ANC NOMINATIONS PROCESS OUTLINED

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 PRETORIA 003764 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV SF SUBJECT: ANC NOMINATIONS PROCESS OUTLINED REF: A. 06 PRETORIA 2545 ¶B. PRETORIA 3328 PRETORIA 00003764 001.4 OF 002 ¶1. (U) The ANC unveiled in detail on 17 October the mechanics of the nomination process leading up to the party's 52nd National Conference 16-20 December (see www.anc.org.za). ANC branches, ANC provincial general councils, the ANC Women's League, and the ANC Youth League will all meet between now and 26 November to nominate candidates for what the ANC calls "Official Positions": President, Deputy President, National Chairperson, Secretary General, Deputy Secretary General, and Treasurer General. Candidates for the 60-member National Executive Committee (NEC) will also be selected. The list for the NEC must include at least one-third women, but there is no such requirement for the top six official positions. (NOTE: Mission will transmit a separate message on delegate distribution and selection. END NOTE) -------------- STRICT OVERSIGHT PROVIDED -------------- ¶2. (SBU) The NEC has appointed Henry Makgothi, Ruth Mompati, Mochubela Seekoe, Laloo Chiba, Ben Turok, Benson Fihla, Essop Jassat, Bertha Gxowa, Rosalia Morutuoa, Makho Njobe, Rashaka Ratshitanga, and Gertrude Shope as members of the Electoral Commission (EC) in accordance with Rule 14 of the ANC Constitution. Ebrahim Fakir of Center for Policy Studies told PolOff that the NEC purposefully selected older ANC stalwarts, known for being independent thinkers. EC members cannot make themselves available for election. An independent electoral agency -- press reports describe it as a capacity building NGO -- also has been appointed to oversee (in conjunction with the EC) the final elections in December. -------------- BRANCH NOMINATION PROCESS -------------- ¶3. (U) The 2,700 ANC branches in good standing as of 30 June 2007 will hold branch general meetings to decide on their preferred candidates for each of the six leadership slots (Ref B). A series of votes will be held until only two candidates remain for each position, at which time branch members will vote again with the candidate receiving more than 50 percent of the votes winning the nomination. Branches also nominate up to 60 names for the NEC. Only those candidates who receive more than 50 percent of the vote will be nominated. Completed branch nominations are placed in sealed envelopes and placed in a sealed box at the provincial office. -------------- PROVINCIAL NOMINATIONS -------------- ¶4. (SBU) Provinces will hold Provincial General Councils (PGCs) to consolidate and finalize nominations after branches have met. Delegates to the PGC should be the same delegates who will go on to vote at the national conference. The process will begin after the independent agency and provincial monitors open the sealed boxes containing branch nominations and count all ballots for both Official Positions and the NEC. According to the ANC, "the provincial nominations process will be based on a democratic process that uses the branch nominations as a basis." For example, for the NEC, the top 60 names should automatically become the provincial nominees. However, PGC delegates may add or delete names "that would enhance representivity or other leadership criteria" for the NEC provided 50 percent of delegates agree to the change, and for the top six positions provided, 25 percent of delegates must agree. Voting will be done by secret ballot. Q -------------- GENDER PARITY NOT MANDATORY, YET -------------- ¶5. (U) According to the ANC's current constitution, the NEC candidate list must include at least one-third females. If not, the top 20 females will be added to the list, regardless of their overall ranking. There is no such criteria for the top six leadership positions, which are currently held entirely by men. (NOTE: During the ANC's policy conference in June 2007, it was widely agreed that the party would amend the constitution to allow for gender parity in all ANC PRETORIA 00003764 002.4 OF 002 structures, but this will not affect the current election. END NOTE) -------------- -------------- YOUTH AND WOMEN'S LEAGUES QUASI-PROVINCE WITH MORE VOTES -------------- -------------- ¶6. (U) The nomination process by the ANC Women's League and ANC Youth League follows the same procedure as above, but with National League Nominations Conferences taking the place of Provincial Nominations Conferences. The Youth League and Women's League each will have 68 voting delegates to the National Conference, whereas provinces will send 22 delegates each (septel). The remaining 3,675 delegates will come from branches. -------------- NATIONAL CONFERENCE -------------- ¶7. (SBU) Between 26 November, when provincial and League nominations are due, and 14 December, the real horsetrading process will begin, according to UNISA Professor Dirk Kotze. The independent agency and the EC will compile the top 200 candidates for the NEC (providing for 33% women) and the top three names for each of the Official Positions. Candidates may be nominated for more than one position. New names may be added to a ballot during the conference provided the nomination is supported by 25 percent of delegates (i.e., at least 1,000 delegates). New candidates for the NEC may also be added not to exceed two additional persons per province. ¶8. (U) Delegates will be notified of the ballot on the first day of the conference. Delegates "are not bound by their branch, province, or League and who may be influenced by debates and other nominations that occur at the conference." -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶9. (SBU) It is impossible to predict how the election will turn out based on process alone. The fact that provincial delegates can override branch wishes could benefit President Mbeki slightly since he controls many of the provincial structures. However, voting delegates are free to both nominate from the floor and vote independently of their branch, province, or League, which could neutralize this advantage. Regardless, it appears that both Mbeki and ANC Deputy President Jacob Zuma will likely appear on the final ballot. With the Electoral Commission stacked with respected ANC stalwarts, combined with the outside monitoring agency, the actual election also will most likely be free. However, what will influence the outcome the most is the behind-the-scenes horsetrading -- what will be promised or threatened and by whom -- that will ensue between 26 November and 15 December. BOST