WMD FOREIGN CONSEQUENCE MANAGEMENT MOU

C O N F I D E N T I A L PRETORIA 000568 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR ISN/WMDT T. LOWE AND B. LEWIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/12/2017 TAGS: PREL PARM PTER KTIA SF SUBJECT: WMD FOREIGN CONSEQUENCE MANAGEMENT MOU REF: STATE 12882 Classified By: Political Counselor Raymond L. Brown. Reason 1.4(d). ¶1. (C) Despite South Africa's deep commitment to nonproliferation, we anticipate that the proposed bilateral MOU will be met with "principled" skepticism from the SAG. Pretoria has a strong preference for multilateral structures and instruments, especially in the area of proliferation. Long before our SAG interlocutors will be prepared to discuss the specifics of the draft text, we expect them to raise the following basic questions about the initiative: -- Why is this initiative necessary? Aren,t these concerns already addressed through existing treaties/regimes? -- If there are gaps in existing arrangements, shouldn,t these be handled through a new multilateral agreement? -- Which countries have you approached? Why those select countries? Isn't this discriminating against other countries in the South (the NAM, the G-77) by creating this hierarchy of capabilities? ¶2. (C) If we can provide good answers to these initial, ideological questions regarding the overall approach, we may be successful in drawing the SAG into an examination of the text. BOST