ECUADOR CONSTITUENT ASSEMBLY ELECTIONS: NOT CLEAR

C O N F I D E N T I A L QUITO 001721 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/02/2017 TAGS: ECON PGOV PHUM SUBJECT: ECUADOR CONSTITUENT ASSEMBLY ELECTIONS: NOT CLEAR IF ELECTORAL TRIBUNAL UP TO CHALLENGE REF: A. QUITO 554 ¶B. QUITO 850 Classified By: Political Counselor Nan Fife for reason 1.4 (d) Ecuador Constituent Assembly Elections: Not Clear if Electoral Tribunal Up to Challenge REF: A. QUITO 554 ¶B. QUITO 850 SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) With only two months to go before Ecuador's Constituent Assembly elections, the Supreme Electoral Tribunal is facing significant challenges. A July 15 mock election revealed that the size and complexity of the ballots are likely to be a technical nightmare. The TSE has proposed some measures to help voters navigate a logistically tricky process, but these may have a limited impact. More worrying is the Supreme Electoral Tribunal's inability (some would also argue unwillingness) to enforce election law in a balloting that will have a high potential for fraud. End Summary. Ecuadorians Will Choose from Thousands of Candidates -------------- ¶2. (U) The Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) has finalized the lists of approved candidates for the Constituent Assembly elections on September 30. The TSE's validation process reduced the number of candidates from roughly 4,500 to approximately 3,400. From these candidates, Ecuadorians will choose 130 delegates -- 100 provincial delegates, 24 national delegates, and 6 international delegates representing Ecuadorians living abroad. The number of candidates on the ballot will vary by province. In Guayas, the largest province, voters will be presented with a five square-foot ballot listing 1,572 provincial and national candidates. In the tiny province of Galapagos, voters will have a smaller ballot with 688 candidates. Dry Run Exposes Technical Challenges in Voting Process -------------- ¶3. (SBU) The TSE held a small mock election on July 15 to test what promises to be a logistically tricky voting process. The exercise highlighted serious technical challenges presented by the quantity of candidates. Voters had difficulty physically managing the large ballot, understanding how to use it and getting through the booths in a reasonable amount of time. These problems are expected to lead to miscast votes, disqualified ballots, long lines at the voting booths and the possibility of insufficient time for everyone to vote in one day. The Guayaquil office of the Ecuadorian NGO Citizen Participation expects a huge number of null votes as a result of the complexity. ¶4. (U) The TSE subsequently proposed several solutions. It ordered larger voting booths and plans to shrink the ballots by reducing already scarce blank space. To reduce voting time, the TSE plans a voter education campaign involving publication of the ballot on billboards in public places. The TSE hopes that "Billboard Ballots" will let voters know beforehand where to find their chosen candidates amid the thousands of names. TSE Struggling to Control Campaign, electoral malfeasance SIPDIS -------------- ¶5. (SBU) In addition to the logistical challenges it will face during the voting process, the TSE is already struggling to address violations of electoral law. Although campaigning is prohibited until August 13, many candidates have already begun to run radio programs, publish TV and print ads, and distribute pamphlets. The road between Guayaquil and Manta, for example, is filled with signs and banners promoting almost every party list. President Correa has been careful not to directly promote his political movement,s list in public, but he has made numerous references to what his government (and by extension, his political movement) hopes to accomplish in the Constituent Assembly. Opposition politicians accused him of using a recent trip to Europe as a sly way to solicit votes from overseas Ecuadorians, saying that he was not officially invited by any government. ¶6. (U) On July 27, the TSE belatedly launched investigations into pre-campaigning in a few cases. Although the investigations are still in preliminary phases, some of the targets have claimed that the investigations were politically motivated and designed to discredit the government's opposition. Jose Valencia, executive director of Citizen Participation,s national office, told emboffs the TSE should be investigating ALL candidates, not a small number, given the widespread violations. ¶7. (C) Many question whether the electoral tribunals are really concerned about combating malfeasance. Unlike the TSE, the provincial electoral tribunals that will carry out SIPDIS the elections for the Assembly's 100 provincial seats are controlled by center-right opposition parties. Civil society and government allies have expressed concern that tribunal members' partisan affiliations could affect the electoral process. These groups point to the recent case of Alvaro Noboa, whose Assembly candidacy was denounced on the grounds that he had not yet paid fines related to overspending during his 2006 presidential campaign. The TSE campaign spending unit (controlled by Noboa's party) then drastically reduced Noboa's fine, claiming that the matter was a technical misunderstanding. COMMENT -------------- ¶8. (C) Faced with serious issues that threaten to compromise the electoral process, the TSE's proposed solutions appear lackluster. They assume a level of civic participation and knowledge that is not borne out in reality. Low levels of education and uneven exposure to mass communication could derail the TSE,s efforts to educate voters about a very complex voting process. In addition, the TSE's inability (and possible unwillingness) to enforce campaign laws, even for egregious public violations, raises concerns about its ability to execute other aspects of the elections. With all this in mind, election observation efforts by the OAS and Citizen Participation will take on increased importance. BROWN