GOVERNMENT AND CONGRESS REACH ACCORD, CALMING

UNCLAS QUITO 000272

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PINS ASEC EC
SUBJECT: GOVERNMENT AND CONGRESS REACH ACCORD, CALMING
STREET FOR NOW

REF: A. QUITO 247


B. QUITO 200


1. (SBU) Summary: In a joint press conference on January
31, the President of Congress and Government Minster Gustavo
Larrea announced an agreement whereby Congress would debate
the government's proposed referendum on a constituent
assembly on February 6. Conciliatory statements by Larrea
and the congressional reversal of an unpopular appointment
diminished tensions between the Correa government and
pro-referendum demonstrators on one side, and the Congress on
the other. The agreement paves the way for eventual
Congressional approval of the referendum, which even members
of the anti-assembly opposition concede cannot be stopped,
only delayed. Electoral authorities are expected to act next
week to restore the political rights of ex-president Lucio
Gutierrez, a key referendum supporter. In the wake of street
violence earlier in the week, the Correa government has
distanced itself (somewhat) from the excesses of the
demonstrators, shown some pragmatism in relations with
Congress and avoided crossing democratic redlines. End
Summary.

Correa Turns Up Heat, Larrea Turns it Down
--------------


2. (SBU) President Correa had incited his supporters to
defend the referendum on whether to hold a national
constituent assembly in a nationally-televised address on
January 28. Demonstrators from various pro-assembly groups
turned out on January 30, breaking through police barriers to
interrupt the congressional session (Ref A),causing several
minor injuries. President Correa on January 31 lamented the
violent excesses but blamed the Congress and the Supreme
Electoral Tribunal (TSE) for the confrontation, saying that
by delaying approval of his government's referendum the
Congress had provoked public reaction. If necessary, he
said, he would create a new body to administer the referendum.


3. (SBU) At a hastily-organized press conference later that
day in the office of Congress president Jorge Cevallos,
attended by representatives of most parties represented in
Congress, Larrea moderated Correa's tone, declaring the
government preferred to seek congressional approval for the
referendum if possible. Larrea defended the right to
legitimate protest, but admitted that police protection for
Congress (which falls under his ministry's control) had been
inadequate during the demonstration on January 30, saying the
breach would be investigated. He denied any intention by the
government to dissolve Congress, and pledged to "guarantee"
its ability to function in the future. Congress president
Cevallos agreed to put the issue of the referendum at the top
of Congress' agenda for February 6.


4. (SBU) Congress resolved another problem during
yesterday's session by accepting embattled and discredited
attorney general Francisco Cucalon's resignation and pledging
to select his replacement from the list presented by the
National Judicial Council. Correcting that substantive,
legal and political misstep will remove what has been an
effective point of criticism against this Congress by
pro-Correa forces.

Day After--Streets Calm
--------------


5. (SBU) After an active day breaking into Congress (Ref A)
and the TSE a week earlier (Ref B),pro-assembly
demonstrators called for an evening rally on January 30 in
the same north Quito park where middle class anti-government
protesters had rallied against then-president Lucio
Gutierrez. The rally fizzled, attracting only 30-40.
Assembly opponents have accused the Correa government of
organizing and paying for the more numerous pro-assembly
demonstrations, and deliberately permitting the demonstrators
to enter the Congress building. On January 30, the number of
demonstrators declined to only 300, who marched to the
presidential palace on January 31 to show support for the
assembly referendum. No demonstrations were expected on
February 1.

Comment
--------------


6. (SBU) The accord between Cevallos and Larrea has already
calmed the situation in the streets stirred up by the
government to pressure Congress to approve the referendum.
Backing down from its threat to proceed without congressional
approval, the government, thanks to Gutierrez, currently has
the votes in Congress to bring the referendum within
constitutional bounds. Assembly opponents in the PSC and
PRIAN confide that with Correa high in the polls at the
outset of his presidency, and the Congress largely
discredited in public opinion, they hope not to block the
referendum and subsequent assembly, but only to delay it.
Some are also thinking ahead to try to gain an adequate
number of seats on the assembly to block constitutional
changes they fear will be for the worse.


7. (SBU) Separate from but linked to congressional approval
of the referendum is the issue of restoration of Lucio
Gutierrez' right to run for office (currently blocked for two
years by a TSE ruling which kept him out of the 2006
presidential race). A majority in the TSE is expected to
reinstate those rights, permitting Gutierrez to run for the
assembly himself (he hopes to seek the presidency of the
assembly if he wins). The show of "popular support" in the
streets on January 30 is viewed by some here as Correa's
attempt to maintain his political purity by changing public
perceptions of his government's modus vivendi with Gutierrez,
creating the impression that Congress will approve the
referendum not because of a political deal with the devil,
but instead in response to popular will "expressed in the
streets."


8. (SBU) Recent events have demonstrated Correa's
willingness to take a hard public line against Congress,
while permitting his minister to avert conflict (at the last
minute or after some violence, as in this instance) by making
conciliatory gestures. That strategy is proving effective at
this early stage of his presidency, but could cost him
popular support over the longer term. For its part, the
opposition appears eager to provoke Correa's impulsive ire,
seeking to speed his inevitable descent in the polls. We are
staying away from this baiting game, and maintaining our
focus on democratic redlines (keeping the assembly referendum
within constitutional bounds, not dissolving Congress) which
Correa has not yet crossed.
JEWELL