CORREA AND URIBE ANNOUNCE DEAL ON SPRAY STUDY

UNCLAS QUITO 000108

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL SNAR EC CO
SUBJECT: CORREA AND URIBE ANNOUNCE DEAL ON SPRAY STUDY



1. (SBU) Summary: President-elect Rafael Correa of Ecuador
and President Alvaro Uribe of Colombia announced an agreement
on January 10 to conduct a tripartite study of the aerial
fumigation of coca crops in Colombia along the Ecuadorian
border. The study would be conducted by representatives of
each country and an international organization, possibly the
OAS or UN. Outgoing Ecuadorian FM Francisco Carrion
immediately and publicly criticized the accord on January 11,
calling it "a step backwards" for Ecuador. The hasty accord
reflects Correa's decisive (and impulsive) leadership style,
and his eagerness to smooth things over with Uribe. We will
continue to encourage him to do so. Uribe's attendance at
Correa's inauguration, though unconfirmed, would offer the
next important opportunity to do so, even more so if Uribe is
prepared to say the current round of fumigation has been
completed. End Summary.

The Agreement
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2. (SBU) The agreement was reached directly between the two
heads of state in Managua, during a half-hour meeting on the
margins of the Ortega inauguration, on January 10. In
announcing the verbal agreement to the press, Correa
described the agreement as "a huge step forward" for
bilateral relations. The tripartite commission, he said,
would include representatives of "Ecuador, Colombia, and the
OAS or UN, with the objective of determining whether
fumigation on the Colombian side of the border has no effect
on the Ecuadorian side, and if not, to take appropriate
measures." The GOC would be required to inform the
commission of any spraying in advance, so the commission
could confirm any effects on the Ecuadorian side. The
agreement would not preclude Ecuador from pursing
international claims for compensation for damages, he said.
The commission would decide on the GOE's request that the GOC
suspend fumigations within 10 km of the border, he said.


3. (SBU) In their initial and subsequent public statements,
Correa and his FM-designate Maria Fernanda Espinosa described
the accord as including the following elements:

-- Formation of the tripartite commission, consisting of
representatives of the GOE, GOC, and the OAS or UN.

-- Advance Colombian notification to Ecuador each time
spraying near the border is initiated, to permit observation
by commission inspectors.

-- Eventual agreement to terms of reference of a prospective
study of health effects of glyphosate.

-- Taking of testimony from persons who believe they are
affected by the spraying, on both sides of the border.

Carrion Critical
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4. (SBU) FM Carrion, just back from an inconclusive OAS
Executive Board meeting in Washington on January 9 where he
presented GOE complaints about Colombian fumigations, was
quick to criticize the accord for departing from the Palacio
government's policy of "firmness and dialogue" with Colombia.
No doubt stung by appearing to have been ineffectual in his
own efforts to solve the problem, he said by engaging in
dialogue without any Colombian commitment to return to its
2005 written agreement with Ecuador to suspend spraying
indefinitely, the new agreement represented a "step
backwards" for Ecuador. It would be a mistake to permit OAS
representation (vs. the UN) on the tripartite commission, he
suggested, since the OAS had already concluded that
glyphosate spraying was safe. The Palacio government would
maintain its policy of withdrawing its ambassador from Bogota
until spraying stopped. It would be up to Correa to decide
whether to return Ecuador's ambassador to Bogota. Press
noted that then-president Lucio Gutierrez made a similar
agreement with Uribe in 2003, but the joint study was never
realized.


5. (SBU) FM-designate Espinosa defended the accord against
Carrion's criticism, saying "the position of president Correa
and the new government has been very firm, and will continue
to firmly defend the health of Ecuadorians living near the
border and the environment of this region."

Colombian MOD Stirs Pot
--------------


6. (SBU) In interviews with Ecuadorian press, Colombian
MinDef Juan Manuel Santos confirmed that USG-financed
fumigation efforts would continue, saying only 1,000 of
13,000 hectares of FARC coca plantations remained to be
eradicated. He said the GOC would reinforce its presence
along the border by sending a 400-man battalion to the border
region during the week of January 15, and as of February,
3,100 workers would begin manual eradication in 10 Colombian
departments. Santos lamented that the GOE had collaborated
less with the GOC on border issues than Peru had, but
expressed hope for better cooperation from the Correa
government. He reaffirmed GOC claims that coca crops are
being cultivated in Ecuador, and said the location of the
crops had been shared with Ecuadorian police counterparts.


7. (SBU) Asked if he thought the closure of the Manta FOL in
2009 would hurt Colombia, Santos said he did not think so,
since GOC intelligence and actions against illegal armed
groups did not depend upon the existence of a base in
Ecuador. "The U.S. has its own activities; we do not depend
solely on them."

Comment
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8. (SBU) Neither we nor our MFA counterparts have yet seen
any offiical document defining the announced presidential
accord. The unconfirmed verbal agreement reflects Correa's
impulsive but decisive style, and demonstrates an eagerness
to advance the fumigation issue sufficiently at least to
permit Uribe's attendance at Correa's inauguration.
Carrion's criticism could cost Correa and his incoming
foreign policy team, fueling speculation here that his
decision was hasty and without full consideration of the
consequences, but if spraying ends shortly the issue could go
away for awhile. Nevertheless, the accord, if confirmed,
appears to clear the way for Uribe's attendance at the Correa
inauguration on January 15, offering an important opportunity
for further progress.
JEWELL