ANC ELECTORAL COMMISSION TO LOOK FOR COMPROMISE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PRETORIA 003874 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/05/2017 TAGS: PGOV PINR SF SUBJECT: ANC ELECTORAL COMMISSION TO LOOK FOR COMPROMISE CANDIDATE PRETORIA 00003874 001.4 OF 002 Classified By: Political Counselor Raymond Brown. Reasons 1.4(b) and ( d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Despite the ANC's efforts to clearly spell out its election procedures, including the hiring of a non-governmental entity to monitor the actual election, ANC insider Iqbal Jhazbhay portrayed the lead-up to December's election in terms of patience, persuasion, and interpretation, rather than deadlines, free will, and rules. Jhazbhay told PolCouns and POLOFF on 5 November that the ANC Electoral Commission will try to reach a compromise ballot for the top six positions by the first week of December. Though confident that "it will all work out," Jhazbhay admitted he did not know how the Electoral Commission is going to convince both Mbeki and Zuma to step aside, overcome hardening stances of their supporters, or manage unmet expectations, especially among youth. END SUMMARY. -------------- -------------- ELECTORAL COMMISSION WILL TRY TO REACH COMPROMISE -------------- -------------- ¶2. (C) ANC insider Iqbal Jhazbhay told PolCouns and POLOFF on 5 November that branches are still in the process of nominating their candidates for the top six positions and the National Executive Committee (NEC),but that none of the provinces have yet to officially declare their preferred candidates. He dismissed press reports of a 10 November deadline for branches, saying he believes the ANC "will be flexible." (COMMENT: It is unclear if the ANC also will be flexible about the 26 November deadline for provincial nominations since branch nominations are supposed to feed into the provincial nominations process. END COMMENT) ¶3. (C) For now, Jhazbhay believes the race is still wide open. However, "we" should have a clearer idea of who will appear on the ballot by the first week in December, after the ANC Electoral Commission has done the initial backroom horsetrading, he said. In other words, the EC will likely try to work out a compromise ballot before the election. When asked if this was within the EC's purview, he said that the EC will follow ANC tradition, which is all about compromise. "The EC will interpret the ANC Constitution, just as the Constitutional Court interprets the South African Constitution," he added. ¶4. (C) Jhazbhay also said that the EC's mandate to find a compromise is supported by many in the ANC who believe "it's time for change and for a second generation of leaders." Jhazbhay believes that most of those in the ANC who support a compromise candidate are leaning toward ANC Secretary General Kgalema Motlanthe, even though he is seen to be "skewed toward ANC Deputy President Jacob Zuma." He could not explain, however, why the idea of a compromise candidate has not manifested itself in branch nominations, the overwhelming number of which are for either Mbeki or Zuma. -------------- COMPROMISE WILL NOT BE EASY -------------- ¶5. (C) As for the EC's ability to actually reach a compromise, Jhazbhay was confident that "it will all work out." He said that in South Africa, unlike other African countries, politics is not a zero-sum game. "One can work for government, parastatals, or go into business after an election." However, when asked whether fears of retribution within Mbeki's camp were valid should Zuma win and vice-versa, he admitted that "there is probably a certain Qvice-versa, he admitted that "there is probably a certain element of that." He also appeared less certain when POLOFF asked how the EC will be able to convince both Mbeki and Zuma (and their supporters) to step aside, acknowledging that it will be difficult. He also expressed concern about how young ANC members, whom he believes are "unpredictable and dissatisfied," were going to act at the conference. (NOTE: In the past six months, younger ANC members, almost all of whom have been pro-Zuma, have disrupted numerous ANC events. Most recently, Mbeki and Zuma supporters got into a fist fight on 20 October at the funeral of ANC veteran Norman Mashabane in Limpopo. END NOTE) -------------- BIO NOTE -------------- ¶6. (C) Jhazbhay is extremely friendly and knowledgeable about PRETORIA 00003874 002.2 OF 002 the continent, especially Horn issues. His business card reads Analyst: Horn of Africa, Islamic Studies, North Africa, Middle East & Arabic Studies for the University of South Africa. He is a member of the ANC's Commission of Religious Affairs, but also mentioned in passing discussions he had with the ANC's international relations committee on the upcoming ANC conference. He casually dropped Mbeki's name and the names of several members of the President's inner circle, including presidential advisor Mojanku Gumbi and Foreign Affairs Minister Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma (whom he compared to a bull dog with a bone). He also gave the impression that he is a close friend and in regular contact with South Africa's Ambassador to Washington Welile Nhlapo. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶7. (C) Despite the ANC's efforts to paint a portrait of a democratic election, it appears that the days of backroom deals may not be over. The party's ability to reach a compromise ballot is an ANC tradition, but in today's ANC, it also likely reflects concern over growing tension and uncertainty within the party. Many in the ANC share Jhazbhay's optimism that everything will work out in the end. This is also not the first time we have heard Motlanthe's name mentioned as a possible compromise, but more often than not, it is mentioned by those in Zuma's camp (septel). ¶8. (C) However, this election is different: the party has not been this split over a presidential candidate since 1958, the stakes arguably have never been higher (Mbeki is facing lame-duck status, while Zuma may still face corruption charges),and all six top positions have never been contested. Reaching a compromise under these circumstances is going to be an uphill battle and one that ANC youth and grassroots members who appear increasingly committed to either Mbeki or Zuma could refuse to accept. BOST