CORREA INAUGURAL CHARTS PRIORITIES, SIGNALS STYLE

C O N F I D E N T I A L QUITO 000128 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: TEN YEARS TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON EFIN EC SUBJECT: CORREA INAUGURAL CHARTS PRIORITIES, SIGNALS STYLE Classified By: PolOff Jarahn Hillsman for reasons 1.4 (b&d) ¶1. (C) Summary: Rafael Correa on January 15 was sworn in as Ecuador's 81st president since Ecuador's independence from Spain in 1830, and the 8th in the past 10 years. In his inaugural address, Correa laid out an idealistic agenda heavy on rhetorical flourishes and calling for what he termed a "citizen revolution" to overhaul Ecuador's political, economic, and social system, vowing to move forward with the constituent assembly, evaluate external debt payments, combat corruption, increase social investment, and encourage greater regional integration. During a pre-inauguration event attended by Venezuelan president Hugo Chavez and Bolivian president Evo Morales, Correa gave a fiery speech and seemed to put his own assembly proposal at risk by criticizing PSP leader Lucio Gutierrez as a traitor unworthy of his trust. He later ordered a referendum on the assembly be held on March 18. At another public ceremony on January 15, Correa lashed out at some of his own supporters for booing several of his ministers. Inaugural events helped shed light on different aspects of Correa's complex character and charismatic but also imperious leadership style, which vacillates between open confrontation and more magnanimous statesmanship. End Summary. Citizens "Revolution" -------------- ¶2. (U) President Correa in his January 15 inaugural speech said that his first goal as Ecuador's new head of state would be to initiate a "citizens' revolution" by means of an unbounded constituent assembly. He lamented the "collapse" of Ecuador's democratic institutions and stated that the current constitution had aided in the destabilization and immobilization of the country. He criticized the Ecuadorian Congress for failing to represent the people, and said that he would convoke a popular referendum for March 18 to seek public support for the proposed constituent assembly. Correa stressed the need for a new constitution to overcome the political and social elites that have controlled the nation, making the Ecuador more viable in the 21 century. ¶3. (U) Later the same day Correa signed the presidential decree convoking a referendum on a constituent assembly for March 18. The statue for the referendum called for the election of 87 assembly members, 56 representing provinces, 28 to be elected nationally, and three representing Ecuadorians living abroad. Half of the assembly should be women and half should be under the age of 45. Election campaigns would be financed by the Government. The assembly would last 180 days, with one possible 30 day extension. Congress would be informed of the decree but Correa argued that congressional approval of the referendum was not required under the constitution. (Note: The congressional majority in favor of the assembly is expected to approve the referendum nevertheless, and most constitutional analysts believe that approval to be necessary.) The Supreme Electoral Tribunal president (from Lucio Gutierrez' PSP) said the tribunal would immediately act on Correa's request. Fighting Corruption -------------- ¶4. (U) The second objective Correa outlined in his inaugural speech consisted of a new battle against corruption. He stressed the need to clean up Ecuador's political system, adding that he had taken great care in selecting honest cabinet members to lead this charge. He attributed the 1999 banking crisis and subsequent dollarization to corruption and implied that the 2000 debt exchange was also corrupt. He pledged to improve public sector spending disclosure, legislate tougher anti-corruption laws, and investigate human rights violations by previous governments (a reference to ex-president Leon Febres Cordero, whose government repressed a home-grown insurgency in the 1980s). Economic Revolution -------------- ¶5. (U) Correa called for an "economic revolution" to replace the "long sad night of neo-liberalism in Ecuador," and pledged never to put external debt payments ahead of serving Ecuador's poor. He said that the neo-liberal model, through excessive external debt servicing, had forced Latin American nations to forego social and economic investment, creating permanent economic subordination. This, according to Correa, has led to an increase in unemployment, extensive social inequalities, and outward economic migration. ¶6. (U) Correa stressed the need for Ecuador to end its cycle and culture of indebtedness, using its own resources whenever possible. He said that Ecuador would opt only to take on new debt to finance production and would use its own funds to address social needs. He reiterated that a sustainable debt is one that permits a country to first meet its social needs. He said that to meet its health and education obligations, Ecuador would seek a "sovereign and firm renegotiation" of its external debt, notably of the "inadmissible conditions imposed in the (debt) exchange in the year 2000." ¶7. (U) Correa said that Latin America should look for a new concept of development that reflects internal interests over external demands, and for reinvestment of South American resources in the region. He proposed the creation of an international tribunal that would rule whether foreign debt is illegitimate and determine a country's debt repayment, capacity to pay, and repayment mode. He said that Ecuador would establish its independence from international financial institutions that reflect foreign interests, and called for the end of independent central banks and the creation of a "Bank of the South." He said such a bank would allow for the repatriation of billions of dollars of regional resources invested in the first world, which would then be administered regionally. Education and Health Revolution -------------- ¶8. (U) Correa noted that Ecuador is one of the five Latin American nations with the lowest per capita social expenditure, and vowed to pull funds from external debt payments to invest in Ecuadorians. Ecuador's economic policy will incorporate social considerations, Correa affirmed. Correa blamed neo-liberalism for worsening outward migration by destroying employment opportunities. Lamenting continued poverty push factors, and noting the importance of migrants in Ecuador's political and economic system, Correa announced the creation of a cabinet level office for migrants and three seats for migrant representatives of Ecuador's "fifth region" in the coming constituent assembly. ¶9. (U) Correa also warned Ecuador against neglecting the troubled prison population, adding that many were incarcerated under overly harsh narcotics-related sentences set up to please "external forces." He vowed to work towards ending discrimination of all forms, and announced the creation of the Citizen Solidarity Secretariat to be headed by Vice President Lenin Moreno. Regional Integration -------------- ¶10. (U) Calling his government revolutionary in the style of Bolivar and Ecuadorian liberal Eloy Alfaro, Correa displayed a sword before the inaugural audience, noting it was a gift from President Chavez and a replica of the sword presented to Bolivar by the Peruvian congress (this prompted an impromptu handshake between Presidents Chavez and Garcia). After harkening back to historical heroes, Correa went on to emphasize the importance of South American regional integration, calling for Venezuela's return to the Andean Community of Nations and the creation of South American Community of Nations. Correa offered Quito as the headquarters for the proposed organization. He proposed regional "legislation" to protect labor rights throughout the region. Another Correa: Insulting Gutierrez before Chavez -------------- -------------- ¶11. (SBU) Correa on January 14 traveled to the picturesque indigenous highlands town of Zumbahua, Cotopaxi province with Venezuelan president Hugo Chavez and Bolivian president Evo Morales to participate in an indigenous ceremony blessing his government. Correa had spent a year after college working in a Salesian mission in Zumbahua, and returned several times during the campaign to appeal for indigenous votes. During a fiery speech heavy on anti-traditional party rhetoric, Correa blasted PSP leader Lucio Gutierrez, who just days earlier had pledged his congressional votes to support Correa's constituent assembly idea, avoiding a potential confrontation with Congress. In Zumbahua, he assured the audience that no deal had been made made with the PSP-, calling Gutierrez a "traitor" and "snake" whom he could never trust. National PSP president, Gilmar Gutierrez, returned fire calling Correa a "professional insulter," while noting that the PSP has supported the idea of a constituent assembly for six years. Another Correa: Lashing Out at "Infiltrators" -------------- - ¶12. (U) At another January 15 inaugural event at the monument to the "Middle of the World" on the equator north of Quito, attended by thousands of Correa supports, Correa ceremonially issued several decrees. The first, mentioned above, ordering the referendum on a constituent assembly. A second cut the president's salary in half and lowered the salaries of any public servants currently receiving more than the president's new salary level. The third decree swore in the 17 ministers comprising Correa's Cabinet, pausing after each individual name was announced. Many in the crowd jeered after the announcement of five ministers with experience in traditional parties or earlier governments (Education, Tourism, Environment, Public Works and Agriculture),chanting "we want new people." ¶13. (U) Halting the formalities, Correa took the microphone to lash out at those in the audience who had heckled the five. Saying he chose these individuals for their experience and performance, Correa accused the hecklers of being "infiltrators," and unworthy of being members of his PAIS Alliance Movement. "A statesman must stand against radicalism" and violence, he said. As a statesman, his goal was to make profound structural changes "at the lowest cost to the country" in terms of violence and confrontation. "The constituent assembly will be approved without one stone being thrown," he pledged. Comment -------------- ¶14. (C) Correa's inaugural speech reflects as much naive idealism as genuine revolution. The agenda is a mixed bag for USG interests, raising concern about debt default and rejecting established economic institutions. Ecuador badly needs a leader committed to combating corruption, but preferably going beyond ideologically-driven targets like the 1999 banking crisis and 2000 debt swap. Correa's regional leadership initiatives strike us as impractical and seem predicated on more personal hopes of assuming a leadership role in South America. ¶15. (C) The attack on Gutierrez is also revealing, showing again that Correa's actions are apt to be as much about personal emotion as political calculation. In addition to reflecting his antipathy to his predecessor once removed, and a desire to rebut whispers that a back-room deal had been made, his ego probably chafed at the protagonism that Gutierrez had won with his action in the run-up to the inauguration. (He may well have been egged on by the presence of Chavez, no fan of Gutierrez.) During his inaugural speech, Correa compounded the insult, publicly praising Gutierrez' estranged wife, Ximena Bohorquez, who had been summarily expelled from Congress for disaffiliating from the PSP after disagreeing with Gutierrez' initial position against the assembly. While PSP support for the assembly apparently remains firm, Correa's attack seems gratuitous and ego-driven, and will likely strain any future interactions between the two men. ¶16. (C) That same impulsiveness, tinged with fury, was on show at the Middle of the World. Correa's reaction there, chastising his most ardent followers for perceived disloyalty when they marred a scripted rally, betrayed a "with me or against me" mentality which could eventually cost Correa support from his base. That said, Correa has effectively set the political agenda here for the short run, framing the debate over the referendum and possible election of an assembly. JEWELL