ECUADOR : PAIS CONSOLIDATES POWER AS ASSEMBLY

C O N F I D E N T I A L QUITO 002514

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/19/2017
TAGS: PGOV EC
SUBJECT: ECUADOR : PAIS CONSOLIDATES POWER AS ASSEMBLY
TALLY BECOMES OFFICIAL

REF: QUITO 2451

Classified By: AMBASSADOR LINDA JEWELL FOR REASON 1.4 (D)


1. (SBU) Summary: The Supreme Electoral Tribunal issued
official, final results of the September 30 elections on
November 19. As a result, the Constituent Assembly will be
installed in Montecristi on November 29. President Correa,s
Proud and Sovereign Fatherland (PAIS) movement secured a
comfortable majority of 80 of the 130 seats. While the
opposition remained fractured and dispirited, PAIS organized
workshops among its elected members to plan its approach in
the Assembly. Strict party discipline within PAIS and its
unwillingness to negotiate with other political parties
represented in the Constituent Assembly are the major topics
of discussion on the Ecuadorian street as opening day
approaches. End Summary.


ELECTORAL RESULTS, FINALLY
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2. (U) On the 50th day after Ecuadorians went to the polls,
and after resolving several appeals to preliminary results,
the Supreme Electoral Tribunal proclaimed the winners of the
elections. Assembly members were inaugurated at a November
19 ceremony. In accordance with the provisions established
in the electoral statute passed last April, the Constituent
Assembly will be installed ten days later on November 29.


3. (U) According to the official tally for national
representatives, turnout was 73.18 percent. As a percentage
of total votes cast, null votes (9.71 percent) ranked higher
than any political party other than PAIS. 70.1 percent of
voters who cast valid votes voted for an entire party list
rather than individual candidates.


4. (U) The distribution of the valid votes at the national
and provincial levels: PAIS 69.47 percent, Patriotic Society
Party (PSP) 7.28 percent, Institutional Renewal and National
Action Party (PRIAN) 6.62 percent, Social Christian Party
(PSC) 3.88 percent, and Ethical and Democratic Network (RED)
two percent. The rest of the votes were distributed among 21
organizations that received less than two percent.


5. (U) As a result, PAIS won 80 seats out of 130, giving it a
comfortable majority. Seven of the 80 PAIS seats were
obtained by running in alliance with other parties in six
provinces. PAIS representatives won seats in every province
except the Amazonian province of Napo, as well as all six
seats representing Ecuadorians abroad.


6. (U) The opposition, which is far from unified, holds 50
seats (38.46 percent). PSP received the second most votes,
winning 19, followed by PRIAN (eight seats),PSC (five
seats),and RED (three seats),while the remaining 15 seats
are scattered amongst nine political parties. These results
stand in sharp contrast to the results of the 2006
congressional election, where PAIS did not run any candidates
and PRIAN, PSP, PSC, and ID/RED combined gained 57 percent of
the seats.


7. (U) Although traditional parties were the big losers, new
independent movements did not fare any better. Out of 16 new
independent movements that ran at the national level, only
three managed to win a seat. In the provinces, over 100
movements registered for the election and also finished with
meager results. The Supreme Electoral Tribunal decided not
to apply to this election the legal provision which
establishes that those political forces which do not reach 5
percent of the votes will disappear, arguing that this was a
special election.

PAIS PREPARES FOR THE CONSTITUENT ASSEMBLY; CONSOLIDATES POWER
-------------- --------------


8. (SBU) The long wait for final Assembly results proved an
advantage for PAIS. In the run-up to the November 19
announcement, PAIS organized three private meetings with its
elected assembly members to advance discussions on the
organization of the Constituent Assembly, as well as its
powers. Bodyguards secured the doors, giving the
deliberations an air of secrecy. One meeting organizer said
in response to a question as to whether this was a
Constituent Assembly for all, "The one of Montecristi will
be, but this one isn't."



9. (C) Thus far, PAIS appears to have significant control
over its Assembly members. Its members are reluctant to
speak without clearance from senior levels of the party
apparatus. Two PAIS assembly members who had separately
agreed to meet with us canceled their appointments after
informing their colleagues about them. PAIS assembly member
for Azuay province Rosana Alvarado told us on November 15
that there was fear that any meeting with the U.S. Embassy
would result in headlines similar to: "Leftist Assembly
members compromised with the Empire."


10. (SBU) Meanwhile, President Correa has continued to use
the bully-pulpit of the Presidency to set the agenda and
forge discipline within his own movement's ranks. During his
November 17 radio address, he noted that "Everyone in
Alianza PAIS must support the changes in the economic model
because that is precisely what people voted for." Though
PAIS officials have promised to include other parties in
pre-Assembly discussions, no such discussions have taken
place. PSC leader Lucio Gutierrez told reporters on November
17 that though such discussions have taken too long to
materialize, he would still welcome them.


ASSEMBLY POWERS STILL SUBJECT TO INTERPRETATION
-------------- --


11. (SBU) President Correa announced that he has prepared a
list of legislative projects and is waiting to announce them
until the Constituent Assembly convenes and dissolves the
Congress. Some PAIS assembly members have stated that
neither the 1998 Constitution nor the Electoral Statute
approved by referendum last April are guaranteed to be fully
in force while the Assembly meets. PAIS assembly member
Fernando Cordero told the press on November 17, "The limits
of full powers are determined by social circumstances." PAIS
assembly member Rosana Alvarado was quoted as saying that
"this (electoral) statute was designed to establish the
installation and functioning of the Assembly, but it does not
mean that the Assembly will obey it completely." Several
political commentators have also suggested that PAIS may
attempt to concentrate its power by holding local and
national elections next year, while its popularity remains
high.

COMMENT
--------------


12. (C) Thus far, PAIS appears to be united, with its
leadership exercising tight control over the organization's
assembly members. Although President Correa has left the
door open to the possibility of allowing Assembly members to
express their private beliefs on moral issues such as
abortion, it is clear that he wants to take no chances and is
doing all he can before the Assembly convenes to stack the
deck in favor of PAIS positions. Sparks between President
Correa and Assembly Speaker Alberto Acosta may emerge during
the constitution drafting process, which would provide an
opening for increased dissent by PAIS Assembly members.




JEWELL