PIKOLI COMMISSION RESULTS NOT EXPECTED SOON

C O N F I D E N T I A L PRETORIA 003929 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/08/2017 TAGS: PGOV KJUS SF SUBJECT: PIKOLI COMMISSION RESULTS NOT EXPECTED SOON REF: PRETORIA 3603 Classified By: Political Counselor Raymond Brown. Reasons 1.4(b) and ( d). ¶1. (U) The Ministry of Justice on 18 October submitted the government's official explanation as to why the National Director of Public Prosecutions Vusi Pikoli was suspended, but it is not expected to be made public. On 07 November, the former Speaker of Parliament Frene Ginwala, who is in charge of the Pikoli Commission (reftel),said she is still waiting for Pikoli's submission. After Ginwala has had an opportunity to study both reports, she will then determine the process of the investigation, according to press statements. She also has appointed advocate Ishmael Semenya and prominent lawyer Dines Gihwala to assist her. ¶2. (C) However, a German diplomat told POLOFF on 31 October that not only has Pikoli's rebuttal been finalized, it has been leaked "through round-about channels" to the German Embassy in Pretoria. The diplomat had not yet read it, but said the dossier was "enormous compared to the government's 47-page document." He believes that someone in the NPA is selectively leaking it. Business Day political editor Karima Brown suspects that Pikoli himself may be behind the leak, using his defense as protection later on down the road. She also argued that Pikoli "has an ace or two up his sleeve." For example, Brown said that Pikoli was present during the questioning of former South African Ambassador to France, Barbara Masekela, about an alleged 1998 meeting between President Mbeki and French arms company, Thint (Zuma's alleged corrupter). Mbeki has always said he cannot remember if he met with Thint while on the official visit to France. ¶3. (C) The Pikoli Commission, as other ANC-appointed commissions, is unlikely to be swift. The DA abandoned its threat to legally challenge Ginwala's appointment on 18 October. DA Leader Helen Zilla admitted that, "Mbeki acted in terms of executive and not administrative power" and that "his actions fall outside the scope of the Promotion of Administrative Justice Act, thus we are precluded from challenging her appointment in a court of law." According to Brown, the Pikoli Commission is likely to "drag out" long after the ANC conference in December. Brown believes that Mbeki specifically chose Ginwala because she "desperately" wants back in government and will therefore be pliant. Otherwise, according to Brown, Mbeki would never have chosen her. Moreover, because she was raised "in the ANC family," Brown believes that Ginwala will not publicly embarrass South Africa by criticizing Mbeki's decision to fire Pikoli and keep National Police Commissioner Jackie Selebi. ¶4. (C) BIO NOTE: Press reports note that Ginwala, who is in her mid-70s, has been involved in the ANC since her childhood. She went into exile at an early age, worked as a journalist in Tanzania, and later trained as a lawyer in London. Brown told POLOFF that she lives and breathes for the ANC, having been known to say publicly, "I was ANC long before I was Speaker!" Brown also said she was rumored to be former ANC president Oliver Tambo's mistress. However, Ginwala had a prickly reputation as Speaker and made enemies in the ANC by endorsing investigations into the arms scandal, former disgraced MP Tony Yengeni who was convicted of fraud, and Travelgate. Perhaps because of her independence, she was rather unceremoniously dumped by the ANC in 2004 after Qrather unceremoniously dumped by the ANC in 2004 after refusing to heed an ANC National Working Committee directive to step down and become an ordinary MP. By refusing to sit in the benches as an ordinary MP, she irritated President Mbeki and dashed her long held dream to become Speaker of the Pan African Parliament, according to Professor Dirk Kotze (protect). END BIO NOTE. ¶5. (C) COMMENT: Despite Ginwala's independent streak, Brown is probably right about her motives. It is unlikely that Mbeki, who almost always gets what he wants, chose Ginwala blindly. Mbeki takes unpopular decisions, but always within a legal framework. Ginwala's training as a lawyer will likely confirm this. Most importantly, she may have exhibited temerity during her tenure as Speaker, but being outside the tent right now during such a tumultuous time for the party is also likely difficult for someone who "lives and breathes" for the ANC. END COMMENT. BOST