CONGRESS APPROVES REFERENDUM ON CONSTITUENT

UNCLAS QUITO 000364

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL EC
SUBJECT: CONGRESS APPROVES REFERENDUM ON CONSTITUENT
ASSEMBLY



1. (SBU) Summary: A majority in Congress approved on
February 13 the Correa government's proposed constituent
assembly proposal, paving the way for expected approval by
electoral authorities to organize a referendum. Correa
welcomed Congress' action and MinGov Larrea declared it a
victory for social and indigenous groups. In approving the
government's proposal, Congress made changes to the statute,
most significantly limiting the scope of the assembly from
dismissing Congress or the President. The Government is
expected to welcome Congress' action. If approved by
electoral authorities later this week, as expected, the
referendum could be held in April and elections for the
Assembly in late September. Any new constitution would be
put to a referendum after the Assembly concludes sometime
between March and May, 2008. Congressional approval is a
major political victory for Correa, preventing a threatened
crisis by bringing the assembly within the bounds of the
constitution. End Summary.

Congress Finally Votes
--------------


2. (SBU) With several thousand pro-Assembly demonstrators
outside, the Ecuadorian Congress today cleared the way for
President Rafael Correa's referendum on a national
constituent assembly. Winning by a vote of 57-1,
pro-assembly forces included the 24 votes of Lucio
Gutierrez's PSP, the left-of-center parties, and,
surprisingly, three of five votes from the conservative UDC
party. Members of the PRIAN, PSC and remaining UDC members
walked out of Congress before the vote.

New Statute and Timeline
--------------


3. (U) The approved statute provides for a referendum
question that would ask voters to vote yes or no to the
questions "Do you approve the convocation of a national
constituent Assembly to rewrite the constitution under the
rules described in the attached statute?" The approved
statute includes some changes to the statute originally
submitted by the Government.

Specifically, the approved statute:

-- proclaims the Assembly to be "unbounded" while
simultaneously declaring it would "respect the popular will
of the people expressed at the polls on both October 15
(Congress) and November 26, 2006 (President)";

-- eliminates the signature requirement for Assembly
candidates (except for the six candidates representing
Ecuadorians living abroad);

-- eliminates the proposal to have 50% of Assembly candidates
under age 45 - the minimum age for Assembly candidates is 20;

-- extends the period by which the Assembly elections shall
be held to 150 days after the popular referendum;

Congress did not change other parts of the statute, including:

-- leaves intact the proposed number of Assembly members at

130. (Of those, 24 would be elected nationally, six would
represent Ecuadorians living abroad, and 100 would be elected
by province);

-- leaves intact the requirement that the Assembly take
decisions by an absolute majority (i.e. 50% 1 votes);

-- leaves intact the Assembly period of 180 days, with the
possibility of a 60-day extension;

-- requires certification that Assembly candidates have lived
in their home city for the two years prior to the election;

-- specifies that the new constitution and Ecuadorian
political state will take effect upon approval by referendum.


4. (U) Having cleared the Congress, we anticipate the
following timeline for the Constituent Assembly, assuming no
further setbacks.

This week: Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) convokes
referendum.

Mid-April: Referendum takes place, likely approving the
Assembly.

Late September: Assembly election held.

March/May, 2008: New constitution put to referendum for
approval.

Comment
--------------


5. (SBU) A majority of Congress saw the folly in resisting
any longer this very popular measure from a still equally
popular president, focusing instead on mitigating the
proposal around the margins. Correa insured the heat stayed
on with pressure tactics to cajole a majority into action,
threatening to provoke a constitutional crisis if necessary.
During his weekly radio address on February 10, Correa again
threatened to go around Congress and the TSE, if necessary,
by creating an ad hoc body to administer the referendum if
either institution delayed its approval past February 15.
The GOE tacitly welcomed street demonstrations convoked for
February 12-13, ratcheting up the pressure on the unpopular
Congress. Meanwhile, Minister of Government Gustavo Larrea
negotiated the face-saving compromise with the pro-assembly
elements of Congress, including Gutierrez's PSP, behind the
scenes.


6. (SBU) The same pro-assembly majority is likely to act
favorably in the TSE, unless Gutierrez pulls his support. He
is unlikely to do so, since the same majority is needed to
restore Gutierrez' right to run for the Assembly. Some of
the Assembly's most radical supporters will gripe about the
new limitations on its powers, but the government is
apparently willing to declare victory.
JEWELL