ZUMA CAMP DOMINATES ANC NEC ELECTION; MBEKI ALLIES

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 PRETORIA 004242 SIPDIS SIPDIS SENSITIVE DEPT FOR AF/S E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV KDEM SF SUBJECT: ZUMA CAMP DOMINATES ANC NEC ELECTION; MBEKI ALLIES DEFEATED REF: A. PRETORIA 4217 ¶B. PRETORIA 4229 ¶C. PRETORIA 4218 This message is Sensitive but Unclassified. Not for Internet distribution. ¶1. (SBU) Supporters of newly-elected African National Congress (ANC) President Jacob Zuma dominated the elections for the party's National Executive Council (NEC),the ANC's central policymaking body (see para 6 for full results). Winnie Madikizela-Mandela received the most votes for the NEC (2,845),a largely sentimental vote for the much-loved Madikizela-Mandela, followed by Minister of Transport Jeff Radebe (2,716) and Minister of Social Development Zola Skweyiya (2,700). A number of key allies of President Mbeki, including sixteen Cabinet members, lost their NEC positions. However, despite earlier speculation that he might lose, Mbeki ally and Finance Minister Trevor Manuel was reelected to the Council (in position 57 of 80),as were prominent businessman Cyril Ramaphosa (position 30),and presidential policy advisor Joel Netshitenzhe (position 73). ANC presidential candidate and recent Zuma supporter Tokyo Sexwale garnered 2,198 votes, finishing in 10th position. ¶2. (SBU) Among the prominent ANC members and Mbeki allies defeated for reelection to the NEC were: -- DefMin Mosiuoa "Terror" Lekota, previously ANC Chairman and the Mbeki camp candidate for ANC Secretary General, who publicly attacked Jacob Zuma in the weeks leading up to the ANC conference; -- Deputy President Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka, the Mbeki camp's candidate for ANC Treasurer General, whose husband led the initial corruption investigation of Zuma; -- Minister in the Presidency Essop Pahad and his brother DepForMin Aziz Pahad, both long-time Mbeki confidantes; -- Minister of Intelligence Ronnie Kasrils and Minister of Public Enterprises Alex Erwin, two of three white ANC Ministers (the other, former New National Party leader and Minister of Environment and Tourism Marthinus van Schalkwyk, was not nominated); -- Minister of Public Works Thokozile Didiza (Mbeki camp candidate for ANC Deputy Secretary General); Minister of Provincial and Local Government Sydney Mufamadi; Minister of Public Service and Administration Geraldine Fraser-Moleketi; Trade and Industry Minister Mandisi Mpahlwa; and Deputy Finance Minister Jabu Moleketi; and -- Director General in the Presidency Frank Chikane; head of the ANC Presidency Smuts Ngonyama; and businessman and key Mbeki ally Saki Macozoma. ¶3. (SBU) Other developments of note: -- ANC delegates reelected to the NEC ForMin Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma (position 35),despite her support for Mbeki during the presidential campaign. DepForMin Sue van der Merwe (position 54) and Department of Foreign Affairs (DFA) Deputy Director General for Africa Multilateral Jesse Duarte (position 6) were also elected. -- Controversial Health Minister Manto Tshabalala-Msimang was reelected (position 55),although she was outpolled by her former deputy Nozizwe Madlala-Routledge, a first-time NEC member (position 33). Mbeki fired Madlala-Routledge in August 2007, ostensibly for traveling without his permission, although most analysts believe her outspoken criticism of SAG HIV/AIDS policies led to her dismissal. -- Other ministers who retained their NEC positions include Arts and Culture Minister Pallo Jordan (position 4),Housing Minister Lindiwe Sisulu (position 7),Justice Minister Bridgette Mabandla (position 9),Sports Minister Makhenkesi QBridgette Mabandla (position 9),Sports Minister Makhenkesi Stofile (position 12),Home Affairs Minister Nosiviwe Mapisa-Nqakula (position 68),and Education Minister Naledi Pandor (position 74). -- Only one of the nine provincial premiers, KwaZulu-Natal Premier Sbu Ndebele, was reelected to the NEC (position 75). PRETORIA 00004242 002 OF 003 ¶4. (U) This is the largest ANC NEC in history, with 86 members; it is also for the first time comprised of 50 percent women. (NOTE: The NEC comprises of the six ANC leadership positions, elected December 18 (ref A),plus the 80 other members. END NOTE.) Both the expanded size and mandatory gender parity were approved by conference delegates earlier in the week. Due to the gender requirement, 43 of the 69 women nominated to the NEC were elected, as opposed to 43 of the 96 men. ¶5. (SBU) COMMENT: With the NEC election, the Zuma camp has largely completed its takeover of the ANC party structures from Mbeki and his allies. It is encouraging that the ANC delegates voted for FinMin Manuel and ANC policy advisor Netshitenzhe, both impressive technocrats, despite their pro-Mbeki leanings. While the ideological center of the NEC has moved to left, we do not expect major changes in ANC or SAG policy, at least in the short-term (refs B and C). The current crop of SAG ministers, including those voted off the NEC, will remain in cabinet and in control of their portfolios until national parliamentary elections, currently expected in March/April 2009. Furthermore, just because an ANC member is not on the NEC does not mean s/he might not emerge in a key position in the next administration. Should Zuma succeed in winning the national presidency in 2009, Zuma's aides have told us that they intend to widen the separation between party and government and would pick at least some members of Zuma's cabinet from outside the ANC NEC. END COMMENT. ¶6. (U) Following are the results of the ANC National Executive Committee elections, released December 20: ¶1. MANDELA, Winnie 2845 votes received ¶2. RADEBE, Jeff 2716 ¶3. SKWEYIYA, Zola 2700 ¶4. JORDAN, Pallo 2645 ¶5. CRONIN, Jeremy 2519 ¶6. DUARTE, Jessie 2448 ¶7. SISULU, Lindiwe 2384 ¶8. MTHEMBI-MAHANYELE, Sankie 2291 ¶9. MABANDLA, Brigitte 2235 ¶10. SEXWALE, Tokyo 2198 ¶11. NZIMANDE, Blade 2157 ¶12. STOFILE, Makhenkesi 2151 ¶13. GIGABA, Malusi 2144 ¶14. MAGASHULE, Ace 2121 ¶15. MBALULA, Fikile 2116 ¶16. MOOSA, Valli 2110 ¶17. POTGIETER-GQUBULE, Febe 2091 ¶18. CHABANE, Collins 2043 ¶19. SISULU, Max 2041 ¶20. RAMATLHODI, Ngoako 2034 ¶21. YENGENI, Tony 2032 ¶22. NYANDA, Siphiwe 2005 ¶23. HANEKOM, Derek 1996 ¶24. MKHIZE, Zweli 1976 ¶25. EBRAHIM, Ebrahim 1964 ¶26. CELE, Bheki 1950 ¶27. MFEKETO, Nomaindia 1943 ¶28. MASETLHA, Billy 1937 ¶29. DLAMINI, Bathabile 1933 ¶30. RAMAPHOSA, Cyril 1910 ¶31. YENGENI, Lumka 1907 ¶32. MOTSHEKGA, Angie 1906 ¶33. MADLALA-ROUTLEDGE, Nozizwe 1905 ¶34. GODONGWANA, Enoch 1891 ¶35. DLAMINI ZUMA, Nkosazana 1885 ¶36. SHABANGU, Susan 1775 ¶37. MOKONYANE, Nomvula 1756 ¶38. PULE, Dina 1730 ¶39. BHENGU, Ruth 1729 ¶40. PHAAHLA, Joe 1726 ¶41. BOOI, Nyami 1709 ¶42. MABUDAFHASI, Joyce 1698 ¶43. ZULU, Lindiwe 1682 ¶44. TOBIAS, Thandi 1675 ¶45. LOVE, Janet 1670 ¶46. SHOPE-MAFOLE, Lyndall 1642 ¶47. DLODLO, Ayanda 1641 ¶48. MTHETHWA, Nathi 1629 ¶49. BROWN, Lynne 1623 ¶50. KONDLO, Ncumisa 1619 ¶51. MTINTSO, Thenjiwe 1616 ¶52. XASA, Fikile 1615 PRETORIA 00004242 003 OF 003 ¶53. MOTSHEKGA, Mathole 1613 ¶54. VAN DER MERWE, Sue 1593 ¶55. TSHABALALA-MSIMANG, Manto 1591 ¶56. MOTSOALEDI, Aaron 1591 ¶57. MANUEL, Trevor 1590 ¶58. MTHEMBU, Jackson 1590 ¶59. TOLASHE, Sisisi 1574 ¶60. MABUZA, David 1572 ¶61. SHICEKA, Sicelo 1532 ¶62. CAPA LANGA, Zoleka 1506 ¶63. MASHAMBA, Joyce 1497 ¶64. MANANA, Sibongile 1496 ¶65. JENKINS, Hazel 1496 ¶66. MUFAMADI, Thaba 1496 ¶67. LOBE, Charlotte 1494 ¶68. MAPISA-NQAKULA, Nosiviwe 1490 ¶69. MASUALLE, Phumulo 1484 ¶70. MOLOI-MOROPA, Joyce 1470 ¶71. MORULE, Playfair 1468 ¶72. DUMA, Ndleleni 1447 ¶73. NETSHITENZHE, Joel 1437 ¶74. PANDOR, Naledi 1431 ¶75. NDEBELE, Sibusiso 1427 ¶76. MAGADZI, Dikeledi 1424 ¶77. NTWANAMBI, Nosipho 1403 ¶78. JOEMAT-PETTERSON, Tina 1369 ¶79. MAYENDE-SIBIYA, Noluthando 1345 ¶80. NKOANA-MASHABANE, Maite 1337 BOST