CONGRESS APPROVES REFERENDUM ON CONSTITUENT

UNCLAS QUITO 000364 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL EC SUBJECT: CONGRESS APPROVES REFERENDUM ON CONSTITUENT ASSEMBLY ¶1. (SBU) Summary: A majority in Congress approved on February 13 the Correa government's proposed constituent assembly proposal, paving the way for expected approval by electoral authorities to organize a referendum. Correa welcomed Congress' action and MinGov Larrea declared it a victory for social and indigenous groups. In approving the government's proposal, Congress made changes to the statute, most significantly limiting the scope of the assembly from dismissing Congress or the President. The Government is expected to welcome Congress' action. If approved by electoral authorities later this week, as expected, the referendum could be held in April and elections for the Assembly in late September. Any new constitution would be put to a referendum after the Assembly concludes sometime between March and May, 2008. Congressional approval is a major political victory for Correa, preventing a threatened crisis by bringing the assembly within the bounds of the constitution. End Summary. Congress Finally Votes -------------- ¶2. (SBU) With several thousand pro-Assembly demonstrators outside, the Ecuadorian Congress today cleared the way for President Rafael Correa's referendum on a national constituent assembly. Winning by a vote of 57-1, pro-assembly forces included the 24 votes of Lucio Gutierrez's PSP, the left-of-center parties, and, surprisingly, three of five votes from the conservative UDC party. Members of the PRIAN, PSC and remaining UDC members walked out of Congress before the vote. New Statute and Timeline -------------- ¶3. (U) The approved statute provides for a referendum question that would ask voters to vote yes or no to the questions "Do you approve the convocation of a national constituent Assembly to rewrite the constitution under the rules described in the attached statute?" The approved statute includes some changes to the statute originally submitted by the Government. Specifically, the approved statute: -- proclaims the Assembly to be "unbounded" while simultaneously declaring it would "respect the popular will of the people expressed at the polls on both October 15 (Congress) and November 26, 2006 (President)"; -- eliminates the signature requirement for Assembly candidates (except for the six candidates representing Ecuadorians living abroad); -- eliminates the proposal to have 50% of Assembly candidates under age 45 - the minimum age for Assembly candidates is 20; -- extends the period by which the Assembly elections shall be held to 150 days after the popular referendum; Congress did not change other parts of the statute, including: -- leaves intact the proposed number of Assembly members at ¶130. (Of those, 24 would be elected nationally, six would represent Ecuadorians living abroad, and 100 would be elected by province); -- leaves intact the requirement that the Assembly take decisions by an absolute majority (i.e. 50% 1 votes); -- leaves intact the Assembly period of 180 days, with the possibility of a 60-day extension; -- requires certification that Assembly candidates have lived in their home city for the two years prior to the election; -- specifies that the new constitution and Ecuadorian political state will take effect upon approval by referendum. ¶4. (U) Having cleared the Congress, we anticipate the following timeline for the Constituent Assembly, assuming no further setbacks. This week: Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) convokes referendum. Mid-April: Referendum takes place, likely approving the Assembly. Late September: Assembly election held. March/May, 2008: New constitution put to referendum for approval. Comment -------------- ¶5. (SBU) A majority of Congress saw the folly in resisting any longer this very popular measure from a still equally popular president, focusing instead on mitigating the proposal around the margins. Correa insured the heat stayed on with pressure tactics to cajole a majority into action, threatening to provoke a constitutional crisis if necessary. During his weekly radio address on February 10, Correa again threatened to go around Congress and the TSE, if necessary, by creating an ad hoc body to administer the referendum if either institution delayed its approval past February 15. The GOE tacitly welcomed street demonstrations convoked for February 12-13, ratcheting up the pressure on the unpopular Congress. Meanwhile, Minister of Government Gustavo Larrea negotiated the face-saving compromise with the pro-assembly elements of Congress, including Gutierrez's PSP, behind the scenes. ¶6. (SBU) The same pro-assembly majority is likely to act favorably in the TSE, unless Gutierrez pulls his support. He is unlikely to do so, since the same majority is needed to restore Gutierrez' right to run for the Assembly. Some of the Assembly's most radical supporters will gripe about the new limitations on its powers, but the government is apparently willing to declare victory. JEWELL