KOSOVO: ASSEMBLY ELECTION RESULTS BRING IMPORTANT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 PRISTINA 000811 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR DRL, INL, AND EUR/SCE, NSC FOR BRAUN, USUN FOR DREW SCHUFLETOWSKI, USOSCE FOR STEVE STEGER E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/06/2017 TAGS: PGOV KDEM UNMIK YI KV SUBJECT: KOSOVO: ASSEMBLY ELECTION RESULTS BRING IMPORTANT CHANGES REF: PRISTINA 804 Classified By: COM TINA KAIDANOW FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: SRSG Ruecker certified the results of the November 17 Kosovo Assembly election on December 5. Among the Albanian parties, seat distribution of the 120-seat Assembly comprises the following (previous number of seats in parentheses): Hashim Thaci's PDK 37 (30),President Sejdiu's LDK 25 (41),Bexhet Pacolli's AKR 13 (0),Nexhat Daci's LDD 11 (6),and Ramush Haradinaj's AAK 10 (9). Veton Surroi's ORA party did not pass the 5 percent threshold and is out of the Assembly. The Islam-oriented Justice Party is out as well. Although most of the "new" MPs are not new to politics, each party added new personalities and the Assembly may have a very different dynamic this mandate. It will also include 24 minority members, two more than in the previous mandate. Kosovo's non-Serb minority communities, with their 10 set-aside seats, picked up an additional four seats as well. The biggest surprise of the election has been the dramatic collapse of the once-formidable LDK, which lost the election more than the PDK won it. Given the short period of organization and the complicated balloting, the elections process and aftermath went fairly smoothly. Activity will now shift to coalition talks and government formation, with the most likely coalition being PDK-LDK, reinforced by some Serb and non-Serb parties. (Reftel reports results of Kosovo Serb vote and its implications.) END SUMMARY. More LDK's big loss than PDK's big win ¶2. (C) The surprising outcome of this election was due more to the once- formidable Democratic League of Kosovo's (LDK) dramatic decline - from 41 seats to 25 - than to the PDK's otherwise respectable seven-seat gain. President Sejdiu received substantially fewer votes than both Democratic Party of Kosovo (PDK) chairman Hashim Thaci and deputy chairman Fatmir Limaj. Veton Surroi's Reform ORA party also fared surprisingly poorly, losing its own supporters and also failing to attract disaffected LDK voters who went instead with New Kosovo Alliance (AKR) and LDK-splinter party, the Democratic League of Dardania (LDD). AKR and LDD made strong overtures to disaffected LDK voters, capitalizing on �0A;dissatisfaction with the party's lackluster record on governance; in such a politically muddled environment, PDK deftly positioned itself to take the lead. ¶3. (SBU) Although results have been certified, the list of Assembly members could change in the coming weeks: several members are candidates for mayor in the December 8 run-off election, and many of the most promising MPs, especially in PDK, will naturally vie for ministry positions. (NOTE: At the moment, ministers are allowed to concurrently sit in the Assembly, but this will likely change under the new Constitution now being drafted. END NOTE.) Who's up, who's down ¶4. (C) Interesting new figures in the Assembly include, for LDK, former prime minister-in-exile Bujar Bukoshi. Bukoshi is suspected by some to have misused the so-called "3 percent fund," a voluntary tax Kosovo Albanians in exile paid to support their shadow LDK government during the Milosevic years of repression. But Bukoshi remains popular: while placed at number 93 on the ballot, reportedly due to internal LDK resistance to including him on the list at all, Bukoshi shot up to 14th place in votes cast and could present a challenge to Sejdiu's leadership. LDK troublemaker Sabri Hamiti finished a strong second place to Sejdiu, beating LDK leadership figures such as Deputy PM Lutfi Haziri, Assembly Speaker Kole Berisha, and Prizren Mayor Eqrem Kryeziu. Ministers Termkolli (public service),Veliu (education), Rexhepi (formerly interior) and Shatri (finance),and outgoing Pristina and Peja mayors Ismet Beqiri and Ali Lajci made the cut for Assembly positions, but Haraqija (youth and culture) and Ahmeti (transportation) did not. Influential LDK matriarch Nekibe Kelmendi kept her number 3 spot with PRISTINA 00000811 002 OF 003 votes, almost surpassing Hamiti with no help from the Assembly gender representation requirement (NOTE: At least 30 percent of the Assembly must be female. This provision caused some men to be passed over for seats in order to meet the 30 percent gender balance rule. END NOTE.) ¶5. (C) In the PDK caucus, some of the party's best talent rose to the top of the list. PDK youth leader Memli Krasniqi, part of PDK's "brain gain" contingent, having recently returned from London School of Economics, rose from number 31 to number 16 in the caucus. High-profile intellectuals Enver Hoxhaj and Hajredin Kuci, along with spokeswoman Vlora Citaku, finished in the top ten. Former LDK member and now ADK leader Edita Tahiri did well with an 8th-place finish. The caucus unfortunately also kept Nait Hasani and Hydajet Hyseni, unhelpful representatives of the party's extreme wing, although another nationalist, Xhevat Bislimi, did not make the cut. ¶6. (SBU) The AAK party might have been expected to suffer major losses due to the absence of its charismatic leader, Ramush Haradinaj, on trial in The Hague for alleged war crimes. Yet the party, with its base in the influential western city of Peja, managed to gain an additional seat over the previous election. Hurt by the gender requirement, three AAK ministers -- Ethem Ceku (energy),Jonuz Salihaj (justice),and Bujar Dugolli (trade) -- did not make the cut. (NOTE: Only the top four Kosovo Albanian parties take seats in the Assembly Presidency, meaning that 5th-place AAK will not have a seat. A less-representative Presidency may lose some of its clout in the new mandate. END NOTE.) ¶7. (C) AKR's 13-person caucus may end up being a 12-person caucus. Attorney Riza Smaka, the number 10 candidate on the AKR list, resigned from the party following a Pacolli statement that "Belgrade-Pristina status talks should have taken place in Belgrade, Pristina, Prizren, and Kragujevac." The resignation was before the election, but after ballot printing had begun, so it was not possible to remove him from the list. As the Assembly mandate belongs to individuals rather than parties, it is Smaka's to resign and he has reportedly told AKR he does not plan to leave the Assembly but will stay on as an independent. ¶8. (C) LDD, Nexhat Daci's LDK splinter party, did surprisingly well, picking up 5 seats with double-digit support in ten municipalities including Decan, Istok, Gjilan, Klina, Peja, Ferizaj, and Viti. Gani Geci, who started the fistfight at the LDK convention that led to the splinter, and who punched a PDK MP in the face outside the Assembly last year, remains in the LDD caucus. Demo-Christian party leader Mark Krasniqi also joined the LDD caucus, along with Naser Rugova, former AAK PM Kosumi adviser and nephew of the late President Rugova. Non-Serb minority parties pick up extra seats ¶9. (U) With 10 set-aside seats for the non-Serb minority parties, ethnic Bosniak parties picked up two extra seats, the ethnic Turkish party one, and the Roma parties one, for a total of 14 total seats. Kosovo Serb parties did not win any seats above their set-aside. (NOTE: Kosovo electoral law provides for 10 seats set aside for the Serb community, and 10 for non-Serb communities. However, these communities can win extra seats if their candidates win more votes, relative to the size of their communities. END NOTE.) Next Steps ¶10. (U) The Kosovo Assembly must hold its inaugural session within 30 days of the December 5 certification of election results. We anticipate this will happen considerably sooner than the deadline, and possibly within the next week to ten days. Outgoing Speaker Kole Berisha will call the session, chaired by the Assembly's oldest member with assistance from its youngest. The new Assembly President and Presidency are elected during the inaugural session. PRISTINA 00000811 003 OF 003 ¶11. (C) COMMENT: Generally, the election process and its aftermath went smoothly, especially when seen in the light of the short timeframe in which the elections were organized and the complex balloting involved. The loss of the civic-minded ORA caucus and corruption-fighting Justice Party MP Ferid Agani will be a blow to the Assembly's development into a functioning institution able to hold ministries to account. Neither of the incoming parties - LDD nor AKR - is likely to take up this role. Activity will now shift to the coalition talks and government formation. A PDK-LDK coalition, reinforced by Serb and non-Serb minority parties, is the likeliest outcome, though by no means an assured one; significant resistance obtains in both parties due to the violent history between the former KLA (the bulk of PDK's constituency) and LDK activists during the Kosovo conflict. Such a coalition, however, would give PM-designate Hashim Thaci a reasonably strong parliamentary majority (anywhere from 70 to 75 seats) to tackle the real challenges that lie ahead, including passage of Ahtisaari and status-related legislation, as well as Kosovo's new constitution. USOP will continue to urge quick government formation and impress on all parties the importance of stability at a critical time in the status process. End comment. KAIDANOW