TSVANGIRAI FRUSTRATED BY LACK OF PROGRESS IN SADC

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PRETORIA 004109 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR AF C. THOMPSON, AF/S S. HILL NSC FOR B. LEO E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/03/2017 TAGS: PREL KDEM PHUM SF ZI SUBJECT: TSVANGIRAI FRUSTRATED BY LACK OF PROGRESS IN SADC TALKS REF: HARARE 1028 Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission Don Teitelbaum. Reasons 1.4(b) and (d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY. The Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) is increasingly frustrated by the slow pace of the SADC-sponsored Zimbabwe talks, MDC President Morgan Tsvangirai told visiting U.S. Ambassador to Zimbabwe. The SIPDIS MDC has made significant concessions, but received nothing in return from ZANU-PF. Tsvangirai wrote to South African President Mbeki threatening to pull out of the SADC talks unless ZANU-PF takes "concrete" steps to demonstrate their goodwill, such as ending the political violence and allowing the MDC to hold rallies around the country. Tsvangirai also said he understood the importance of MDC unity, and would be reaching out to the other MDC faction in the coming week with the goal of reuniting the party. The MDC threat to pull out of the SADC process puts the South Africans in an awkward spot, since they need the opposition to participate in the 2008 elections to legitimize the SADC facilitation process. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (C) At a December 01 lunch in Johannesburg, Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) President Morgan Tsvangirai discussed recent political developments with newly-accredited U.S. Ambassador to Zimbabwe James McGee. MDC Treasurer Roy Bennett and U.S.-based MDC advisor Melinda Farris joined the lunch, as well as PolCounselor and PolOff (notetaker). Tsvangirai warmly greeted Ambassador McGee and said he looked SIPDIS forward to close and frequent communication. This was the first meeting between Ambassador and Tsvangirai, who was in Johannesburg for a week-long MDC strategic retreat. -------------- Disillusioned by SADC Talks -------------- ¶3. (C) Striking a much more pessimistic tone since his last meeting with U.S. officials on November 15 (ref A), Tsvangirai expressed his growing frustration with the South SIPDIS African-led SADC facilitation talks. The MDC has consistently shown its good faith, including agreeing to controversial Amendment 18, but ZANU-PF has not made any "reciprocal" concessions. Most recently, the two parties presented the South Africans with their respective written outlines for a political agreement (copies given to Ambassador). According to Tsvangirai, the ZANU-PF paper was not serious. It read like an ideological rant, with no effort to address the core negotiating issues. ¶4. (C) Following receipt of the ZANU-PF paper, Tsvangirai wrote to President Mbeki to say that the MDC would be forced to suspend their participation in the SADC talks unless ZANU-PF provided some "concrete sign" of their commitment to the facilitation process. Tsvangirai asked for a response by December 4, prior to the December 5 MDC executive meeting in Harare. Asked by Ambassador what the MDC would consider a positive sign from ZANU-PF, Tsvangirai mentioned as examples: -- ending the state-sponsored violence against MDC officials; -- allowing the MDC to hold rallies in all parts of the country; -- permitting truly independent newspapers to be printed; and -- agreeing to the distribution of food based on need, not political affiliation. Tsvangirai also noted the MDC's concerns with the ongoing SIPDIS voter registration (which is only taking place in ZANU-PF strongholds) and the lack of transparency and fairness in the delimitation process. ¶5. (C) Tsvangirai met directly with President Mbeki two weeks ago to outline his concerns about the SADC process, and again Qago to outline his concerns about the SADC process, and again with South African lead negotiator Minister for Local and Provincial Government Sydney Mufamadi on December 1st. Mufamadi agreed with many of Tsvangirai's complaints, and assured Tsvangirai that President Mbeki raised these same points during his meeting with President Mugabe in Harare on November 22 (although Mufamadi provided no details of Mugabe's response). Mufamadi also agreed with Tsvangirai that it would be difficult to hold free and fair elections in March 2008, given the number of reforms that had to be implemented before then. -------------- Understand Challenge of Party Financing PRETORIA 00004109 002 OF 002 -------------- ¶6. (C) Despite the MDC's ongoing concerns about the prospects for free and fair elections, Treasurer Bennett said the party has put together a comprehensive plan for contesting and financing the elections. Without specifying a specific dollar amount (Note: Bennett has previously floated a figure of USD 10 million (ref B)),Bennett and Tsvangirai suggested several general areas that required financial support: the presidential campaign, party activities (including voter education and mobilization),logistics, and fraud detection and prevention programs. Bennett suggested that the Institute for a Democratic Alternative for Zimbabwe (IDAZIM), a new South Africa-based non-governmental organization (septel),may be useful vehicle for funding MDC-coordinated electoral programs. -------------- Recognize Importance of MDC Unity -------------- ¶7. (C) On the internal MDC divisions, Tsvangirai said he recognized the importance of the MDC presenting a unified front. Tsvangirai's goal is for the MDC to present a unified slate of candidates at all levels, from President to Member of Parliament. He does not want a coalition, but rather a unified party leading up to the elections. Over the next week, Tsvangirai plans to reach out to MDC faction leader Arthur Mutambara and others to bring them back in the fold. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶8. (C) The MDC's threat to pull out of the SADC facilitation puts the South Africans in an awkward spot. Mbeki needs the MDC to participate in the 2008 elections -- even if the SAG wants/expects them to lose -- to pursue their agenda of "normalizing" the political and economic situation in Zimbabwe. The South Africans continue to believe that legitimizing a ZANU-PF government through elections where the results are "uncontested" will accelerate Mugabe's retirement and put in place a "reformed" ZANU-PF regime -- which Post believes has always been Mbeki's ultimate endgame in Zimbabwe. ¶9. (C) Mbeki also wants to show progress in Zimbabwe prior to the December 8-9 EU summit in Lisbon, and perhaps even more importantly, before the December 16-20 ANC presidential elections. A Zimbabwe "victory" might have some limited positive political benefit for Mbeki, but a breakdown of the SADC facilitation would provide ammunition to rival Jacob Zuma in a very tight race. As we suggested when the SADC process began some eight months ago (ref C),Mugabe has skillfully outplayed Mbeki over the years. With Mbeki in trouble politically at home, Mugabe may be waiting to see how the ANC elections play out before making his next move. ¶10. (U) This cable has been cleared by Ambassador McGee. BOST