ECUADOR : PAIS CONSOLIDATES POWER AS ASSEMBLY

C O N F I D E N T I A L QUITO 002514 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/19/2017 TAGS: PGOV EC SUBJECT: ECUADOR : PAIS CONSOLIDATES POWER AS ASSEMBLY TALLY BECOMES OFFICIAL REF: QUITO 2451 Classified By: AMBASSADOR LINDA JEWELL FOR REASON 1.4 (D) ¶1. (SBU) Summary: The Supreme Electoral Tribunal issued official, final results of the September 30 elections on November 19. As a result, the Constituent Assembly will be installed in Montecristi on November 29. President Correa,s Proud and Sovereign Fatherland (PAIS) movement secured a comfortable majority of 80 of the 130 seats. While the opposition remained fractured and dispirited, PAIS organized workshops among its elected members to plan its approach in the Assembly. Strict party discipline within PAIS and its unwillingness to negotiate with other political parties represented in the Constituent Assembly are the major topics of discussion on the Ecuadorian street as opening day approaches. End Summary. ELECTORAL RESULTS, FINALLY -------------- ¶2. (U) On the 50th day after Ecuadorians went to the polls, and after resolving several appeals to preliminary results, the Supreme Electoral Tribunal proclaimed the winners of the elections. Assembly members were inaugurated at a November 19 ceremony. In accordance with the provisions established in the electoral statute passed last April, the Constituent Assembly will be installed ten days later on November 29. ¶3. (U) According to the official tally for national representatives, turnout was 73.18 percent. As a percentage of total votes cast, null votes (9.71 percent) ranked higher than any political party other than PAIS. 70.1 percent of voters who cast valid votes voted for an entire party list rather than individual candidates. ¶4. (U) The distribution of the valid votes at the national and provincial levels: PAIS 69.47 percent, Patriotic Society Party (PSP) 7.28 percent, Institutional Renewal and National Action Party (PRIAN) 6.62 percent, Social Christian Party (PSC) 3.88 percent, and Ethical and Democratic Network (RED) two percent. The rest of the votes were distributed among 21 organizations that received less than two percent. ¶5. (U) As a result, PAIS won 80 seats out of 130, giving it a comfortable majority. Seven of the 80 PAIS seats were obtained by running in alliance with other parties in six provinces. PAIS representatives won seats in every province except the Amazonian province of Napo, as well as all six seats representing Ecuadorians abroad. ¶6. (U) The opposition, which is far from unified, holds 50 seats (38.46 percent). PSP received the second most votes, winning 19, followed by PRIAN (eight seats),PSC (five seats),and RED (three seats),while the remaining 15 seats are scattered amongst nine political parties. These results stand in sharp contrast to the results of the 2006 congressional election, where PAIS did not run any candidates and PRIAN, PSP, PSC, and ID/RED combined gained 57 percent of the seats. ¶7. (U) Although traditional parties were the big losers, new independent movements did not fare any better. Out of 16 new independent movements that ran at the national level, only three managed to win a seat. In the provinces, over 100 movements registered for the election and also finished with meager results. The Supreme Electoral Tribunal decided not to apply to this election the legal provision which establishes that those political forces which do not reach 5 percent of the votes will disappear, arguing that this was a special election. PAIS PREPARES FOR THE CONSTITUENT ASSEMBLY; CONSOLIDATES POWER -------------- -------------- ¶8. (SBU) The long wait for final Assembly results proved an advantage for PAIS. In the run-up to the November 19 announcement, PAIS organized three private meetings with its elected assembly members to advance discussions on the organization of the Constituent Assembly, as well as its powers. Bodyguards secured the doors, giving the deliberations an air of secrecy. One meeting organizer said in response to a question as to whether this was a Constituent Assembly for all, "The one of Montecristi will be, but this one isn't." ¶9. (C) Thus far, PAIS appears to have significant control over its Assembly members. Its members are reluctant to speak without clearance from senior levels of the party apparatus. Two PAIS assembly members who had separately agreed to meet with us canceled their appointments after informing their colleagues about them. PAIS assembly member for Azuay province Rosana Alvarado told us on November 15 that there was fear that any meeting with the U.S. Embassy would result in headlines similar to: "Leftist Assembly members compromised with the Empire." ¶10. (SBU) Meanwhile, President Correa has continued to use the bully-pulpit of the Presidency to set the agenda and forge discipline within his own movement's ranks. During his November 17 radio address, he noted that "Everyone in Alianza PAIS must support the changes in the economic model because that is precisely what people voted for." Though PAIS officials have promised to include other parties in pre-Assembly discussions, no such discussions have taken place. PSC leader Lucio Gutierrez told reporters on November 17 that though such discussions have taken too long to materialize, he would still welcome them. ASSEMBLY POWERS STILL SUBJECT TO INTERPRETATION -------------- -- ¶11. (SBU) President Correa announced that he has prepared a list of legislative projects and is waiting to announce them until the Constituent Assembly convenes and dissolves the Congress. Some PAIS assembly members have stated that neither the 1998 Constitution nor the Electoral Statute approved by referendum last April are guaranteed to be fully in force while the Assembly meets. PAIS assembly member Fernando Cordero told the press on November 17, "The limits of full powers are determined by social circumstances." PAIS assembly member Rosana Alvarado was quoted as saying that "this (electoral) statute was designed to establish the installation and functioning of the Assembly, but it does not mean that the Assembly will obey it completely." Several political commentators have also suggested that PAIS may attempt to concentrate its power by holding local and national elections next year, while its popularity remains high. COMMENT -------------- ¶12. (C) Thus far, PAIS appears to be united, with its leadership exercising tight control over the organization's assembly members. Although President Correa has left the door open to the possibility of allowing Assembly members to express their private beliefs on moral issues such as abortion, it is clear that he wants to take no chances and is doing all he can before the Assembly convenes to stack the deck in favor of PAIS positions. Sparks between President Correa and Assembly Speaker Alberto Acosta may emerge during the constitution drafting process, which would provide an opening for increased dissent by PAIS Assembly members. JEWELL