KOSOVO: ELECTION RESULTS ALLOW FOR SERB

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PRISTINA 000804 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR DRL, INL, EUR/SCE NSC FOR BRAUN USUN FOR DREW SCHUFLETOWSKI EUR/ACE FOR DMAYHEW E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/05/2017 TAGS: KDEM PGOV KV UNMIK SUBJECT: KOSOVO: ELECTION RESULTS ALLOW FOR SERB REPRESENTATION IN CENTRAL GOVERNMENT; UNMIK MAKES DECISION ON SERB MUNICIPAL AUTHORITIES IN WAKE OF BOYCOTT Classified By: Chief of Mission Tina S. Kaidanow for reasons 1.4 (b),( d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY. With the preliminary results in and 3,297 ballots counted for Serb parties contesting the Assembly vote, Kosovo Serb participation in the November 17 elections appears greater than in 2004. The ten Assembly seats set aside for Serbs were split between six small Kosovo Serb parties, with absentee ballots playing a key role. OSCE and Central Election Commission (CEC) staffers disqualified many mail-in votes due to evidence of fraud, preventing a sweep of the 10 set-aside seats by the Bogljub Karic-PSS party, which has almost no current presence in Kosovo. Faced with a near-total Serb boycott in the municipal elections, SRSG Rucker announced December 5 that he would appoint municipal assemblies and mayors in accordance with the ethnic composition of each municipality. This will mean Serb-controlled assemblies and mayors in Zvecan, Zubin Potok, Leposavic, and Strpce, and a Serb-majority assembly with an Albanian mayor in Novo Brdo. By negating the worst of the mail-in fraud, OSCE and the CEC helped empower the most important local Serb parties, giving Hashim Thaci's PDK viable options for including Serb parties in government. END SUMMARY. Mixed Results... ¶2. (C) With 3,297 votes counted for Kosovo Serb political entities (470 of them by mail),the ten Kosovo Assembly seats set aside for Serbs were distributed among six parties. The moderate Independent Liberal Party (SLS),led by Slobodan Petrovic, received three seats, as did the Serbian Democratic Party of Kosovo (SDSKiM),led by former Minister for Returns Slavisa Petkovic. Four other parties received one seat each - New Democracy (ND),led by current Returns Minister Branislav Grbic; the Serbian Kosovo and Metohija Party (SKMS),led by Dragisa Miric; the Serb National Party (SNS), led by Mihailo Scepanovic; and the Council of Independent Social Democrats of Kosovo (SNSDKiM). Only SDSKiM and ND have participated in government before. On December 4, SDSKiM, SKMS, SNS, and SNSDKiM announced a four-party, six-seat coalition in an attempt to join the government, though no deal has yet been struck with any Albanian party. ...After Heavy Cuts ¶3. (C) OSCE international staffers inside the vote-counting operation kept us well-informed in the run-up to the release of preliminary results on December 1. The arrival of 4100 absentee ballots cast for the Movement of Serbian Forces (PSS) party, led by the controversial Serbian banker Bogoljub Karic (now on the run in Moscow from an indictment launched by the Kostunica government) took almost everyone at the OSCE and Central Election Commission (CEC) by surprise. PSS has a very low - in fact, almost invisible - current profile in Kosovo. The party did not conduct any visible campaign before the November 17 elections, and even party officials admitted to us that PSS's 10 Assembly candidates were literal unknowns. If counted, these 4100 votes would have been sufficient to capture most or all of the 10 set-aside seats. However, CEC disqualified all but 38 of the PSS absentee ballots, as they appeared to be the product of a either a fraud or vote-buying campaign. OSCE officials told us that the other Kosovo Serb parties all submitted their own questionable mail-in ballots, many of which (roughly 14,000) were disqualified. (Note: OSCE has not yet finished data entry; we will get the final number of disqualified ballots in a few days. End Note.) Dealing with the municipalities ¶4. (C) In the face of a near-total Kosovo Serb boycott of municipal elections, the SRSG announced that he would, in accordance with prevailing ethnic balance, appoint municipal PRISTINA 00000804 002 OF 002 assemblies and mayors in the northern municipalities, Strpce, and Novo Brdo, for a term of six months. The SRSG will not certify electoral results in the three northern municipalities (Zvecan, Zubin Potok, and Leposavic) due to the extremely low turnout. The results in Strpce and Novo Brdo, which have significant Albanian populations, will be certified to provide a basis for selecting new Albanian municipal assembly members. The current Serb assembly members will remain in place and continue to hold a majority in all five municipalities. The SRSG will appoint Serb mayors in Zvecan, Zubin Potok, Leposavic, and Strpce, but will appoint an Albanian mayor in Novo Brdo. ¶5. (C) COMMENT. Despite the presence of some suspect mail-in ballots, the fact that 3,297 votes were counted for Kosovo Serb parties -- and that 2,827 of them were physically cast in Kosovo -- represents a willingness by at least some Serbs to ignore Belgrade and have a say in their governance. While none of the elected parties can be considered truly representative, future Prime Minister Hashim Thaci will have some viable options to choose from to fulfill his stated intent of including Kosovo Serbs in his government. PDK officials inferred to P/E Chief December 3 that they could invite the SLS's three Assembly members into the governing coalition, and Prime-Minister designate Hashim Thaci made clear to the COM and to visiting Amb. Wisner that he fully intended to include Serb and non-Serb minority members in his government, though he has yet to indicate a preference for any specific party or candidates. END COMMENT. KAIDANOW