ECUADOR ASSEMBLY ELECTION: READY OR NOT, HERE IT

C O N F I D E N T I A L QUITO 002212

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/27/2017
TAGS: PGOV EC
SUBJECT: ECUADOR ASSEMBLY ELECTION: READY OR NOT, HERE IT
COMES

REF: GUAYAQUIL 396

Classified By: DCM JEFFERSON T. BROWN FOR REASON 1.4 (D)


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: September 30 Constituent Assembly voting
and determination of winners will be complicated and possibly
chaotic. So far few predict significant fraud. The Supreme
Electoral Tribunal reversed itself on September 23 to allow
exit polls and quick counts, which will lend greater
legitimacy to the election if consistent with official
results. Observation efforts by the local NGO Citizen
Participation and by OAS, EU, and Carter Center international
observers will help ensure transparency. (End Summary)

ONE THING CERTAIN - ELECTION DAY WON'T BE SIMPLE


2. (SBU) Voting is mandatory in Ecuador, so adults (except
those over 65 or with disabilities) have no choice but to
show up at the polls. What they face there would shock any
American voter. The national ballot measures approximately
3x2 feet, with 26 party lists containing 624 names and tiny
photos. The provincial ballots range from 648 candidates in
Guayas province to 16 in Napo and Galapagos. (Note: 24
seats go to national candidates, 100 to provincial
candidates, and 6 to overseas representatives.) Citizens may
vote for an entire party list on each ballot or for
individual candidates from more than one list. The setup is
likely to lead to an unusually high number of blank or
invalid ballots.


3. (C) With so many candidates, voting could take 10 minutes
per person, resulting in long lines at the polls and a chance
that not everyone will make it to the ballot box. Anyone in
the door at the 5:00 PM closing time will be allowed to vote,
meaning that the process could run well into the evening.
Extending the vote into a second day cannot be ruled out.
Media explanations of the voting process and distribution of
sample ballots may help prepare the well-educated, but
probably do not reach most Ecuadorians.


4. (C) Other factors may add to the confusion. Most poll
workers are new, and the Supreme Electoral Tribunal told us
only 57 percent of them had been trained as of September 16.
Notifying citizens who are designated to work at the polls
has been problematic, especially in Guayas province, which
has the most seats at stake. The military and police are
supposed to provide security on election day, but there have
been persistent rumors of a police strike. However, the
strike may fizzle if police commanders paid the benefits the
rank-and-file were seeking, as we have heard. One town in
Manabi province is threatening to boycott the vote in order
to put pressure on authorities to approve local public works.

FEW SIGNS OF FRAUD TO DATE


5. (C) Pre-elections monitoring by the OAS, EU and the
Carter Center has yielded no signs of fraud. On September
14, Carter Center observation team chief Jaime Aparacio
stated that &they had not seen any evidence of fraud, but
cannot rule out the possibility of fraud on election day.8
One disturbing report came from Humberto Mata of the
Ecuadorian Force Movement, who complained to us that the
Guayas Electoral Tribunal refused to issue his party
credentials to witness the counting. We cannot rule out
irregularities at both the Supreme Electoral Tribunal and
provincial electoral tribunals, all of which are composed of
members appointed by political parties.

SEAT ASSIGNMENTS PROCESS A MATHEMATICIAN'S DREAM


6. (SBU) The seat assignment process will result in a larger
number of parties winning seats in each jurisdiction than if
the individuals attracting the most votes won seats (as will
be the case for the six overseas representatives). The
candidates with the highest number of votes will not
necessarily become Assembly members because votes for
individuals (rather than an entire party list) will be
transformed into votes for party lists through a weighting
method. Some commentators have criticized the approach for
violating the principle of "one man, one vote."


7. (C) The Supreme Electoral Tribunal announced that
official results would be available 20-30 days after the
election. Tribunal President Jorge Acosta told us privately,
however, that the Tribunal's internal goal is to make the
results available in 10 days. The Tribunal continues to

consider action against a number of government and opposition
candidates for premature campaigning, which means those seats
could go to their alternates if the Tribunal rules against
them.

MULTITUDE OF GROUPS TO OBSERVE


8. (SBU) The most significant election monitoring effort
will be that of the Ecuadorian NGO Citizen Participation
(Participacion Ciudadana). The group plans to field 8,335
volunteers and staff on election day to keep a sharp eye on
actions at polling stations nationwide and conduct a quick
count (Reftel).


9. (SBU) For the Organization of American States, some 40
observers from 12 member states and Spain, led by Chilean
diplomat Enrique Correa, will monitor polling stations
throughout the country. Seven Embassy Quito personnel will
take part in the OAS effort. The OAS is coordinating with
the election observation efforts of the European Union and
the Carter Center. The EU sent a team of 38 observers, while
the Carter Center is fielding six observers, including former
Peruvian President Alejandro Toledo. In addition, the
Supreme Electoral Tribunal is organizing a separate group of
international observers.

SUPREME ELECTORAL TRIBUNAL IN QUICK REVERSE


10. (SBU) The Supreme Electoral Tribunal decided suddenly
just ten days before the election to prohibit unofficial exit
polls and quick counts, citing concerns about speculation due
to a large margin of error. It immediately faced a torrent
of criticism. President Correa called the move a "serious
mistake." The OAS sent a letter to the Tribunal criticizing
the measure. Citizen Participation explained its quick count
methodology to the Tribunal in detail. The Tribunal then
reversed itself on September 23, deciding to allow exit polls
and quick counts as long as the results were first provided
to the Tribunal, did not show a tie, and were released after
the polls close at 5:00 PM. Tribunal President Acosta
claimed publicly that Correa's comments were given no more
weight in this decision than those of any other citizen.


11. (C) The reasoning behind the prohibition was puzzling,
but most international observers believed it would benefit
traditional political parties by casting doubt on the
legitimacy of the election. Tribunal President Acosta told
us that he acted at the request of opposition Patriotic
Society Party (PSP) candidate Gilmar Gutierrez in order to
prevent Alianza PAIS from conducting an exit poll or quick
count. He claimed that the PSP then had a change of heart,
prompting its leader Lucio Gutierrez to speak out against the
measure the next day. We suspect the truth behind the
prohibition attempt was more complicated.


12. (SBU) Citizen Participation will arrive at a quick count
through a sample of ballots, with an estimated margin of
error of less than 1 per cent. An accurate exit poll is a
greater challenge. Only pollster Santiago Perez (who is
believed to be working for the government) and a polling
company that is part of the Noboa Group (led by opposition
PRIAN candidate Alvaro Noboa) will go ahead with exit polls.

COMMENT


13. (C) Ecuador has a record of reasonably clean elections,
with reports at times of small-scale fraud. We have no
reason to expect more systematic fraud this time around. Our
concerns focus instead on the complicated voting process and
lack of adequate training for poll workers, which will result
in confusion, mistakes, and possibly disenfranchisement of
some voters. Unreliable exit polls are another concern,
since any significant difference between exit polls and later
counts will spark mistrust of the electoral process,
allegations of fraud, and possible confrontation.
JEWELL