KOSOVO: BALKAN WATCHERS' CONFERENCE BRINGS USG

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 PRISTINA 000348 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR DRL, INL, AND EUR/SCE, NSC FOR BRAUN, USUN FOR DREW SCHUFLETOWSKI, USOSCE FOR STEVE STEGER E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV KJUS KCRM EAID KDEM UNMIK YI SUBJECT: KOSOVO: BALKAN WATCHERS' CONFERENCE BRINGS USG ACTION OFFICERS TO BELGRADE AND PRISTINA ¶1. (U) This is a joint Embassy Belgrade-US Office Pristina message. ¶2. (SBU) SUMMARY: On April 16-18, Balkans watchers from Embassies Berlin, Paris, Rome, Skopje, USEU, and USNATO participated in familiarization visits to both Belgrade and Pristina. Co-hosted by Embassy Belgrade and US Office Pristina, the three-day event was organized to help our colleagues better understand the situation on the ground as well as the policy framework under which we operate. It was also an important opportunity to enhance the already close cooperation between Embassy Belgrade and USOP. END SUMMARY. View from the North: Supervised Autonomy Only ¶3. (SBU) The common view espoused in Serbia is that any UNSC resolution granting independence for Kosovo is both unlikely and bad for stability in Serbia and the region. Belgrade's Coordination Center for Kosovo and Metohija (CCK) Director Sanda Raskovic-Ivic and members of the Serbian Negotiating Team for Kosovo, Dr. Kojen and Professor Samardzic, laid out their case against Kosovo independence in a familiar pattern. Major themes included the illegality under international law of an independent Kosovo, the economic crisis an independent Kosovo would inherit, and the instability such an outcome would invite. ¶4. (SBU) Samardzic focused on the difference between the cases of Montenegro and Kosovo ) in particular, the legal status within Yugoslavia of Montenegro as a constituent republic co-equal with Serbia, and Kosovo as a province of Serbia. All parties used the phrase "more than autonomy, less than independence" and refused to entertain alternative scenarios. Both Kojen and Samardzic held that supervised autonomy for Kosovo would be the better solution for Kosovo and regional stability, and complained that this option had been hard to discuss given the current sentiment in the international community. Both said they found other UNSC countries' purported skepticism towards the Ahtisaari plan surprising and encouraging. ¶5. (SBU) Raskovic-Ivic stressed concern over violence by Kosovar Albanians, which she feels will increase should independence be granted. She characterized the Ahtisaari plan as an improper reward for Albanian misbehavior and claimed it violates the UN charter,s guarantee of territorial integrity by relegating a smaller number of municipalities to the Serbian people than what they had before. Raskovic-Ivic singled out a recent OSCE report that indicated problems with "rule of law" within the government and commented that the report used the term "kingdom of fear" to describe the current Albanian and Serb sentiment towards each other in Kosovo. She acknowledged the good work being done by KFOR and said she supports the UNSC visit and predicted that months of delay would follow it. View from Kosovo ¶6. (SBU) After Belgrade, the Balkans watchers headed for Pristina with Minister of Environmental and Spatial Planning Ardian Gjini, Kosovo Negotiating Team Coordinator Blerim Shala, and opposition Democratic Party of Kosovo presidency and Assembly member Enver Hoxhaj. All three leaders confirmed their support of the Ahtisaari plan, agreed that decentralization would be the most difficult part to implement, and expressed concern that while Kosovo is calm now, continued delay would increase the risk of violence. ¶7. (SBU) Shala appreciated recent comments by U/S Burns regarding USG recognition of an independent Kosovo, said he felt the status process was on track, and downplayed the potential threat from the small, extremist group, the Self-Determination Movement. Shala called the Ahtisaari plan a "second chance" for Kosovo that the international community should act upon quickly. ¶8. (SBU) PDK representative Hoxhaj was much less patient PRISTINA 00000348 002 OF 002 regarding the Kosovo timeline and said USG pressure continues to be very necessary in that it is the only true stabilizing force in the region. Hoxhaj blamed Belgrade for the lack of a productive working relationship between Serbs and Albanians, noting that Kosovo Albanians have been trying to establish communication for some time now but have received nothing in return from the GOS. Hoxhaj maintained that it is also Belgrade's job to encourage Kosovo Serbs to stay in an independent Kosovo. In Hoxhaj's view, Serb officials still have room for compromise, and he and urged them to be more willing to engage in communication given the unsatisfactory talks held so far. He said Kosovo is far from stable, and worried that the Serbian diplomatic offensive is working. ¶9. (SBU) Balkan Watchers also had the opportunity to meet with USKFOR Commander Brigadier General Earhart at KFOR HQ in Pristina. Earhart said multiethnic cooperation is already evident in several Kosovo municipalities and told us about KFOR staging mock emergency actions in Serb communities to demonstrate their readiness and ability to protect local communities, including churches. Earhart echoed other interlocutors' concerns that a delay in the status process will only make the job of keeping the peace more difficult. In particular, he said that since the border region is realistically under neither Belgrade nor Pristina,s effective control, delay could very well ignite isolated violence there. Still, Earhart said crime (such as smuggling and corruption) is a bigger issue in his area of responsibility than inter-ethnic tension. Mitrovica: Not So Fearful ¶10. (SBU) During their visit to the town of Mitrovica, the group met with local Serb representatives Oliver Ivanovic, Goran Bogdanovic, and Gojko Savic. They focused on the damaging effects independence would have on Mitrovica and the Serb-managed faculties of the University of Pristina, Mitrovica branch. With a 60 percent unemployment rate in the area, the survival of the university as a major employer is economically crucial for Kosovo Serbs, they said. They worried that independence would eventually lead to the disintegration of the university. ¶11. (SBU) The conference ended with a brief meeting with UNMIK Mitrovica representative (and former State FSO) Jerry Gallucci. In addition to echoing others' concerns over status delay, Gallucci also expressed doubts about KFOR's political will, and whether or not they would engage militarily to protect the Serbian minority should independence be granted. In his view, if status is delayed, Kosovo Albanians will not wait for a UNSC resolution but will try to re-claim former Albanian homes in northern Mitrovica by force. ¶12. (SBU) COMMENT: We are grateful to our colleagues in the region ) and their posts ) for their interest; we are also grateful for the work of three entry-level officers (Belgrade's Demian Smith and Katie Gribble, and Pristina's AJ Rei-Perrine) for coming up with the idea and following through so well. END COMMENT. KAIDANOW