AMBASSADOR ENGAGES ENVOYS ON ZIMBABWE, CRIME,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PRETORIA 003766 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR AF/S R. MARBURG E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/23/2017 TAGS: PGOV PREL ASEC MASS MARR ZI SF SUBJECT: AMBASSADOR ENGAGES ENVOYS ON ZIMBABWE, CRIME, AFRICOM AND SUCCESSION PRETORIA 00003766 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: Ambassador Eric Bost. Reasons 1.4(b) and (d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY. During an October 23 lunch hosted by Ambassador, envoys from eight countries expressed their concern about the political and economic situation in Zimbabwe and skepticism about President Mbeki's facilitation efforts there. One High Commissioner suggested that Mbeki did not feel political pressure to act on Zimbabwe, in part because Zimbabwean exiles working in South Africa were filling critical skills gaps. The envoys remain disappointed with the South African Government (SAG) response to crime and agreed on the need to coordinate the diplomatic corps' engagement with the SAG on this issue. Ambassador briefed on AFRICOM, evoking surprise and disappointment when he explained that the SAG had turned away numerous USG offers to consult them before AFRICOM's inauguration. On ANC succession, some envoys suggested that ANC Deputy President Zuma had built momentum, but they generally agreed that the race was still too close to call. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (C) Ambassador hosted a lunch October 23 at his residence for Pretoria-based Ambassadors and High Commissioners from India, France, Germany, Italy, New Zealand, Singapore, Argentina, and the European Commission. DCM, ORI Chief, DATT, PolOff, Staff Aide, and Special Assistant joined the lunch. -------------- Skeptical on Zimbabwe Elections -------------- ¶3. (C) Ambassador opened the discussion by noting U.S. concern about the deteriorating economic and political situation in Zimbabwe. The envoys, several of whom are also accredited to Zimbabwe, fully shared the Ambassador's sentiments. They were generally skeptical about President Mbeki's SADC facilitation effort and the prospects of holding free and fair elections in 2008. Ambassador Briet from the European Commission (EC) suggested that the upcoming Zimbabwe elections could put the EC and others in a quandary since the polls might be better than previous elections, yet clearly not meet the standard of "free and fair." The Italian and French envoys noted that Mugabe's attendance at the upcoming EU Summit in Portugal had effectively split the European Union on Zimbabwe. High Commissioner McGoun from New Zealand questioned why the MDC had agreed to Constitutional Amendment 18, receiving little or nothing in return. ¶4. (C) Indian High Commissioner Batia said that he did not believe that President Mbeki felt much domestic pressure to act on Zimbabwe. While Zimbabwean immigration has created some pressure in the border area, educated Zimbabweans working in South Africa were filling critical skills gaps. Zimbabwe's failure also "makes South Africa look good by comparison." -------------- Crime Remains Major Concern -------------- ¶5. (C) Crime in South Africa continues to be a major concern to the United States, Ambassador noted, stressing his deep personal concern about the safety of U.S. Mission staff. The other envoys heartily agreed. Indian High Commissioner Batia recounted the story of Jackie Selebi, Commissioner of the South African Police Service, visiting the High Commission offices "to understand better the security problems for embassies." Much to the surprise of the High Commissioner, Selebi's key recommendation was to hire a private security QSelebi's key recommendation was to hire a private security company for security. DCM and others noted that given recent attacks on chanceries, South Africa is not in compliance with its Vienna Convention obligations to provide security for foreign missions. ¶6. (C) Ambassador said that the United States was frustrated because it had offered to provide police training to the SAG, yet they had refused to accept it. The Italian Ambassador noted that they had recently made some progress on cooperation on police training and were negotiating a Memorandum of Understanding with the SAG. Several envoys suggested that the international business community might be effective in lobbying the South African Government to make fighting crime a higher priority. The envoys agreed that the diplomatic corps should coordinate its engagement with the PRETORIA 00003766 002.2 OF 002 SAG on crime. -------------- Briefing on AFRICOM -------------- ¶7. (C) Ambassador and DCM briefed envoys on the newly-inaugurated U.S. African Command (AFRICOM). Ambassador underscored that AFRICOM represents an internal reorganization of the Department of Defense and that no final decision had been made on its long-term location. He also noted that DefMin Lekota's comments that SADC and the AU opposed AFRICOM were not accurate. The envoys were surprised that the South African Government (SAG) had been unresponsive to multiple high-level U.S. offers of consultations on AFRICOM. -------------- Succession Remains Unclear -------------- ¶8. (C) Concluding the lunch, Ambassador asked envoys their views on the ANC leadership succession. Several noted that current ANC Deputy President Jacob Zuma appeared to be building momentum, but that it remained too early to make any predictions. French Ambassador Pietton commented that the "math" of the ANC conference delegates voting was the key, but that no one had any solid information about the loyalties of the voting delegates. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶9. (C) The frank and open discussion among the envoys highlighted shared concerns about the economic and political crisis in Zimbabwe and the critical crime threat in South Africa. Ambassador took advantage of the presence of key partners to correct misperceptions about AFRICOM and emphasize that the USG has been open to consulting with the SAG on AFRICOM's creation. The lack of consensus about the ANC succession race, even among these well-informed envoys, confirms what we have been reporting -- the race for ANC president at the December ANC Congress remains too close to call. BOST