SOUTH AFRICA EXPRESSES "CONCERN" ABOUT ZIMBABWE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 PRETORIA 000957 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/15/2017 TAGS: PREL ECON SF ZI SUBJECT: SOUTH AFRICA EXPRESSES "CONCERN" ABOUT ZIMBABWE CRACKDOWN REF: HARARE 218 AND PREVIOUS Classified By: Political Counselor Raymond Brown. Reasons 1.4(b) and ( d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: The Government of Zimbabwe's March 11 violent attack on opposition leaders has revitalized the debate on Zimbabwe in South Africa and put pressure on the South African Government (SAG) to act. DepForMin Pahad's carefully worded March 13 statement, expressing concern about the arrests, has been strongly criticized by a number of leading civil society groups and opposition parties as "shamefully weak." While the SAG has been cautious in criticizing Mugabe in public, we are hearing reports, including from the ANC Secretary General, that Mbeki and other senior leaders are increasingly worried. The deteriorating economic situation, growing rifts in ZANU-PF, and increasing opposition activity could lead to an acceleration and intensification of South Africa's engagement -- especially if the SAG perceives there to be a looming refugee crisis. END SUMMARY. -------------- SAG's Carefully-Worded Public Statement -------------- ¶2. (U) Deputy ForMin Aziz Pahad expressed "concern" about reports of arrests, detention and "reported" assault of Zimbabwean opposition leaders, in a March 13 Department of Foreign Affairs press release. He also pointedly highlighted the SAG's concern about the "deteriorating political and economic situation." Pahad urged the Government of Zimbabwe "to ensure that the rule of law including respect for rights of all Zimbabweans and leaders of various political parties is respected." The statement also called for dialogue among the key parties to solve the country's current challenges and promised South African assistance to "ensure the objective of dialogue among all political parties is realized." (For full text of statement, see para 15.) -------------- Civil Society More Outspoken -------------- ¶3. (U) Spokesman for the Congress of South African Trade Unions (COSATU) Patrick Craven criticized Pahad's statement as "shamefully weak" and "disgraceful in the face of such massive attacks on democracy and human rights." COSATU Secretary General Zwelinzima Vavi said that the assaults in SIPDIS Harare showed that South Africa's "silent diplomacy" had not worked. COSATU pledged support for the planned April 3-4 strike by the Zimbabwe Congress of Trade Unions (ZCTU). ¶4. (C) Zackie Achmat and Nathan Geffen, two leaders of the leading HIV/AIDS advocacy group in the country, the Treatment Action Committee (TAC),wrote a letter to the Cape Times newspaper urging South African civil society to "act now with sustained conviction" to strengthen COSATU's campaign on Zimbabwe. Achmat and Geffen said that South African groups, including TAC, had done "too little" on Zimbabwe and said "we (government and civil society) are all responsible for the human rights abuses, hunger and tyranny over our neighbors." (COMMENT: TAC involvement in the Zimbabwe debate is potentially positive, as TAC is one of the most effective civil society organizations in the country. TAC deserves much of the credit for the shift in SAG policy on HIV/AIDS, particularly the provision of ARVs. It is a noteworthy departure for TAC, which previously has focused solely on HIV/AIDS-related issues. END COMMENT.) ¶5. (U) The South African Council of Churches (SACC) also criticized the SAG, arguing that the "silence of the South African Government is aggravating the situation. Our leaders must show they are committed to helping the people of Zimbabwe find rapid solutions to the many problems PRETORIA 00000957 002 OF 004 confronting them." Catholic Cardinal Wilfred Napier, speaking with Reverand Useni Sibanda from Zimbabwe's Christian Alliance, said publicly March 14 that he was concerned about the Zimbabwean government's lack of respect for human rights. ¶6. (C) During a private March 13 meeting with Durban CG and PolOffs, Napier said Zimbabwe is a sensitive issue since the church leadership in Harare does not want him to speak out. He said that the Zimbabwean Catholic bishops, except for Pius Ncube, continue to point to the so-called "Vision Document" as the solution to Zimbabwe's political challenges, a document Napier believes is too long-term and vague to address the current crisis. Napier also criticized South African policy in Zimbabwe as ineffectual. He recounted a "frustrating" meeting with Mbeki last year, where the President avoided their questions on Zimbabwe policy, instead providing a detailed and "belabored" description of his past efforts to mediate between the Mugabe and the MDC. By the time Mbeki finally finished, "you felt sorry for him" because Mbeki had convinced you he had tried everything. ¶7. (C) The MDC organized a protest march on the Zimbabwean Consulate in Johannesburg, which about 300 people attended. MDC Treasurer Roy Bennett told POLOFF March 15 that he was frustrated by poor organization and the ethnic divisions that emerged during the protest planning and event, with several Ndebeles holding up signs calling for an independent Matabeleland. (COMMENT: The Zimbabwe exile community in South Africa is unlikely to become a significant factor in policymaking. Many in the community are undocumented, and thus try to keep a low profile. The community is largely divided along ethnic lines and not well organized. END COMMENT.) -------------- SAG Worries Privately -------------- ¶8. (C) Despite the SAG's cautious public posture, we are receiving reports that key leaders in the government and ruling African National Congress (ANC) are increasingly worried about the situation in Zimbabwe. ANC Secretary-General Motlanthe met March 6 with Institute for SIPDIS Democracy in South Africa (IDASA) analyst and close Embassy contact Sydney Masamvu. Motlanthe told Masamvu that SAG and ANC leaders now agree that "getting Bob out" is the first step toward change in Zimbabwe. Motlanthe said that Mbeki believes it will be impossible for Zimbabwe to move forward as long as Mugabe remains in power. ¶9. (C) According to Masamvu, Motlanthe said that both the Mnangagwa and Mujuru ZANU-PF factions have visited Motlanthe in recent weeks to ask for South African help in easing Mugabe out of power. In late February, ZANU-PF Chairman John Nkomo also visited Motlanthe and quietly made the same request. (NOTE: Masamvu believes that the sympathies of Nkomo, a long-time Mugabe supporter, ultimately lie with the Mujuru camp. END NOTE.) South Africa's preferred scenario, Masamvu reported, is for Zimbabwe to hold elections in 2008 under a new constitution. ZANU-PF would put forward someone besides Mugabe, perhaps Simba Makoni, as their presidential candidate. ¶10. (SBU) President Mbeki met with President Mugabe March 6 in Accra on the margins of Ghana's 50th independence celebrations, Mbeki's spokesman confirmed. (NOTE: Our interlocutors in the SAG have been tight-lipped about the details of the meeting, but unconfirmed press reports suggest that Mbeki advised Mugabe not to extend his presidential term to 2010. END NOTE.) -------------- Press Reaction -------------- PRETORIA 00000957 003 OF 004 ¶11. (U) The crackdown on the MDC and civil society protesters has generated significant press coverage in South Africa, including a series of front page stories in the major newspapers. The photo of injured MDC leader Morgan Tsvangirai walking to court was widely reprinted. Following SIPDIS are a samples of some of the front page headlines: "Bloodied but Unbowed" (3/14/07 BusinessDay),"Tsvangirai held in protest mayhem" (3/12/07 BusinessDay),"Brain Scan for Morgan (3/15/07 Citizen),"MDC leader rejects medical care" (3/14/07 Pretoria News),"Zim cops beat MDC leader to a pulp" (3/13/07 Pretoria News),"Tsvangirai Battered and Bruised" (3/14/07 Star),"Tsvangirai brutally beaten after rally" (3/13/07 Star),"Go Hang: Mugabe tells West after opposition beating (3/16/07 Citizen),and "Zimbabwe: The Endgame?" (3/16/07 Mail & Guardian). -------------- Comment -------------- ¶12. (C) The Government of Zimbabwe's March 11 violent crackdown has reengerized the public debate in South Africa on Zimbabwe policy -- which had been largely dormant since Operation "Restore Order" in 2005 -- and put pressure on the SAG to act. The arrest and assault on MDC leader Tsvangirai enhanced his and the MDC's credibility in South Africa, almost overnight. We had often heard the criticism that Tsvangirai and other opposition leaders had not "sacrificed" SIPDIS enough for their cause, as the ANC did during the anti-apartheid struggle. Photos of a bruised and beaten Tsvangirai help defuse this (unfair) charge. SIPDIS ¶13. (C) We agree that Pahad's statement was overly cautious. However, the public call on the Government of Zimbabwe to respect human rights and the recognition of the "deteriorating political and economic situation" is more than the SAG has said in the past, especially from a government that has been reluctant to even hint at public criticism of Mugabe. The SAG continues to believe that strong public criticism will lead Mugabe to cut off all contact with them and undermine their leverage with Harare. ¶14. (C) South Africa's overall agenda remains the same. The SAG wants a peaceful transition to a new, "responsible" ZANU-PF government, ideally with some opposition participation, and a new constitution. Mugabe has stymied their efforts to put this plan in place, outplaying Mbeki at every turn. However, the deteriorating economic situation, growing rifts in ZANU-PF, and increasing opposition activity could lead to an acceleration and intensification of South Africa's engagement -- especially if the SAG perceives there to be a looming refugee crisis. -------------- Text of SAG Statement -------------- ¶15. (U) The text of the March 13 Department of Foreign Affairs statement: South African Government Statement on the current situation in Zimbabwe The South African Government has noted reports emanating from Zimbabwe regarding the current difficulties being experienced by the political leadership in the country including the arrests, detention and reported assault of some opposition leaders. "South Africa expresses its concerns about these reports as well as the deteriorating political and economic situation in Zimbabwe. In this regard, we are of the view that the current difficulties are symptomatic of the broader political and economic challenges facing Zimbabwe," said Deputy PRETORIA 00000957 004 OF 004 Minister Aziz Pahad. "Accordingly, South Africa has consistently maintained and moved from the premise that only dialogue among the main political protagonists can help bring about a lasting solution to the current political and economic challenges facing Zimbabwe. "In this context, South Africa will continue to monitor the situation closely and work with all parties in Zimbabwe in the political, economic, trade and social sectors to ensure the objective of dialogue among all political parties is realized," continued Deputy Minister Pahad. "Pursuant to this objective, South Africa urges the Zimbabwean Government to ensure that the rule of law including respect for rights of all Zimbabweans and leaders of various political parties is respected. "Similarly, we appeal to leaders of opposition political parties to work towards a climate that is conducive to finding a lasting solution to the current challenges faced by the people of Zimbabwe," concluded Deputy Minister Pahad. BOST