KOSOVO: ASSEMBLY ELECTION RESULTS BRING IMPORTANT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 PRISTINA 000811

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR DRL, INL, AND EUR/SCE, NSC FOR BRAUN, USUN FOR
DREW SCHUFLETOWSKI, USOSCE FOR STEVE STEGER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/06/2017
TAGS: PGOV KDEM UNMIK YI KV
SUBJECT: KOSOVO: ASSEMBLY ELECTION RESULTS BRING IMPORTANT
CHANGES

REF: PRISTINA 804

Classified By: COM TINA KAIDANOW FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D).


1. (C) SUMMARY: SRSG Ruecker certified the results of the
November 17 Kosovo Assembly election on December 5. Among
the Albanian parties, seat distribution of the 120-seat
Assembly comprises the following (previous number of seats in
parentheses): Hashim Thaci's PDK 37 (30),President Sejdiu's
LDK 25 (41),Bexhet Pacolli's AKR 13 (0),Nexhat Daci's LDD
11 (6),and Ramush Haradinaj's AAK 10 (9). Veton Surroi's
ORA party did not pass the 5 percent threshold and is out of
the Assembly. The Islam-oriented Justice Party is out as
well. Although most of the "new" MPs are not new to
politics, each party added new personalities and the Assembly
may have a very different dynamic this mandate. It will also
include 24 minority members, two more than in the previous
mandate. Kosovo's non-Serb minority communities, with their
10 set-aside seats, picked up an additional four seats as
well. The biggest surprise of the election has been the
dramatic collapse of the once-formidable LDK, which lost the
election more than the PDK won it. Given the short period of
organization and the complicated balloting, the elections
process and aftermath went fairly smoothly. Activity will
now shift to coalition talks and government formation, with
the most likely coalition being PDK-LDK, reinforced by some
Serb and non-Serb parties. (Reftel reports results of Kosovo
Serb vote and its implications.) END SUMMARY.

More LDK's big loss than PDK's big win


2. (C) The surprising outcome of this election was due more
to the once- formidable Democratic League of Kosovo's (LDK)
dramatic decline - from 41 seats to 25 - than to the PDK's
otherwise respectable seven-seat gain. President Sejdiu
received substantially fewer votes than both Democratic Party
of Kosovo (PDK) chairman Hashim Thaci and deputy chairman
Fatmir Limaj. Veton Surroi's Reform ORA party also fared
surprisingly poorly, losing its own supporters and also
failing to attract disaffected LDK voters who went instead
with New Kosovo Alliance (AKR) and LDK-splinter party, the
Democratic League of Dardania (LDD). AKR and LDD made strong
overtures to disaffected LDK voters, capitalizing on
dissatisfaction with the party's lackluster record on
governance; in such a politically muddled environment, PDK
deftly positioned itself to take the lead.


3. (SBU) Although results have been certified, the list of
Assembly members could change in the coming weeks: several
members are candidates for mayor in the December 8 run-off
election, and many of the most promising MPs, especially in
PDK, will naturally vie for ministry positions. (NOTE: At
the moment, ministers are allowed to concurrently sit in the
Assembly, but this will likely change under the new
Constitution now being drafted. END NOTE.)

Who's up, who's down


4. (C) Interesting new figures in the Assembly include, for
LDK, former prime minister-in-exile Bujar Bukoshi. Bukoshi
is suspected by some to have misused the so-called "3 percent
fund," a voluntary tax Kosovo Albanians in exile paid to
support their shadow LDK government during the Milosevic
years of repression. But Bukoshi remains popular: while
placed at number 93 on the ballot, reportedly due to internal
LDK resistance to including him on the list at all, Bukoshi
shot up to 14th place in votes cast and could present a
challenge to Sejdiu's leadership. LDK troublemaker Sabri
Hamiti finished a strong second place to Sejdiu, beating LDK
leadership figures such as Deputy PM Lutfi Haziri, Assembly
Speaker Kole Berisha, and Prizren Mayor Eqrem Kryeziu.
Ministers Termkolli (public service),Veliu (education),
Rexhepi (formerly interior) and Shatri (finance),and
outgoing Pristina and Peja mayors Ismet Beqiri and Ali Lajci
made the cut for Assembly positions, but Haraqija (youth and
culture) and Ahmeti (transportation) did not. Influential
LDK matriarch Nekibe Kelmendi kept her number 3 spot with

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votes, almost surpassing Hamiti with no help from the
Assembly gender representation requirement (NOTE: At least 30
percent of the Assembly must be female. This provision
caused some men to be passed over for seats in order to meet
the 30 percent gender balance rule. END NOTE.)


5. (C) In the PDK caucus, some of the party's best talent
rose to the top of the list. PDK youth leader Memli
Krasniqi, part of PDK's "brain gain" contingent, having
recently returned from London School of Economics, rose from
number 31 to number 16 in the caucus. High-profile
intellectuals Enver Hoxhaj and Hajredin Kuci, along with
spokeswoman Vlora Citaku, finished in the top ten. Former
LDK member and now ADK leader Edita Tahiri did well with an
8th-place finish. The caucus unfortunately also kept Nait
Hasani and Hydajet Hyseni, unhelpful representatives of the
party's extreme wing, although another nationalist, Xhevat
Bislimi, did not make the cut.


6. (SBU) The AAK party might have been expected to suffer
major losses due to the absence of its charismatic leader,
Ramush Haradinaj, on trial in The Hague for alleged war
crimes. Yet the party, with its base in the influential
western city of Peja, managed to gain an additional seat over
the previous election. Hurt by the gender requirement, three
AAK ministers -- Ethem Ceku (energy),Jonuz Salihaj
(justice),and Bujar Dugolli (trade) -- did not make the cut.
(NOTE: Only the top four Kosovo Albanian parties take
seats in the Assembly Presidency, meaning that 5th-place AAK
will not have a seat. A less-representative Presidency may
lose some of its clout in the new mandate. END NOTE.)


7. (C) AKR's 13-person caucus may end up being a 12-person
caucus. Attorney Riza Smaka, the number 10 candidate on the
AKR list, resigned from the party following a Pacolli
statement that "Belgrade-Pristina status talks should have
taken place in Belgrade, Pristina, Prizren, and Kragujevac."
The resignation was before the election, but after ballot
printing had begun, so it was not possible to remove him from
the list. As the Assembly mandate belongs to individuals
rather than parties, it is Smaka's to resign and he has
reportedly told AKR he does not plan to leave the Assembly
but will stay on as an independent.


8. (C) LDD, Nexhat Daci's LDK splinter party, did
surprisingly well, picking up 5 seats with double-digit
support in ten municipalities including Decan, Istok, Gjilan,
Klina, Peja, Ferizaj, and Viti. Gani Geci, who started the
fistfight at the LDK convention that led to the splinter, and
who punched a PDK MP in the face outside the Assembly last
year, remains in the LDD caucus. Demo-Christian party leader
Mark Krasniqi also joined the LDD caucus, along with Naser
Rugova, former AAK PM Kosumi adviser and nephew of the late
President Rugova.

Non-Serb minority parties pick up extra seats


9. (U) With 10 set-aside seats for the non-Serb minority
parties, ethnic Bosniak parties picked up two extra seats,
the ethnic Turkish party one, and the Roma parties one, for a
total of 14 total seats. Kosovo Serb parties did not win any
seats above their set-aside. (NOTE: Kosovo electoral law
provides for 10 seats set aside for the Serb community, and
10 for non-Serb communities. However, these communities can
win extra seats if their candidates win more votes, relative
to the size of their communities. END NOTE.)

Next Steps


10. (U) The Kosovo Assembly must hold its inaugural session
within 30 days of the December 5 certification of election
results. We anticipate this will happen considerably sooner
than the deadline, and possibly within the next week to ten
days. Outgoing Speaker Kole Berisha will call the session,
chaired by the Assembly's oldest member with assistance from
its youngest. The new Assembly President and Presidency are
elected during the inaugural session.

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11. (C) COMMENT: Generally, the election process and its
aftermath went smoothly, especially when seen in the light of
the short timeframe in which the elections were organized and
the complex balloting involved. The loss of the civic-minded
ORA caucus and corruption-fighting Justice Party MP Ferid
Agani will be a blow to the Assembly's development into a
functioning institution able to hold ministries to account.
Neither of the incoming parties - LDD nor AKR - is likely to
take up this role. Activity will now shift to the coalition
talks and government formation. A PDK-LDK coalition,
reinforced by Serb and non-Serb minority parties, is the
likeliest outcome, though by no means an assured one;
significant resistance obtains in both parties due to the
violent history between the former KLA (the bulk of PDK's
constituency) and LDK activists during the Kosovo conflict.
Such a coalition, however, would give PM-designate Hashim
Thaci a reasonably strong parliamentary majority (anywhere
from 70 to 75 seats) to tackle the real challenges that lie
ahead, including passage of Ahtisaari and status-related
legislation, as well as Kosovo's new constitution. USOP will
continue to urge quick government formation and impress on
all parties the importance of stability at a critical time in
the status process. End comment.
KAIDANOW