KOSOVO: PDK HANGS TOGETHER DESPITE DIFFERENCES,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PRISTINA 000611 SIPDIS NOFORN SIPDIS DEPT FOR DRL, INL, AND EUR/SCE, NSC FOR BRAUN, USUN FOR DREW SCHUFLETOWSKI, USOSCE FOR STEVE STEGER E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/07/2017 TAGS: PGOV KDEM UNMIK KV YI SUBJECT: KOSOVO: PDK HANGS TOGETHER DESPITE DIFFERENCES, QUESTIONS ABOUT THACI'S LEADERSHIP Classified By: CDA ALEX LASKARIS FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D). ¶1. (C/NF) SUMMARY: As a possible election season approaches, the opposition Democratic Party of Kosovo (PDK) is hanging together despite internal fault lines. PDK MPs are frustrated with the Unity Team and have criticized party president Hashim Thaci's leadership. Thaci himself is reportedly backsliding in his support for open list elections, fearing that his main rival E.O. listee Fatmir Limaj may be more popular than he. However, party officials still urged that elections be held as soon as possible, and are confident that the new open list system will not lead to damaging intra-party competition. Optimism about the party,s chances in elections will likely encourage members to close ranks in the near term, believing that the PDK will do well enough in the next elections to win key posts, including the premiership. END SUMMARY. MOVING FORWARD BUT UNSURE OF THE DETAILS ¶2. (C/NF) As the fractious July 30 Kosovo Assembly debate demonstrated, the PDK does not have a unified stance on the status delay. PDK caucus leader Jakup Krasniqi harshly criticized the Unity Team's efforts, while PDK Assembly presidency member Xhavit Haliti defended not setting a deadline. In our earlier private conversations with many PDK officials, several directly criticized Thaci for the compromises the UT made and for letting internationals lead the process, but none openly challenged his authority or suggested alternate leaders. ¶3. (C/NF) However, PDK officials said they expect significant changes in the makeup of the PDK Assembly caucus after central elections. Hajredin Kuci, an MP and leading member of the constitutional working group, said that many hardline PDK MPs have not contributed much to the PDK's effort to govern and were only given seats as a reward for their actions during the 1999 conflict. He felt two mandates in the Assembly were enough for the likes of hardliners such as Hydajet Hyseni, Nait Hasani, and Xhevat Bislimi, and the PDK should start looking to fill its Assembly seats with, in Kuci's words, "people who can actually govern." According to Kuci, this would include Hague-acquitted E.O.-listee Fatmir Limaj, Jakup Krasniqi, MP Enver Hoxhaj, and the currently unaffiliated AmCham president (and former Prime Minister Bajram Rexhepi's spokeswoman) Mimoza Kusari. ¶4. (C/NF) PDK Pristina branch president Ramadan Avdiu also listed Limaj, Hoxhaj, and Krasniqi as popular potential candidates, along with Haliti, Kuci, Thaci, and Rexhepi. For his part, Rexhepi endorsed Krasniqi, Hoxhaj, Kuci, and MP Fehmi Mujota, but singled out Nait Hasani and Fatmir Limaj's MP brother Demir Limaj as being among the 16 or 17 PDK MPs unlikely to win Assembly seats in the next election. Hyseni and Hasani both harshly criticized the UT, and Rexhepi and Hyseni expressed disappointment in Thaci's performance as a leader. Hyseni complained that the Kosovo leadership should take some initiative rather than taking a backseat to internationals leading the process. Rexhepi worried that no Kosovo leader, Thaci included, has the authority - moral or otherwise - to keep Kosovars calm in case of a provocative, March 2004-style incident. UNITY DURING ELECTIONS? ¶5. (SBU) Historically, intra-party competition among candidates has been restricted to party conventions, which occur on a separate calendar from elections. The 2004 central elections were held with a closed list; parties chose candidates and put them on the ballot in the priority order they preferred. The next elections, however, will likely be open-list; the party will still choose its candidates, but Assembly seats will go to the individual candidates who receive the most votes in their parties ) essentially, the voting public re-orders the list. This situation is somewhat like having a combined primary and regular election, and PRISTINA 00000611 002 OF 002 candidates could campaign against members of their own parties to gain party votes. ¶6. (C/NF) PDK officials said they did not expect that their candidates would negatively campaign against each other during elections. Instead, they said they would travel to their home regions to campaign positively for themselves and the party. Experts who provide training to political parties also doubted candidates would develop sophisticated enough strategies to campaign against party rivals without being seen as traitors themselves. STRONG ENOUGH TO RUN ALONE ¶7. (C/NF) Although a possible five percent election threshold for parties to gain Assembly seats has sparked discussion of pre-election coalitions, Krasniqi expressed confidence that PDK does not need to join forces with anyone in order to take over the government following elections. Kuci favored governing (though not necessarily pre-election) coalitions between PDK and several smaller parties. According to party training experts, the PDK's youth wing is more active than ever, capitalizing on the LDK-LDD split that devastated the formerly powerful LDK youth wing. Every PDK official stressed the importance of holding elections as soon as possible. THACI REPORTEDLY AFRAID OF LIMAJ ON OPEN LIST ¶8. (C/NF) In a recent twist, according to PDSRSG Schook (protect),Thaci fears Limaj will receive more votes than he, and has therefore expressed reservations about holding open list elections. Although PDK officials below Thaci do not envision campaigning directly against each other, it is unclear how Thaci and Limaj would themselves behave during campaign season. ¶9. (C/NF) COMMENT: Many PDK members are frustrated with both the Unity Team and hardline MPs. Thaci's fear indicates an escalation of the Thaci-Limaj rivalry that could polarize lower-level factions within the party. But party officials are united in pushing for elections as soon as possible, and confident that the new open-list system will not inspire damaging intra-party competition, at least below the level of Thaci and Limaj. With momentum growing in the PDK youth wing, the overall mood is optimistic that the party will emerge from elections with a firm hold on the Kosovo government. As long as this optimism prevails, PDK members will likely stick together to win together. LASKARIS