KOSOVO ELECTIONS PROCEED CALMLY: PDK WINS BIG,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PRISTINA 000783

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR DRL, INL, AND EUR/SCE, NSC FOR BRAUN, USUN FOR
DREW SCHUFLETOWSKI, USOSCE FOR STEVE STEGER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/19/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM
SUBJECT: KOSOVO ELECTIONS PROCEED CALMLY: PDK WINS BIG,
LDK LOSES GROUND, AND SERBS STAY AWAY IN DROVES

REF: USOP SITREPS OF 11/17/07

Classified By: COM TINA KAIDANOW FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D).


1. (C) SUMMARY: Kosovars went to the polls on November 17 to
elect their central and local assemblies, as well as mayors
in Kosovo's 30 municipalities. USOP observer teams, plus the
Council of Europe mission and local NGOs, all reported
technically sound balloting. KFOR, UNMIK and the Kosovo
Police Service (KPS) reported no serious incidents. Snowy
weather may have contributed to the 43-45 percent turnout,
not a markedly lower figure than the 50 percent turnout in
2004 elections. Hashim Thaci's PDK was the biggest winner;
LDK, the current ruling party, was the biggest loser; and
LDK's rival offshoot party, the LDD, was the day's biggest
surprise, along with a significant showing by AKR, the party
of Swiss emigre businessman Bexhet Pacolli. Kosovo's Serbs
observed the boycott, with clear signs of intimidation from
their own leaders. A coalition among the PDK, LDK and ICTY
indictee Ramush Haradinaj's AAK would provide the most stable
outcome, given the demands of the post-Troika talks period.
The LDK, after an initial period of shock, is coming around
to this idea, but the likelihood of a PDK-AAK rapprochement
is harder to envision. An LDK-PDK coalition without AAK
would have a majority, but not as convincing, and could mean
continued sparring between government and opposition during
the status determination period. END SUMMARY.

PDK Emerges Victorious


2. (SBU) Unofficial, parallel vote results of Kosovo's
November 17 elections, from a coalition of USG-funded NGOs,
show a resounding victory for former KLA leader Hashim
Thaci's Democratic Party of Kosovo (PDK). Turnout was a bit
lower than in previous years (some 43-45 percent),possibly
due to inclement weather. Based on our teams' reporting, the
process went smoothly and the isolated technical problems
that our 14 USOP teams saw throughout Kosovo had no impact on
the results.


3. (SBU) The unofficial parallel vote tally (PVT) shows the
PDK with 34 percent. The ruling Democratic League of Kosovo
(LDK) -- which had won every previous election in Kosovo --
is at 22 percent. Swiss emigre multimillionaire businessman
Bexhet Pacolli's New Kosovo Alliance (AKR) party finished
third with 12 percent (a comfortable showing though one not
necessarily consonant with the amount of money poured by
Pacolli into the campaign),followed by Nexhat Daci's
Democratic League of Dardania (LDD) with 10 percent, and
Ramush Haradinaj's Alliance for the Future of Kosovo (AAK)
with 9 percent. Results still show Veton Surroi's Reformist
Party (ORA) party at 4 percent, thus below the five percent
threshold. (Note: The PVT is based on around 2,400
observers at polling stations around Kosovo text messaging
results from the vote count to a dedicated, central server.
While we expect the PVT results to generally hold true for
the larger parties, because the PVT only counted the six
leading vote-getters, the ORA figure could grow since it was
likely the seventh or eighth party in some districts.)


4. (U) Our observers reported that voters did not have
trouble with the three-ballot, open-list system, with many
saying that frequent voter education TV ads helped explain
the process. (One ad that was cited showed a mildly
exasperated 8 year-old girl explaining to her befuddled
father just how simple the process was.) Particularly in
rural areas, our observers reported voters were coming
prepared with their lists pre-selected. There were no
security incidents and our teams reported that local election
officials were well-trained and generally followed the rules.

Serb Boycott Holds Universally


5. (U) According to the Central Election Commission (CEC),
some 750 Serbs voted in the election. The Serb enclave of
Gracanica had the "highest" turnout (200),while the northern
Serb-majority municipality of Leposavic reported a single

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voter. Under half of the 104 polling stations in Serb areas
opened, and most of those were staffed by internationals.
School administrators refused to open their premises, and in
one case, children blocked USOP access to their school. OSCE
had mobile voting stations, and other stations were
consolidated and relocated into municipal buildings. Our
observers reported the presence of other "observers" in Serb
areas, men in plain clothes who were clearly there to
discourage Serb participation.


6. (U) There will be runoff elections on December 8 for
mayors in 25 of 27 municipalities. (Note: This does not
include the three Serb-majority municipalities of Zvecan,
Zubin Potok, and Leposavic.) The PDK won outright in its
western strongholds of Skenderaj/Prekaz and Drenac; in
Skenderaj/Prekaz, PDK candidate Sami Lushtaku won 80 percent
of the vote. Early returns show that the PDK is doing well in
local elections, with the LDD also faring well in eastern
Kosovo.

Comment


7. (C) Informal coalition discussions began immediately and
will continue in the days ahead. Thaci has indicated to us
privately that he will offer LDK a coalition arrangement;
though the LDK defeat has left the party demoralized and some
of its members inclined to move the party into opposition, we
sense that the tide is turning and the LDK will in the end
acknowledge the benefit of being in government at the time
when status is finally determined. The addition of AAK to
the coalition would be beneficial as well, providing a more
convincing majority, but Hashim Thaci's traditional antipathy
to Ramush Haradinaj will make this difficult to achieve,
raising the possibility of continued government-opposition
sparring through the status determination period.


8. (C) COMMENT (cont'd): No Kosovo Serb will be able to
claim an elected mandate at either the central or local
level. UNMIK is still deciding how to deal with this
challenge, the likeliest outcome being an UNMIK-sanctioned
continued mandate for sitting Serb municipal authorities in
northern Kosovo and some attempt to appoint ethnic Albanians
in proportion to their percentage of the electorate in the
mixed areas of Novo Brdo and Strpce. The latter will be a
difficult proposition to enforce, with Serb local authorities
-- backed by Belgrade -- promising not to respect any outcome
that displaces sitting authorities. Nevertheless, the overall
outcome of these elections is a positive one: both the
campaign and the elections themselves were conducted
democratically, with results respected by all despite some
surprises and disappointments for the parties involved. End
comment.
KAIDANOW