ECUADOR: INSTITUTIONAL BRINKMANSHIP PROVOKES NEW

C O N F I D E N T I A L QUITO 000554

SIPDIS

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E.O. 12958: DECL: TEN YEARS
TAGS: PGOV ASEC PINS KDEM EC
SUBJECT: ECUADOR: INSTITUTIONAL BRINKMANSHIP PROVOKES NEW
POLITICAL CRISIS OVER ASSEMBLY

REF: A. QUITO 200


B. QUITO 364

Classified By: PolOff Erik Martini for reasons 1.4 (b&d).


1. (C) Summary: Culminating a series of moves of dubious
legality by the Correa Government, the Supreme Electoral
Tribunal (TSE),and Congress, the TSE stripped 57 members of
Congress (from the center-right opposition coalition of
PRIAN, PSP, PSC and UDC) of their political rights for one
year, in retaliation for their efforts to replace the
majority of the Tribunal's board. The government has said it
will enforce the TSE decision and block the 57 (of a total of
100) deputies from returning to Congress--they will be
replaced by alternates from the same political parties. The
ousted members of Congress have decried the TSE move as an
illegal assault on the legislative branch of government.
Congress has suspended session until March 13. Some deposed
members have threatened to set up a rebel body, perhaps in
Guayaquil.


2. (C) The TSE's dispute with Congress originated over the
TSE's disregard for Congress' changes to President Correa's

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national constituent assembly statute governing the April 15
referendum. With public opinion heavily favorable to
President Correa and the assembly, most people in the capital
believe the ousted Congress members got what they deserved.
Thus far, the streets of the capital remain calm, but in
Guayaquil, the center of the opposition to Correa and the
assembly, mayor Jaime Nebot has reportedly called for
organized protest. With potential for political conflict
growing, we will warn AmCits to exercise caution and avoid
any demonstrations. End Summary.

Background
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3. (U) In late January, Correa and protesters supporting
Correa sought TSE approval for a constituent assembly without
resort to Congress (Ref A). Rejected, Correa won Congress'
approval for the assembly on February 13, with the support of
Lucio Gutierrez' PSP votes. In doing so, however, Congress
limited the scope of the assembly by inserting language in
the assembly statute explicitly respecting the terms of
office of Congress and the president. Correa on March 2 sent
an altered version of the statute stripping out congressional
alterations to the TSE, which approved the revised statute
and convoked the referendum for April 15. The majority in
the TSE voting in favor included the PSP nominee, Jorge
Acosta, who broke with his political sponsors in doing so.
(Note: The TSE, like many independent institutions, is
politicized and each major party is allowed to select a
member. End Note.)


4. (U) Arguing that Acosta no longer represented the party
which had appointed him to the TSE board, PSP leader
Gutierrez subsequently supported a majority congressional
vote challenging the constitutionality of the TSE's move to
the Constitutional Court. On March 6, a majority of 52
Congress members voted to "substitute" its alternate on the
TSE for Acosta, and initiated impeachment proceedings against

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the TSE majority on March 7.

TSE Sacks Congress

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5. (U) In response, the four-person TSE majority comprised
of Acosta and representatives of the ID, Socialist party, and
PRE, late on March 8 issued its order stripping the 52
Congress members who voted for Acosta's substitution, and 5
others who initiated the legal complaint to the
Constitutional Court. The TSE action, under article 155 of
the election law, strips the congress members of their
political rights (effectively removing them from Congress)
for one year, for interfering in an electoral process.


6. (U) On March 9, 500 police surrounded the Congress
building on March 8 to prevent the 57 deputies from entering.
President of Congress Jorge Cevallos (not one of the 57, but
from the PRIAN party and supportive of the dismissed bloc)
declared the lack of a quorum and convoked the next meeting
of Congress for March 13. TSE International Affairs Chief
told PolOff on March 7 that the police, controlled by
Correa's Ministry of Government, have allowed Acosta to enter
the TSE and will give him full protection. Acosta is
conducting business as usual as President of the TSE and
doesn't fear the move against him. His alternate will not be
allowed to enter the building. Correa publicly praised
Acosta for bucking party politics and said his government
will respect the rule of law embodied in the TSE's decision.


7. (C) Carlos Polit, the PSP-affiliated Comptroller General,
told DCM on March 7 that the majority of Congress may simply
migrate to Guayaquil, where the powerful mayor, Jaime Nebot,
and the public would be more sympathetic. PRIAN Deputy
Gloria Gallardo vowed to confront the police in Quito.
Congress has also asked Polit, and the recently selected
Attorney General, who is backed by the PRIAN, PSP and PSC, to
take appropriate measures against Acosta. Government
Minister advisor Galo Oliva told PolChief March 7 that the
government would not seek to resolve the standoff between the
TSE and Congress through dialogue, saying the Congress

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members were guilty and must be sanctioned.

Comment
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8. (C) This confrontation reflects engrained disrespect for
and manipulation of rule of law on all sides and a peculiarly
Ecuadorian form of political brinkmanship. Responsibility
for the current institutional impasse is shared among all the
players, all of whom have engaged in a dangerous game of
escalating political brinkmanship, often with disregard for
the constitution and other laws. Blame, as we see it, is
ample and justified: Correa for provoking the current round
of this fight by disregarding congressional restrictions on
the assembly; the TSE majority for not returning the statute
to Congress; Congress for attempting to substitute Acosta
(without legal basis),and the TSE for applying an electoral
regulation designed to address Executive branch interference
against the legislature. Because the TSE is ultimate arbiter
on all matters of electoral process and law, there is no
other venue available to step in and sort out these various
competing legal interpretations of events.


9. (C) With Congress adjourned until March 13, a window for
stabilizing compromise exists, and we will join with other
donor nations and organizations to actively encourage it.
However, though he has used his Government Minister to return
from the political brink in the past, Correa is less likely
to do so now, while basking in public approval at record
levels (82%). This raises the likelihood of a dangerous
confrontation with Guayaquil's elites, the center for
opposition to Correa's change agenda, led by Guayaquil mayor
Jaime Nebot. Freshly returned from a family vacation in
Disneyland, Nebot has blasted Correa as "less of a statesman
than Donald Duck" and vowed to face the government down,
possibly through street protests.


10. (C) With political tension cresting again here, the
Embassy recommends the Department refrain from public
pronouncements until the situation is further clarified. We
welcome early indications that the OAS is willing to assist
with mediation.
JEWELL