AMID CALLS TO DISSOLVE CONGRESS, CORREA,S RATINGS

UNCLAS QUITO 001488 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL EC SUBJECT: AMID CALLS TO DISSOLVE CONGRESS, CORREA,S RATINGS FALL REF: A. QUITO 1295 ¶B. QUITO 1423 ¶C. QUITO 1424 ¶D. QUITO 1422 ¶E. QUITO 1350 ¶F. QUITO 1124 ¶1. (U) Summary: On June 26 a new Cedatos-Gallup poll shows a drop in President Correa's approval rating to 62% and a drop in his credibility to 54%. These declines come in the midst of increasing political scandal and contention. Recents displays of intolerance and even arrogance by Correa, coupled also with his call for the upcoming Constituent Assembly to immediately dissolve Congress, have probably also contributed to the decline. Notably, less than 50% of the public now expects positive change to result from the Constituent Assembly. End Summary. POLL RESULTS ¶2. (U) The June 26 Cedatos-Gallup poll shows a continuing slide in Correa's approval rating from a high of 76% in April to 67% in May (Reftels A and B) and now to 62% in June. Disapproval rating in the same period has almost doubled from 17% to 33%. Credibility fell from an April high of 74% to 62% in May and now to 54% in June. In the Ecuadorian context these remain strong numbers, but the negative downward trend is notable. For comparison, Congress currently registers a 12% approval rating and 6% credibility rating. HOPES FOR ASSEMBLY EBBING ¶3. (U) The traditional and seemingly endemic pessimism of the Ecuadorian people appears to be chipping away at the once high hopes for what the constituent assembly will achieve. The poll found very sharply lowered expectations, with just 31.9% nationwide now believing that the assembly will improve the situation of the country. That number was even higher in Guayaquil, where 49.3% answered negatively. CORREA CALLS FOR DISSOLUTION OF CONGRESS ¶4. (U) On June 23 during his weekly radio address, Correa called for the upcoming Constituent Assembly to dissolve Congress: "I am becoming more convinced that the assembly must dissolve Congress." He stated that earlier he did not think so, but that "the quality" of this Congress had changed his mind. In the last two weeks Congress has vetoed or substantially changed several pieces of Correa's proposed legislation (Reftels C and D). CONGRESS REACTS ¶5. (U) Deputies of Congress have reacted angrily to CorreaQ,s suggestion. Two hours of the session on June 25 were spent rejecting Correa's declaration. Carlos Gonz lez of ID called on the Attorney General to open an investigation against Correa on the ground that his remarks undermine political stability, in violation of the current constitution. Other deputies echoed this sentiment, including Luis Almeida of PSP. Only MPD and part of Pachakutik refrained from criticizing Correa's statement. COMMENT ¶6. (U) Correa's controversial call for the dissolution of Congress comes on the heels of the familiar scandals of the press (Reftel F) and Patinovideos (Reftel E). While his credibility is slipping, Correa's approval rating remains high going into the assembly election season. JEWELL