ANC DELEGATE DISTRIBUTION AND IMPACT

UNCLAS PRETORIA 003816 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV SF SUBJECT: ANC DELEGATE DISTRIBUTION AND IMPACT REF: PRETORIA 3764 ¶1. (SBU) The ANC National Executive Committee (NEC) in September determined that the total number of voting delegates at the ANC's national conference in December will be 4,075, according to UNISA Professor Dirk Kotze, who said he received the breakdown from the ANC. In accordance with the ANC's Constitution, 90 percent, or 3,675 delegates, will come from the almost 2,700 ANC branches in good standing as of June 30, 2007. The remaining delegates include 66 NEC delegates (all 60 current NEC members plus the top six ANC Official Positions),68 ANC Women's League delegates, 68 ANC Youth League delegates, and 22 delegates from each of the nine provinces. (NOTE: The total number of delegates is higher than expected as ANC documents have consistently listed the maximum number of delegates for the 2007 conference as 4,000. END NOTE) ¶2. (U) The number of branch-level delegates per province, ranked by size, is as follows: -- Eastern Cape (906 delegates) -- KwaZulu-Natal (608 delegates) -- Limpopo (400 delegates) -- Free State (363 delegates) -- Gauteng (354 delegates) -- Mpumalanga (325 delegates) -- North West (280 delegates) -- Northern Cape (220 delegates) -- Western Cape (219 delegates). Delegates will be divided among the branches in a two-part process. First, each branch in good standing will be allocated one delegate. The remaining delegates will be divided among branches in the province in proportion to their membership. In other words, because allocation is done in two stages (first to the province, then to the branches),the number of delegates each branch will be able to send is dependent on the size of the branch and the total number of members in the province. ¶3. (U) When compared to 2002 figures, Eastern Cape and KwaZulu-Natal have maintained the number one and two spots as far as the number of voting delegates per province. Free State has increased from 7th place to 4th, Limpopo has moved from 5th to 3rd, and the Northern Cape has moved from 9th to 8th. Provinces that lost rankings include Gauteng (from 3rd to 5th),Mpumalanga (4th to 6th),North West (6th to 7th), and Western Cape (8th to 9th). When compared to provincial population figures as a whole, Eastern Cape, Mpumalanga, Free State, and Northern Cape will have a disproportionate influence, while the percentage of delegates allotted to KwaZulu-Natal, Gauteng, Limpopo, and Western Cape reflects less than their proportion of the national population. Only North West has seven percent of the population and seven percent of delegates. ¶4. (SBU) Individual provincial delegations, ANC Leagues, and the NEC together will have less than 10 percent of the total delegates. However, the ANCYL and ANCWL could have a disproportionate impact since some ANC branch delegates could also come from these leagues. ¶5. (SBU) COMMENT: It is impossible to predict the outcome of the ANC succession race based on distribution of delegates alone for two reasons: first, provinces do not vote as blocks and second, the branch-level nominations process has just gotten underway (reftel). With the exception of KwaZulu-Natal, which is firmly behind ANC Deputy President Jacob Zuma, most provinces appear divided or undecided. Knowing the percentage of support each candidate has within a province would be helpful, but not conclusive. Delegates "must be able to persuade as well as be persuaded," leaving Q"must be able to persuade as well as be persuaded," leaving the door open for unexpected results. In previous party elections, when backroom deals produced an uncontested ballot, delegates' votes were pro-forma. But in what is likely to be the most contested election in the ANC's 95-year history, the concept of "free agent delegate" may take on a whole new meaning. For the first time, delegates will likely have to weigh a number of competing interests, including their conscience, morals, ethnicity, pocket books, personal aspirations, and calls for a united party. END COMMENT. BOST