LUCIO FLIPS TO PRO-ASSEMBLY MAJORITY

UNCLAS QUITO 000110

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL EC
SUBJECT: LUCIO FLIPS TO PRO-ASSEMBLY MAJORITY


1. (SBU) Summary: In a dramatic reversal, ex-president
Lucio Gutierrez' Patriotic Society Party pulled out of a
rightist alliance opposing president-elect Rafael Correa's
constituent assembly proposal and formed a new pro-assembly
majority counting 54 votes in the new Congress and a majority
in the new Supreme Electoral Tribunal. The shift avoids a
confrontation between the new government and Congress, and
puts the constituent assembly on what most regard as a
constitutionally-valid track. Should it endure, the new
majority could also permit the selection of a new Attorney
General, a key Gutierrez goal. End Summary.


2. (SBU) The new majority is composed of the PSP (24 seats),
ID (8),PRE (6),Pachakutik (6),RED (4),MPD (3),Socialist
(1),and the Nuevo Pais Party (1),and the ARE (1). The
alliance also holds the balance of four votes in the
newly-appointed Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE),and on
January 12 PSP representative Jorge Acosta was elected TSE
president. Acosta immediately announced his intention to
approve the referendum and restore Gutierrez' political
rights, which the former TSE had stripped, preventing him
from running for office for two years.

Why Now?
--------------


3. (SBU) Gutierrez first signaled his party's vacillation on
January 9, calling for direct dialogue with Correa. Correa
publicly responded positively, while continuing to lambaste
the political party Mafias that composed the anti-assembly
majority in Congress. The PRIAN-led majority and Congress
had planned to select an Attorney General (rumored to be
chosen by the PRIAN) and Comptroller General (rumored to be
chosen by the PSP) in a special session on the afternoon of
January 11. When the Ambassador met with him that morning,
President of Congress Jorge Cevallos (PRIAN) seemed sanguine
about the solidity of his 69-member majority, including the
PSP. The debate over constitutional reforms would take place
after the majority acted to control these two key positions,
he said.


4. (SBU) But talks between PRIAN leader Alvaro Noboa and the
Gutierrez camp had broken down around midnight the previous
evening over Noboa's stubborn resistance to consensus on the
attorney general and comptroller general positions. An
exasperated Gutierrez--whose efforts to forge an alliance
with Noboa during the presidential campaign similarly
imploded--gave up and decided to change course. Gutierrez
reportedly spoke to Correa around one a.m. as the new deal
began to take shape. The following morning, Gutierrez and
other party leaders were meeting with Correa MinGov-designate
Gustavo Larrea at a local hotel, and shortly after noon
announced the pro-assembly alliance had been formed. Their
first declared act was to boycott the special session of
Congress later that afternoon, denying a quorum for the
selection of an attorney general. The alliance would follow
due process by awaiting the National Judicial Council's
recommendations on candidates for that position.


5. (SBU) Gutierrez has publicly claimed his party's switch
came out of frustration that the PRIAN-PSP-PSC-UDC alliance
in Congress had delayed acting on constitutional reforms. He
also explained the decision as a move to avert confrontation
between Congress and the incoming Correa administration and
to bring the referendum on a constituent assembly into
conformance with the constitution by offering Congressional
support. The PSP would actively seek representation in the
assembly, he confirmed, and Congress would remain in session
alongside the constituent assembly.


6. (SBU) On January 12 Gutierrez stated that any constituent
assembly is by nature unbounded, but expressed hope that
agreement could be reached with Correa to focus its
deliberations. Lucio's brother Gilmar Gutierrez declared
that any new constitution created by the assembly should be
submitted for approval to the people by referendum, before
taking effect.

Comment
--------------


7. (SBU) Gutierrez' move surprised most here except Gustavo
Larrea, Correa's MinGov-designate and point man on the
assembly, who publicly crowed that "I told you we would avert
the train wreck." The assembly remains vulnerable to a
challenge to its constitutionality in the PSC-controlled
Constitutional Court, but congressional approval (combined
with still widespread public support) will make it less
likely for that challenge to prosper--and opponents may
decide now not even to try. The new coalition, like its
predecessor which survived only one week, is inherently
unstable, and will be strained by the selection of the new
Attorney General. That position is crucial for the interests
of both Gutierrez' PSP, which hopes to prosecute outgoing
President Palacio for corruption. The big loser is Noboa,
who would have had an Attorney General of his choosing and
remained a key arbiter of future reforms in Congress.
Bucaram's PRE is one of the winners, and may press its
perennial demand that its leader be cleared of corruption
charges and permitted to return to Ecuador. Bucaram is still
anathema to many here, including members of the new majority,
and his temporary return in 2005 contributed to the fall of
Gutierrez' own government.
JEWELL