LUCIO FLIPS TO PRO-ASSEMBLY MAJORITY

UNCLAS QUITO 000110 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL EC SUBJECT: LUCIO FLIPS TO PRO-ASSEMBLY MAJORITY ¶1. (SBU) Summary: In a dramatic reversal, ex-president Lucio Gutierrez' Patriotic Society Party pulled out of a rightist alliance opposing president-elect Rafael Correa's constituent assembly proposal and formed a new pro-assembly majority counting 54 votes in the new Congress and a majority in the new Supreme Electoral Tribunal. The shift avoids a confrontation between the new government and Congress, and puts the constituent assembly on what most regard as a constitutionally-valid track. Should it endure, the new majority could also permit the selection of a new Attorney General, a key Gutierrez goal. End Summary. ¶2. (SBU) The new majority is composed of the PSP (24 seats), ID (8),PRE (6),Pachakutik (6),RED (4),MPD (3),Socialist (1),and the Nuevo Pais Party (1),and the ARE (1). The alliance also holds the balance of four votes in the newly-appointed Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE),and on January 12 PSP representative Jorge Acosta was elected TSE president. Acosta immediately announced his intention to approve the referendum and restore Gutierrez' political rights, which the former TSE had stripped, preventing him from running for office for two years. Why Now? -------------- ¶3. (SBU) Gutierrez first signaled his party's vacillation on January 9, calling for direct dialogue with Correa. Correa publicly responded positively, while continuing to lambaste the political party Mafias that composed the anti-assembly majority in Congress. The PRIAN-led majority and Congress had planned to select an Attorney General (rumored to be chosen by the PRIAN) and Comptroller General (rumored to be chosen by the PSP) in a special session on the afternoon of January 11. When the Ambassador met with him that morning, President of Congress Jorge Cevallos (PRIAN) seemed sanguine about the solidity of his 69-member majority, including the PSP. The debate over constitutional reforms would take place after the majority acted to control these two key positions, he said. ¶4. (SBU) But talks between PRIAN leader Alvaro Noboa and the Gutierrez camp had broken down around midnight the previous evening over Noboa's stubborn resistance to consensus on the attorney general and comptroller general positions. An exasperated Gutierrez--whose efforts to forge an alliance with Noboa during the presidential campaign similarly imploded--gave up and decided to change course. Gutierrez reportedly spoke to Correa around one a.m. as the new deal began to take shape. The following morning, Gutierrez and other party leaders were meeting with Correa MinGov-designate Gustavo Larrea at a local hotel, and shortly after noon announced the pro-assembly alliance had been formed. Their first declared act was to boycott the special session of Congress later that afternoon, denying a quorum for the selection of an attorney general. The alliance would follow due process by awaiting the National Judicial Council's recommendations on candidates for that position. ¶5. (SBU) Gutierrez has publicly claimed his party's switch came out of frustration that the PRIAN-PSP-PSC-UDC alliance in Congress had delayed acting on constitutional reforms. He also explained the decision as a move to avert confrontation between Congress and the incoming Correa administration and to bring the referendum on a constituent assembly into conformance with the constitution by offering Congressional support. The PSP would actively seek representation in the assembly, he confirmed, and Congress would remain in session alongside the constituent assembly. ¶6. (SBU) On January 12 Gutierrez stated that any constituent assembly is by nature unbounded, but expressed hope that agreement could be reached with Correa to focus its deliberations. Lucio's brother Gilmar Gutierrez declared that any new constitution created by the assembly should be submitted for approval to the people by referendum, before taking effect. Comment -------------- ¶7. (SBU) Gutierrez' move surprised most here except Gustavo Larrea, Correa's MinGov-designate and point man on the assembly, who publicly crowed that "I told you we would avert the train wreck." The assembly remains vulnerable to a challenge to its constitutionality in the PSC-controlled Constitutional Court, but congressional approval (combined with still widespread public support) will make it less likely for that challenge to prosper--and opponents may decide now not even to try. The new coalition, like its predecessor which survived only one week, is inherently unstable, and will be strained by the selection of the new Attorney General. That position is crucial for the interests of both Gutierrez' PSP, which hopes to prosecute outgoing President Palacio for corruption. The big loser is Noboa, who would have had an Attorney General of his choosing and remained a key arbiter of future reforms in Congress. Bucaram's PRE is one of the winners, and may press its perennial demand that its leader be cleared of corruption charges and permitted to return to Ecuador. Bucaram is still anathema to many here, including members of the new majority, and his temporary return in 2005 contributed to the fall of Gutierrez' own government. JEWELL