity - ND),immediately lamented Cevallos' decision and charged that he was acting in the interest of the 57 deputies that had been removed by the TSE on March 7. The bloc reportedly tried to install a session without Cevallos, but with only 44 legislators it lacked a quorum for this constitutionally questionable countermove. The ND coalition reportedly petitioned the TSE to remove Cevallos for acting against its resolution to remove the 57, but the TSE seems disinclined to take that step, for now, at least. SIPDIS 57 Petition OAS; Correa Derisive ¶3. (U) PSC Congressman Alfredo Serrano submitted a complaint on behalf of the 57 deputies removed by the TSE to OAS Ambassador to Ecuador, Hugo Saguier on March 30. The 57 charge that Correa, through the TSE, has moved to consolidate power by unconstitutionally removing the opposition. They requested an immediate audience with the OAS General Assembly in Washington, and called on the OAS to send a mission to review their complaint and ensure an impartial decision by the Constitutional Court. The OAS has not responded publicly to the request. ¶4. (U) Correa in his weekly radio address on March 31 rejected the 57's claim that Ecuador is in an institutional crisis sparked by the Executive. He faulted the 57 for the current political standoff and said that they are free to "write letters to the OAS, UN, sweethearts, or whomever," but that it would do little to change their fate. Correa also warned the OAS to respect Ecuador's sovereignty by not getting involved without being invited. Referendum Opposition Gets a Late Start . . . ¶5. (U) A mere two weeks before the popular referendum for a constituent assembly takes place, a "vote no" campaign is beginning to take shape. Respected former President Oswaldo Hurtado spoke out against the referendum on April 2, essentially pointing out it is not a cure for Ecuador's economic or political problems. He warned of growing authoritarian tendencies in Correa's actions. Correa snapped back in typical fashion referring to Hurtado without naming him as a voice from "political corpses not yet buried." A recently formed opposition group linked to the Guayaquil business community, called the Libertarian Movement, has begun airing "vote no" television ads, but they will be no match for the "vote yes" publicity pumped out by the government. . . . Probably Fruitless ¶6. (SBU) Despite the recent "vote no" publicity, a March poll by a respected public opinion agency shows 87% agreement with the idea of a constituent assembly. The number has dropped by two percentage points since February and more than half of the respondents could not give the correct date. However, 65% correctly knew that the referendum would ask whether the government should convene a constituent assembly. ¶7. (C) Comment: Correa has vowed publicly that he would not enforce or recognize a TC ruling in favor of the ousted 57 deputies. The TC is widely reviled and viewed as controlled by the Social Christian (PSC) and other right of center parties. Public opinion overwhelmingly backs Correa in the Congress crisis. The recent poll cited above gives Correa an 86% "good or very good" rating, the Congress a 93% "bad or very bad" rating, and 80% approval for the TSE's action removing the 57 deputies. The popular referendum has virtually no chance of being derailed. If Correa openly refuses to enforce a TC ruling, it will add to the opposition chorus denouncing the Correa government as increasingly authoritarian. It will also be the clearest example, to date, of direct constitutional defiance by the Correa government. But with all this, the opposition will still have a long way to go before he loses significant political support. End Comment. JEWELL