ZUMA CAMP DOMINATES ANC NEC ELECTION; MBEKI ALLIES

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 PRETORIA 004242

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SUBJECT: ZUMA CAMP DOMINATES ANC NEC ELECTION; MBEKI ALLIES
DEFEATED

REF: A. PRETORIA 4217


B. PRETORIA 4229

C. PRETORIA 4218

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1. (SBU) Supporters of newly-elected African National
Congress (ANC) President Jacob Zuma dominated the elections
for the party's National Executive Council (NEC),the ANC's
central policymaking body (see para 6 for full results).
Winnie Madikizela-Mandela received the most votes for the NEC
(2,845),a largely sentimental vote for the much-loved
Madikizela-Mandela, followed by Minister of Transport Jeff
Radebe (2,716) and Minister of Social Development Zola
Skweyiya (2,700). A number of key allies of President Mbeki,
including sixteen Cabinet members, lost their NEC positions.
However, despite earlier speculation that he might lose,
Mbeki ally and Finance Minister Trevor Manuel was reelected
to the Council (in position 57 of 80),as were prominent
businessman Cyril Ramaphosa (position 30),and presidential
policy advisor Joel Netshitenzhe (position 73). ANC
presidential candidate and recent Zuma supporter Tokyo
Sexwale garnered 2,198 votes, finishing in 10th position.


2. (SBU) Among the prominent ANC members and Mbeki allies
defeated for reelection to the NEC were:

-- DefMin Mosiuoa "Terror" Lekota, previously ANC Chairman
and the Mbeki camp candidate for ANC Secretary General, who
publicly attacked Jacob Zuma in the weeks leading up to the
ANC conference;

-- Deputy President Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka, the Mbeki camp's
candidate for ANC Treasurer General, whose husband led the
initial corruption investigation of Zuma;

-- Minister in the Presidency Essop Pahad and his brother
DepForMin Aziz Pahad, both long-time Mbeki confidantes;

-- Minister of Intelligence Ronnie Kasrils and Minister of
Public Enterprises Alex Erwin, two of three white ANC
Ministers (the other, former New National Party leader and
Minister of Environment and Tourism Marthinus van Schalkwyk,
was not nominated);

-- Minister of Public Works Thokozile Didiza (Mbeki camp
candidate for ANC Deputy Secretary General); Minister of
Provincial and Local Government Sydney Mufamadi; Minister of
Public Service and Administration Geraldine Fraser-Moleketi;
Trade and Industry Minister Mandisi Mpahlwa; and Deputy
Finance Minister Jabu Moleketi; and

-- Director General in the Presidency Frank Chikane; head of
the ANC Presidency Smuts Ngonyama; and businessman and key
Mbeki ally Saki Macozoma.


3. (SBU) Other developments of note:

-- ANC delegates reelected to the NEC ForMin Nkosazana
Dlamini-Zuma (position 35),despite her support for Mbeki
during the presidential campaign. DepForMin Sue van der
Merwe (position 54) and Department of Foreign Affairs (DFA)
Deputy Director General for Africa Multilateral Jesse Duarte
(position 6) were also elected.

-- Controversial Health Minister Manto Tshabalala-Msimang was
reelected (position 55),although she was outpolled by her
former deputy Nozizwe Madlala-Routledge, a first-time NEC
member (position 33). Mbeki fired Madlala-Routledge in
August 2007, ostensibly for traveling without his permission,
although most analysts believe her outspoken criticism of SAG
HIV/AIDS policies led to her dismissal.

-- Other ministers who retained their NEC positions include
Arts and Culture Minister Pallo Jordan (position 4),Housing
Minister Lindiwe Sisulu (position 7),Justice Minister
Bridgette Mabandla (position 9),Sports Minister Makhenkesi
QBridgette Mabandla (position 9),Sports Minister Makhenkesi
Stofile (position 12),Home Affairs Minister Nosiviwe
Mapisa-Nqakula (position 68),and Education Minister Naledi
Pandor (position 74).

-- Only one of the nine provincial premiers, KwaZulu-Natal
Premier Sbu Ndebele, was reelected to the NEC (position 75).


PRETORIA 00004242 002 OF 003



4. (U) This is the largest ANC NEC in history, with 86
members; it is also for the first time comprised of 50
percent women. (NOTE: The NEC comprises of the six ANC
leadership positions, elected December 18 (ref A),plus the
80 other members. END NOTE.) Both the expanded size and
mandatory gender parity were approved by conference delegates
earlier in the week. Due to the gender requirement, 43 of
the 69 women nominated to the NEC were elected, as opposed to
43 of the 96 men.


5. (SBU) COMMENT: With the NEC election, the Zuma camp has
largely completed its takeover of the ANC party structures
from Mbeki and his allies. It is encouraging that the ANC
delegates voted for FinMin Manuel and ANC policy advisor
Netshitenzhe, both impressive technocrats, despite their
pro-Mbeki leanings. While the ideological center of the NEC
has moved to left, we do not expect major changes in ANC or
SAG policy, at least in the short-term (refs B and C). The
current crop of SAG ministers, including those voted off the
NEC, will remain in cabinet and in control of their
portfolios until national parliamentary elections, currently
expected in March/April 2009. Furthermore, just because an
ANC member is not on the NEC does not mean s/he might not
emerge in a key position in the next administration. Should
Zuma succeed in winning the national presidency in 2009,
Zuma's aides have told us that they intend to widen the
separation between party and government and would pick at
least some members of Zuma's cabinet from outside the ANC
NEC. END COMMENT.


6. (U) Following are the results of the ANC National
Executive Committee elections, released December 20:


1. MANDELA, Winnie 2845 votes received

2. RADEBE, Jeff 2716

3. SKWEYIYA, Zola 2700

4. JORDAN, Pallo 2645

5. CRONIN, Jeremy 2519

6. DUARTE, Jessie 2448

7. SISULU, Lindiwe 2384

8. MTHEMBI-MAHANYELE, Sankie 2291

9. MABANDLA, Brigitte 2235

10. SEXWALE, Tokyo 2198

11. NZIMANDE, Blade 2157

12. STOFILE, Makhenkesi 2151

13. GIGABA, Malusi 2144

14. MAGASHULE, Ace 2121

15. MBALULA, Fikile 2116

16. MOOSA, Valli 2110

17. POTGIETER-GQUBULE, Febe 2091

18. CHABANE, Collins 2043

19. SISULU, Max 2041

20. RAMATLHODI, Ngoako 2034

21. YENGENI, Tony 2032

22. NYANDA, Siphiwe 2005

23. HANEKOM, Derek 1996

24. MKHIZE, Zweli 1976

25. EBRAHIM, Ebrahim 1964

26. CELE, Bheki 1950

27. MFEKETO, Nomaindia 1943

28. MASETLHA, Billy 1937

29. DLAMINI, Bathabile 1933

30. RAMAPHOSA, Cyril 1910

31. YENGENI, Lumka 1907

32. MOTSHEKGA, Angie 1906

33. MADLALA-ROUTLEDGE, Nozizwe 1905

34. GODONGWANA, Enoch 1891

35. DLAMINI ZUMA, Nkosazana 1885

36. SHABANGU, Susan 1775

37. MOKONYANE, Nomvula 1756

38. PULE, Dina 1730

39. BHENGU, Ruth 1729

40. PHAAHLA, Joe 1726

41. BOOI, Nyami 1709

42. MABUDAFHASI, Joyce 1698

43. ZULU, Lindiwe 1682

44. TOBIAS, Thandi 1675

45. LOVE, Janet 1670

46. SHOPE-MAFOLE, Lyndall 1642

47. DLODLO, Ayanda 1641

48. MTHETHWA, Nathi 1629

49. BROWN, Lynne 1623

50. KONDLO, Ncumisa 1619

51. MTINTSO, Thenjiwe 1616

52. XASA, Fikile 1615

PRETORIA 00004242 003 OF 003



53. MOTSHEKGA, Mathole 1613

54. VAN DER MERWE, Sue 1593

55. TSHABALALA-MSIMANG, Manto 1591

56. MOTSOALEDI, Aaron 1591

57. MANUEL, Trevor 1590

58. MTHEMBU, Jackson 1590

59. TOLASHE, Sisisi 1574

60. MABUZA, David 1572

61. SHICEKA, Sicelo 1532

62. CAPA LANGA, Zoleka 1506

63. MASHAMBA, Joyce 1497

64. MANANA, Sibongile 1496

65. JENKINS, Hazel 1496

66. MUFAMADI, Thaba 1496

67. LOBE, Charlotte 1494

68. MAPISA-NQAKULA, Nosiviwe 1490

69. MASUALLE, Phumulo 1484

70. MOLOI-MOROPA, Joyce 1470

71. MORULE, Playfair 1468

72. DUMA, Ndleleni 1447

73. NETSHITENZHE, Joel 1437

74. PANDOR, Naledi 1431

75. NDEBELE, Sibusiso 1427

76. MAGADZI, Dikeledi 1424

77. NTWANAMBI, Nosipho 1403

78. JOEMAT-PETTERSON, Tina 1369

79. MAYENDE-SIBIYA, Noluthando 1345

80. NKOANA-MASHABANE, Maite 1337
BOST