KOSOVO: UNITY TEAM UNDER MOUNTING PRESSURE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PRISTINA 000490 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR EUR/SCE, NSC FOR BRAUN, USUN FOR DREW SCHUFLETOWSKI E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/22/2017 TAGS: PGOV PREL UNMIK YI SUBJECT: KOSOVO: UNITY TEAM UNDER MOUNTING PRESSURE REF: PRISTINA 477 Classified By: COM TINA KAIDANOW FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Media attacks against Kosovo's fragile Unity Team (UT),composed of leading governing and opposition figures, are becoming an almost daily occurrence, as public frustration mounts over the continued uncertainty of final status. In the face of what is perceived here to be backsliding on the part of international community, the UT, which negotiated the Ahtisaari final status package, has borne the brunt of the criticism for not delivering independence. Attacks center on the UT's inability to defend Kosovo's interests and to clearly articulate to Kosovars what needs to be done. This criticism had its first ugly repercussion in the Kosovo Assembly on June 21, when an opposition caucus introduced a motion to dissolve the UT altogether. The motion failed, but not overwhelmingly so, indicating clear apathy on the part of MPs about the UT. The Unity Team remains the core element of our strategy to maintain peace and stability in Kosovo; it is the sina qua non for continued public support of the Ahtisaari plan and its implementation. We will ramp up our efforts to support the Team publicly and privately, though fractures within the team also pose a challenge to its continued functioning. END SUMMARY. Attacking Unity Team now daily sport ¶2. (C) In recent days, and largely as the result of continuing uncertainty and disappointment in the pace of the status process, the Unity Team (UT) has come under severe public and media pressure for not delivering independence. On June 18, the day after the visit of Special Envoy Wisner to Kosovo (reftel),the editor-in-chief of the largest circulation daily "Koha Ditore" wrote a scathing editorial aimed squarely at the UT, claiming it had surrendered its legitimacy and that its disappearance would allow Kosovars to take matters into their own hands and not just be the "executors" of the policies and positions of "external factors." The Koha editorial also, for the first time, criticized those who placed "blind faith" in the United State to deliver independence -- an extremely unusual and bitter pronouncement in the overwhelmingly pro-American environment of Kosovo politics. ¶3. (C) On June 19 another daily, "Kosovo Sot," took up the charge, blasting the Unity Team for remaining silent even as some countries (read: key Europeans) "have oriented the process of resolution towards new negotiations." The editorial goes on to insist that Kosovo's leaders must not be passive, but should react jointly and strongly against any postponement and show that the people cannot "be dragged around because of the political appetites of Russia and Serbia." ¶4. (C) Under a June 20 front-page headline entitled "The Failure of a Team," daily tabloid "Lajm" argued that, having failed to secure independence, the UT should either be enlarged with new (and presumably harder-line) leaders, or it should be dissolved altogether, and its competencies passed to the Assembly. This issue of accountability was picked up the next day by "Koha Ditore" once again, in an editorial calling for UT members to resign en masse -- both to acknowledge they have failed and to demonstrate to Kosovo's international partners that Kosovo "no longer believes in nonsense." (Comment: Koha Ditore publisher and UT member Veton Surroi has no doubt sanctioned, if not contributed to these editorials as a means to improve his standing among the Kosovar public. He has not attended a UT meeting in several weeks, much to the dismay of his UT colleagues, and recently said he was "bored" with his duties as a UT member. End Comment.) Attack moves to the Assembly ¶5. (C) Seizing on the negative atmospherics, the small parliamentary opposition "Group for Integration" (GOI) on June 21 introduced a motion in the Kosovo Assembly to PRISTINA 00000490 002 OF 002 dissolve the Unity Team and pass its competencies back to the Assembly. GOI leader Ferid Agani argued on the floor that the UT had lost its reason for being, and that he would seek a report on UT financial expenditures since the body came into existence. Speaker Kole Berisha, himself a UT member, told us he could not prevent the motion and was forced to allow the vote to proceed. Of the 70 members present, 9 voted in favor of the motion, 29 against, and 4 abstained. Clearly apathetic whether the UT survived or not -- despite their respective parties' association with the Team -- many MPs did not vote at all. Anecdotal evidence suggests that the 29 votes in favor of retaining the team came from governing coalition LDK and AAK delegates primarily, though the Assembly's bizarre non-accountable voting procedures prevents exact knowledge. ¶6. (C) COMMENT: Admittedly, the Unity Team has never been an ideal body. Its leaders squabble among themselves and have done little to communicate a clear message of leadership to the people of Kosovo. However, it is the only forum in which Kosovo's diverse leaders can project a unified, moderate face to the international community. Should it collapse, the free-for-all that would likely ensue between government and opposition could lead to a real breakdown in the political process and open criticism of the Ahtisaari package itself. We are not at the point yet where the Team is in imminent danger of collapse; its two primary members, Kosovo President Sejdiu and opposition leader Thaci, are still committed to unity and their involvement is central to the Team's survival. ¶7. (C) Comment, Cont. Still, another round of Security Council drafting -- particularly if it specifically precludes Kosovo independence -- or any other shock of a similar variety could produce a pressure so terrific that Team members would not be able to withstand it and would be forced to cede to the public mood. Alternatively, the Kosovo Assembly -- a fractious and unpredictable bunch at the best of times -- could take action on its own to limit or rescind the Team's mandate. And, finally, the Team's least committed members -- Surroi and PM Ceku (who chafes under the restrictions imposed by unity and his consequent loss in popular support) -- could decide to leave altogether if the heat gets too intense. We will work to bolster the Team, a vital part of our overall strategy for peace and security in Kosovo, through public reinforcement of its goals and its performance, as well as through private encouragement of its individual members. KAIDANOW