TOKYO SEXWALE JOINS ZUMA'S CAMP

C O N F I D E N T I A L PRETORIA 004178 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/12/2017 TAGS: PGOV PINR KDEM SF SUBJECT: TOKYO SEXWALE JOINS ZUMA'S CAMP Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission Don Teitelbaum. Reasons 1.4(b) and (d). ¶1. (U) After two weeks in the U.S., UK, and India, Zuma has returned to South Africa more buoyant and aggressive than ever. During an international human rights day lecture at the University of Witwatersrand on 10 December, Zuma made numerous thinly veiled attacks against Mbeki's leadership style and perceived shortcomings, including: -- "History is dotted with the legacy of tyrants who abused the rights of citizens in order to usurp or hold on to power;" -- "We cannot wish away the fact that so many of us live in fear of violent crime;" and -- "Our responses to HIV/AIDS and crime, which undermine the basic rights to life and security, should be treated as national emergencies." During a pro-Zuma rally the following day in Eastern Cape, Zuma also warned delegates that they would be subverting democracy if they let themselves be bribed or succumb to threats and intimidation. ¶2. (SBU) Overshadowing Zuma's fiery comments, however, has been the public support of former rival Tokyo Sexwale, who appeared on stage with Zuma at the university lecture and who also accompanied him to Eastern Cape. Sexwale and Zuma publicly embraced for the first time at the university lecture, and Sexwale even sang Zuma's trademark "Umshini Wami" (Bring me my machine gun) song. In Eastern Cape, Sexwale thanked the ANC Youth League for standing by Zuma during Zuma's trying times, but had harsh words for President Mbeki, pointing out to the crowd that there was a time to lead and a time to follow and that the women's struggle should not be used for personal political purposes. More pointedly, Sexwale told delegates to ask difficult questions about the health of the ANC and who is to blame. According to press reports, he also has withdrawn his name from the race for ANC Chairperson. (COMMENT: Presumably, Sexwale has withdrawn his name to allow the Zuma camp to nominate Speaker of Parliament Baleka Mbete from the floor, a move that would answer Zuma's critics who highlight the fact that Zuma's camp only nominated one woman (Mbete for Deputy Secretary General) for the top six positions. END COMMENT) ¶3. (C) COMMENT: Though he has stopped short of a formal public endorsement, the fact that Sexwale has publicly joined the Zuma campaign after weeks of fence-sitting speaks volumes. Despite rampant speculation, only a small handful of ANC insiders have access to enough information about current delegate preferences to be able to make informed predictions about the outcome in Polokwane. Most of these insiders have already declared their loyalty to either Zuma or Mbeki and are unable to change positions now, making Sexwale a bellwether. With his business interests and personal ambitions on the line, he would not have made this decision unless he personally was confident of a Zuma victory at Polokwane. END COMMENT. BOST