MBEKI CAMP UPBEAT

C O N F I D E N T I A L PRETORIA 004196 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/12/2017 TAGS: PGOV KDEM SF SUBJECT: MBEKI CAMP UPBEAT Classified By: Acting Political Counselor Catherine E. Kay. Reasons 1. 4(b) and (d). ¶1. (C) According to Mbeki camp lobbyists, Mbeki has succeeded in changing the minds of enough delegates to win the ANC Presidency for a third term. On 12 December, PolAsst received a text message on his phone, allegedly from the national coordinator of the Mbeki lobby (Andile Nkuhlu), stating, "We can sleep peacefully now. The work is complete. People will be shocked in Limpopo." ¶2. (C) The following national update was provided to Mbeki loyalists during at an 11 December strategy meeting in Durban: -- The Mbeki camp said they have turned things around and are now leading nationwide by 424 votes; -- Mbeki expects increased support in Western Cape. (NOTE: The ANC's Cape Metro Secretary, Mbulelo Ncedane, told PolAsst on 12 December that Mbeki's turn-around campaign has managed to secure an additional 38 votes, giving Mbeki 180 votes out of a possible 219 in the province. END NOTE) -- Mbeki expects increased support in Eastern Cape, particularly in the pro-Zuma OR Tambo region where the Mbeki camp believes they now have half of the delegates. (NOTE: Ncedane also said that Mbeki's camp has "overfilled the pan" in Eastern Cape, securing an additional 40 delegates, giving Mbeki a total of 560 votes out of a possible 906. END NOTE); -- In KwaZulu-Natal, the Mbeki camp believes they have managed to secure 111 solid votes, including 4 Provincial Executive Committee members (a substantial increase from the nine votes Mbeki received at the Provincial General Council), almost meeting their target of 120. They also believe that an additional 53 voting delegates are still potentially winnable in the province; -- In Northern Cape, the Mbeki camp challenged the results of the Provincial General Council and are expecting increased support; -- In Free State, the Mbeki camp is expecting increased support after an out-of-court settlement ordered three regions to elect new delegates (NOTE: According to press reports, between 24 and 40 delegates out of 363 total will be reselected. END NOTE) -- The Mbeki-camp is expecting no change in Mpumalanga or North West. -- There was no news given regarding Limpopo or Gauteng, except that Mbeki has sent his strongest lobbyists, including ForMin Dlamini-Zuma, to work on Gauteng delegates. -- As for the National Executive Committee, the Mbeki camp believes it has 42 of 66 members on its side. ¶3. (C) COMMENT: With delegates already arriving in Polokwane, no one really knows who has the edge. Given that the vote will be by secret ballot, the fact is that delegates can say what they wish to either camp. While Mbeki's camp has certainly managed to lure some Zuma supporters to their side (by whatever means),their own numbers do not guarantee an Mbeki victory. At the conclusion of the nominations process, Zuma won 2,151 of the total 3,658 votes cast. For Mbeki now to have a 424-vote lead, the Mbeki camp must have converted a significant percentage of the total 4,075 voting delegates in just two weeks' time. Further, the Mbeki camp believes it has made the biggest strides in Zuma-stronghold KwaZulu-Natal, where delegates have been instructed to accept money, ask for more, and still vote for Zuma. Finally, Zuma camp sources continue to assert that their own vote count shows Zuma with a comfortable lead. END COMMENT. BOST