SOUTH AFRICA ECONOMIC NEWS WEEKLY NEWSLETTER DECEMBER 07,

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 PRETORIA 004155 SIPDIS DEPT FOR AF/S/MTABLER-STONE; AF/EPS; EB/IFD/OMA USDOC FOR 4510/ITA/MAC/AME/OA/DIEMOND TREASURY FOR TRINA RAND USTR FOR COLEMAN SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: ECON EFIN EINV ETRD EMIN EPET ENRG BEXP KTDB SENV PGOV, SF SUBJECT: SOUTH AFRICA ECONOMIC NEWS WEEKLY NEWSLETTER DECEMBER 07, 2007 ISSUE PRETORIA 00004155 001.2 OF 004 ¶1. (U) Summary. This is Volume 7, issue 49 of U.S. Embassy Pretoria's South Africa Economic News Weekly Newsletter. Topics of this week's newsletter are: - Trade Deficit Widens - Manufacturing Activity Slips - Vehicle Sales Down - Business Confidence Dips Further - US Trade With Sub-Saharan Africa Increase - SA Leads World on Life Cover - The CAA Grounds Nationwide Airline - CAA Restructuring Announced - SA Companies Submit Emissions Reports - Mineworkers Stage Safety Strike as Fatalities Top Previous Year's End Summary. -------------- Trade Deficit Widens -------------- ¶2. (U) According to South African Revenue Service (SARS) data, South Africa's trade deficit widened to a record R14.7 billion ($2.2 billion) in November 2007. Exports increased by 4.3% month-on-month (m/m) to R41.5 billion ($6.2 billion) in November 2007, while imports surged 27.4% m/m to a record R56.3 billion ($8.4 billion). Oil imports doubled to R13.2 billion ($2 billion),more than a fifth of the total imports, partly because of rising global crude prices but also due to disruptions to local production and increased purchases by refineries ahead of the year-end. SARS officials said the surge in imports also reflected rising demand for capital goods sparked by the government's R482 billion ($72 billion) infrastructure spending plan and preparations to host the FIFA Soccer World Cup in 2010. The cumulative trade deficit widened from R55.3 billion ($8.3 billion) in the first 10 months of 2006 to R70.1 billion ($10.5 billion) for the same period in 2007. It means the current account deficit would exceed last year's ratio of 6.5% of gross domestic product (GDP),which was its largest in more than three decades. National Treasury (NT) officials have acknowledged that South Africa would have to live with a large current account deficit for several years to come, largely due to its spending program, which in the end will expand the economy's productive capacity. NT has predicted that the current account deficit will widen to 7.7% of GDP in 2009 and 7.8% in 2010, both near 60-year peaks. Although the shortfall is covered by capital inflows, it makes the South African economy vulnerable to any substantial shift in global sentiment against emerging markets and high-yield assets. South Africa has the second largest current account deficit as a percent of GDP among the 25 emerging market economies. (Business Day, December 3, 2007) -------------- Manufacturing Activity Slips -------------- ¶3. (U) The Investec Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) which measures underlying manufacturing activity, dropped from 56.1 points in September to 54.3 points in October. A sharp fall in new sales orders, a slowdown in activity and a decline in expected business conditions conspired to put pressure on the sector, which accounts for more than 16% of the economy. The PMI has been weighed down in recent months by higher interest rates as the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) strives to bring inflation under control. Investec Asset Management head Andre Roux said the manufacturing sector is continuing to adjust to pressure from higher interest rates, a Qcontinuing to adjust to pressure from higher interest rates, a slower global economy and strength in the rand. A stronger rand tends to be bad for manufacturers as it erodes the competitiveness of South Africa's exports while making imports less expensive, encouraging substitution for locally produced goods. Figures last week showed that manufacturing production decreased by 0.1% in the second quarter of 2007 and by 2.5% in the third quarter of 2007, which technically puts the sector in a recession for the first time since 2003. (Business Day, December 4, 2007) -------------- Vehicle Sales Down -------------- ¶4. (U) According to the National Association of Automobile Manufacturers of South Africa (NAAMSA),total new vehicle sales PRETORIA 00004155 002.2 OF 004 declined by 13.8% year-on-year (y/y) in November 2007. The fall in vehicle sales was particularly noticeable in the new passenger vehicle segment of the market where sales decreased by 15.7% y/y in November. According to NAAMSA the lagged impact of past interest rate hikes, record high household debt levels, inflation and a deterioration in consumer sentiment contributed to the contraction in the volume of passenger vehicles sold over the past year. During the January to November 2007 period, passenger vehicle sales were 9.2% lower than during the corresponding period last year. However, sales of light commercial vehicles were 3.6% higher than during the same period last year, while medium and heavy commercial vehicle sales increased by 12%. Heavy commercial vehicle sales growth remained relatively strong during 2007, but there was a noticeable slowdown in medium commercial vehicle sales growth. Economists said the continued contraction in vehicle sales, particularly passenger vehicle sales is an indication of the effect of interest rate hikes and inflationary pressures on household budgets, reducing the consumer's ability to spend on interest rate sensitive items such as motor vehicles. (ABSA Newsletter, November 4, 2007) -------------- Business Confidence Dips Further -------------- ¶5. (U) The South African Chamber of Commerce and Industry (SACCI) said its business confidence index (BCI) decreased from 96.9 points in October to 95.8 in November, the lowest since February 2004. Five of the 13 sub-indices of the BCI turned positive in November, while eight sub-indices were negative. SACCI noted that economic growth in prominent sectors, that have been pushing growth for the last 12 months, slowed by a half to two percentage points year-on-year. The October inflation data also indicate that consumer inflation is accelerating and while producer inflation slowed down somewhat. Producer inflation is still 1.5% points higher than consumer inflation. "This could lead to greater price instability if not managed prudently by business, policy makers and other role players," the SACCI said. Of great concern to the SACCI are the U.S. dollar prices of crude oil and the increasing rates of food and non-food agricultural products, while higher real financing costs are particularly detrimental to small and medium-size business, especially in a slowing economy. However, the higher real interest rates provide an incentive for attracting capital to South Africa that support the rand and that finances the huge current account deficit. SACCI believes that notwithstanding tougher business conditions, South African business has shown resilience in the past and when sound and consistent economic policy decisions lead the way, business confidence will follow. (Business Day, December 5, 2007) -------------- US Trade With Sub-Saharan Africa Increase -------------- ¶6. (U) U.S. total trade with Sub-Saharan Africa (SAA) increased by 8% year-on-year (y/y) in the first 9 months of 2007, as both exports and imports grew. U.S. exports to SAA increased by 24% to $10.6 Qand imports grew. U.S. exports to SAA increased by 24% to $10.6 billion in the first 9 months of 2007, driven by growth in vehicles and parts, wheat, non-crude oil, medical equipment and platforms for offshore oil drilling. U.S. imports from SAA increased by 4% y/y to $47.6 billion in the first 9 months of 2007, mainly driven by oil and platinum imports. U.S. exports to South Africa rose by 27% while U.S. imports from South Africa increased by 22%, driven mainly by increased imports in platinum, diamonds, and ferroalloys. Total AGOA imports amounted to $35.9 billion, 5% more than in the first nine months of 2006. Petroleum products accounted 93% of overall AGOA imports and the top five AGOA beneficiary countries included Nigeria, Angola, South Africa, Chad, and Republic of Congo. Once again, South Africa was the largest beneficiary of non-oil AGOA exports to the U.S. (U.S. Department of Commerce, November 30, 2007) -------------- SA Leads World on Life Cover -------------- 7.(U) Life Offices Association (LOA) Gerhard Joubert said South Africa's extensive antiretroviral therapy (ART) programs, which are now treating more than 300,000 HIV-positive people, are making it PRETORIA 00004155 003.2 OF 004 possible for local life insurers to introduce more affordable and comprehensive life and disability cover. Sanlam, Old Mutual and Metropolitan, three of South Africa's largest life insurance companies, were the first to introduce life insurance policies for HIV-positive people as early as 2001. AllLife and AltRisk, two smaller life insurance companies, subsequently pioneered more affordable life insurance for people living with HIV. Sanlam is now the first large life insurance company to announce new, affordable and flexible life and disability cover for HIV-positive people. Joubert said the previous lack of reliable data relating to the HIV/AIDS survival rate and the way the disease responds to treatment had encouraged insurers to use conservative assumptions when pricing products for the HIV-positive, causing the products to be expensive. Improvements in treatment over the past decade have increased survival rates and have caused HIV to become a chronic treatable disease. The new products require policyholders to be on ART, monitored through a properly structured treatment program. The LOA's HIV testing protocol, which regulates testing and counseling for insurance purposes, was also hailed as one of the best in the world. (Business Times, December 2, 2007) -------------- The CAA Grounds Nationwide Airline -------------- 8.(U) The South African Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) suspended its approval of Nationwide Airlines' aircraft maintenance organization (AMO) on November 30. The CAA also suspended the airworthiness certificates of Nationwide's fleet of 16 Boeing aircraft. In a cascading series of events, the CAA recalled all of the non-Nationwide aircraft that had been serviced by the Nationwide AMO and the International Air Transport Authority (IATA) suspended Nationwide from its interchangeable ticket agreement. The combination of these events led to the cancellation of 60 Nationwide flights and the stranding of 6,000 passengers just as most schools closed for the holidays on November 30. Many passengers were unable to purchase the more expensive, regular-priced tickets on competing airlines. The CAA's decision was related to an accident in which an engine fell off of a Nationwide Boeing 737-200 at the Cape Town International Airport on November 7. The CAA said it had raised 21 safety concerns with Nationwide, including the fact that the airline was using possible pirate parts that did not comply with safety regulations. The local press claims that the CAA raised its concerns about Nationwide's inability to trace whether some of its bolts were genuine parts three months ago (i.e., before the November 7 incident). (Pretoria News, December 1, 2007 and Business Day, December 4, 2007) -------------- CAA Restructuring Announced -------------- 9.(U) The South African Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) announced on December 4 that CEO Zakes Myeza had resigned to allow the CAA to unify the positions of CEO and Commissioner for Civil Aviation. The announcement explained that Minister of Transport Jeff Radebe had issued a policy directive to unify the two positions in response to Qissued a policy directive to unify the two positions in response to concerns raised by two international audits conducted on the CAA. CAA Spokesperson Phindi Gwebu said that the two international audits had been conducted by ICAO and the FAA. She also said Myeza's resignation had "nothing to do with" the November 30 action taken against Nationwide Airlines. Radebe spokesperson Collen Msibi also said that the Nationwide action and the CAA restructuring were separate issues and that it was Myeza's decision to resign. The new CEO/Commissioner has not been announced, but Embassy sources report that the SAG would like South African Airways' Manager of Operations to occupy this position. In another management shake-up, CAA Board Member and Auditor General Head of Operations and Transaction Management Bridget Mohlala was suspended on December 3 after being found guilty of several financial offences. (Pretoria News, Business Day, and Die Burger, December 5, 2007 and News 24, December 4, 2007) -------------- SA Companies Submit Emissions Reports -------------- ¶10. (U) The Carbon Disclosure Project (CDP) presented a report on PRETORIA 00004155 004.2 OF 004 emissions by South Africa's top 40 JSE-listed companies. The companies had to report on climate change risks as well as the accounting and management of green house gas emissions. The report fingered state electricity supplier ESKOM as the leading emitter, with emissions 2.8 times higher than the next highest among the 40 companies. SASOL, BHP Billiton, Anglo American and Sappi were the other companies identified as large emitters. Minister of Environmental Affairs and Tourism Marthinus Van Schalkwyk has urged CEOs and Board Chairmen to rise to the new challenges and opportunities and to move away from the "business as usual" approach, which he regarded as a high-risk approach. The CDP will continue with the rating on an annual basis and hopes to include the top 100 JSE-listed companies in the near future. (Business Day, November 23, 2007) -------------- -------------- Mineworkers Stage Safety Strike as Fatalities Top Previous Year's -------------- -------------- ¶11. (U) Some 240,000 members of South Africa's biggest union, the National Union of Mineworkers (NUM),staged a one-day strike and march against deteriorating safety conditions on December 4. The Chamber of Mines said the chamber and the NUM had agreed on the protest action because the two needed to cooperate in tackling safety issues. The number of deaths in South African mines this year, at 201 thus far, has already topped last years' year-end figure of 199. This has galvanized concerns about safety in the aftermath of the recent incident of 3,200 workers trapped, but ultimately rescued, at Harmony's Elandsrand mine. Mining companies reported substantial output losses due to the work stoppage. Platinum producer Anglo Platinum said the impact of the one-day strike was expected to be a loss of about 9,000 ounces of production as some mines experienced an almost 100 percent stay-away. South Africa's top gold producer AngloGold Ashanti said it experienced substantial mine worker stay-aways, to the extent that none of its South African operations were producing gold on December 4. (Business Day, Mining Weekly, 102.7 Classic FM news, December 4-5, 2007) BOST