PROTESTS EXPECTED MONDAY OVER ASSEMBLY

UNCLAS QUITO 000345

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: ASEC PGOV EC
SUBJECT: PROTESTS EXPECTED MONDAY OVER ASSEMBLY

REF: QUITO 274


1. (SBU) Summary: An overwhelming majority in Congress
reportedly plans to approve the Government's proposed
referendum on a national constituent assembly in a special
session to commence on February 12, but will also seek to
limit the assembly's scope and delay its start until 2008.
Pro-assembly social groups including labor and indigenous
organizations promise street action the same day, in protest
against these changes to the government's original proposal.
Unless a compromise is reached over the weekend, protests on
the 12th could be significant. Police have agreed not to
dislodge the protesters as long as they remain peaceful. End
Summary.

New Assembly Statute Popular in Congress, not in Streets
-------------- --------------


2. (U) Media reported on February 9 that 88 (of 100) members
of Congress are ready to approve the government's referendum
proposal in a special permanent session on February 12, but
with important changes to the accompanying assembly statute
defining its terms. The revised assembly statute enjoys
support from all major parties represented in Congress
(Correa's Alianza PAIS movement is not represented there)
except the indigenous Pachakutik movement (with six seats),
the three far-left MPD members, two independents, and the
lone Socialist member.


3. (U) The revised statute reportedly includes four
important changes:

-- the Assembly would be limited to writing a new
constitution, and prohibited from dissolving Congress or any
other government institutions during its existence (vs. the
unbounded charter for the Assembly in the government's
version);

-- voting in the Assembly would be by 2/3 majority (vs. the
absolute majority proposed by the government);

-- the government would be prohibited from campaigning on
behalf of any Assembly candidates; and,

-- the Assembly would commence operation on January 5, 2008
(vs. 10 days after definitive results of Assembly elections,
as proposed by the Government).


4. (U) Leaders of the labor, indigenous and social groups
supporting an unbounded Assembly have reacted strongly
against the proposed revisions, and promised to protest
against it outside Congress and the National Palace in Quito
on the 12th. They also hope to disrupt dialogue between the
Correa government and Congress over this proposal,
criticizing the lack of transparency and expressing
skepticism over both Congress' motives and Correa's
"passivity." Radical leftist journalist Paco Velasco of
Radio La Luna lashed out against Correa's handling of the
referendum during his February 8 broadcast.


5. (U) At a formal military event on February 8, President
Correa warned that "these do-nothing politicians
("politiqueros") are wasting their time" trying to delay the
referendum. He defended his proposed candidates for
Solicitor General (criticized as being unqualified by
Congress) and insisted the only valid candidates for Attorney
General are those nominated by the National Judicial Council.
(The Constitutional Court invalidated the replacement of two
members of the Council by the Supreme Court, casting doubt
over the validity of the Council's nominees for the AG post.)


Protests: Indigenous Ready to Join
--------------


6. (SBU) Groups protesting Congress' proposed changes
include organized labor, Afro-ecuadorians, activist NGOs, and
the indigenous (including FEINE, the evangelical indigenous
organization, and ECUAUNARI, the main Sierra indigenous
umbrella group). Santiago de la Cruz, vice president of the
CONAIE indigenous group (which includes ECUAUNARI),told
PolOffs on February 7 that members of the pro-Assembly
"Front" were increasingly skeptical of the government's
commitment to its original proposal, having been "betrayed"
on promised reforms before, by former president Lucio
Gutierrez. Pachakutik leader Gilberto Talahua told the press
on February 9 that indigenous protests during the week of
February 12 would be peaceful. In recent years indigenous
groups have been slow to turn out in Quito, with the
exception of FEINE, but have repeatedly protested by blocking
highways in their home Sierra provinces.


7. (SBU) Embassy police contacts tell us they have met with
protest organizers and agreed not to attempt to disperse
peaceful demonstrations unless they become violent.
Demonstrators plan to gather in a park near the Embassy (the
park is frequently used as a protest gathering point so its
proximity to the Embassy is coincidental) at 9:00 am and
march from there to the Congress and then the National
Presidential Palace (in a direction away from the Embassy).
The special session of Congress will not begin until 3:00 pm.
Police did not provide estimates of protest numbers, nor
information about possible protest activity in the provinces.
Matching or even exceeding last week's estimated turnout of
3,000 is certainly possible.

Comment
--------------


8. (SBU) It is notable that the indigenous movements are now
vowing some degree of mobilization--to date, demonstrators
have been limited to the urban-based leftist political
parties. With pressure from frustrated Assembly supporters
mounting and being directed at both Congress and Correa, the
government will try to convince a majority in Congress to
accept a modified statute without the deal-breaking elements
imposed by anti-Assembly factions. Congressional
professional staff sources tell us they believe a compromise
can be reached. Key to the government will be to eliminate
the delayed start date; the Bolivian example will also make
the issue of internal Assembly voting rules contentious. A
new accord would help deflate planned street action by
demonstrators.


9. (SBU) Failing that, Correa could use his weekly radio
address to add fuel to the fire, egging on the demonstrators
to pressure Congress from the streets. It remains to be seen
whether the police will do a better job than they did on
January 30, when pro-Assembly demonstrators forcibly entered
the Congress building, and whether the indigenous actually
turn out in force in Quito. We will take precautions by
issuing a warden notice advising AmCits to exercise caution,
avoid crowds and protest routes on the 12th.

JEWELL