ANC NOW ACCEPTING OFFICIAL PARTY NOMINATIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L PRETORIA 003475 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/02/2017 TAGS: PGOV SF SUBJECT: ANC NOW ACCEPTING OFFICIAL PARTY NOMINATIONS REF: PRETORIA 3328 Classified By: Deputy Political Counselor Catherine Kay. Reasons 1.4(b) . ¶1. (SBU) The ANC finished its membership audit on 30 September, according to press reports, revealing that the party has increased its membership by almost 50 percent since ¶2002. Total membership now stands at 619,255 members, compared to 416,846 members immediately before the ANC's last national conference in 2002. As expected, Eastern Cape has the highest number of members at 153,164 and will consequently have the greatest number of voting delegates in December. KwaZulu-Natal comes in second at 102,742 members, followed by Limpopo (67,304),Free State (61,258),Gauteng (59,675),Mpumalanga (54,266),North West (47,892),Northern Cape (37,358),and Western Cape (35,596). (COMMENT: Eastern Cape's numbers are higher than expected and could be attributed to last minute lobbying by Eastern Cape officials to ANC Secretary General Motlanthe. END COMMENT) ¶2. (U) ANC Spokesperson Tiyani Rikhotso publicly said that the maximum number of voting delegates is 4,000 and that 3,600 will come from branches in direct proportion to provincial membership. The remaining 400 will come from the ANC Women's and Youth Leagues (53 delegates each) and the national and provincial executive committees. In real terms, this means that Eastern Cape will likely have about 50 percent more delegates than KwaZulu-Natal. However, with so many provinces still undecided on who should lead the ANC, voting blocs may not necessarily be drawn along neat provincial boundaries. ¶3. (U) With the ANC auditing process officially over, ANC provincial structures may now send in their nominations for the top six positions in the party (President, Deputy President, Chairman, Secretary General, Deputy Secretary General, and Treasurer) and the 60-member National Executive Committee. No province has publicly declared its party list yet. ¶4. (C) COMMENT. Though 90 percent of voting delegates come from the branch level, the independence of their votes is debatable. A careful examination of membership figures over the past ten years reveals a party whose membership waxes and wanes based on conference and election schedules. Even the ANC's own Organizational Report from 2005 points out that "branches are launched prior to conferences and election campaigns, only to collapse a few months later." While not illegal, it begs the question of whether recruitment over the past several months has been based on ideology or political expediency and more importantly, who in each region has managed to recruit the most new members. END COMMENT. Bost