ANC AUDITS BY THE BOOK

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PRETORIA 003328 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/18/2017 TAGS: PGOV SF SUBJECT: ANC AUDITS BY THE BOOK PRETORIA 00003328 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission Donald Teitelbaum. Reasons 1.4( b) and (d). ¶1. (C) The ANC's Head of Research Wande Makalima described to PolOff on 18 September the "tedious and timeconsuming task" of ANC branch audits, which will determine the number of voting delegates each province will have at the ANC's national conference in December. Makalima, who participated in audits in Mpumalanga and Eastern Cape provinces, told Poloff that he and his team examined by hand every single ward's branch records to determine their eligibility and membership numbers. Makalima believes the ANC will finish all tallies by 21 September. (NOTE: Ninety percent of the 3,500-4,000 voting delegates will come from the branch level. END NOTE) -------------- ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA -------------- ¶2. (C) According to Makalima, ANC branches are only considered in good standing if they comply with Rule 23 of the ANC Constitution. First, a branch must be registered with the Provincial Executive Committee and have at least 100 members. Second, a branch must convene once a month and have held at least one annual general meeting sometime between March 2006 and June 2007 in which "at least half plus one" members attended. Third, all membership dues must be paid in full. A yearly membership (the minimum) costs 12 Rand (about USD1.70) and has a 3 month grace period within which one must renew. Therefore, provided a member paid their dues anytime between March 30, 2006 and March 30, 2007, they would continue to be deemed eligible. Last, a branch must have an elected branch executive committee for a period of one year term in office consisting of chair, deputy chair, secretary, deputy secretary, and treasurer and must submit reports on its work to the Regional Executive Committee every month. -------------- THE PROCESS NOT PERFECT BUT GOOD ENOUGH -------------- ¶3. (C) Makalima told POLOFF that he and his team painstakingly examined documents from every branch to determine size and eligibility. They hand counted signatures of AGM attendees, examined every membership application, and ensured that every member's bank deposit slip for their membership fee was attached to their membership form. If any information is missing, his team gave the ward two days to return to the provincial office to correct the error. ¶4. (C) Makalima said that the process is not perfect, but appeared confident that attempts at deception could be easily detected. For example, Makalima admitted that sometimes signatures can be forged, especially in rural areas where people still signed their name with an "X." However, he also pointed out improbable cases of members who listed student as their occupation, but who had signed their name with an "X," or members born after 1990 who could not sign their name. In these cases, the ANC was forced to disqualify them. Makalima also noted that he has seen branches submit "professional quality forged photocopies" of documents, which were also disqualified if ink on the official ANC seal did not smudge when wet. ¶5. (C) Few wards or municipalities challenge the audit results, according to Makalima, who noted that municipalities do not want to take the chance that a recount would result in an even lower number. Makalima told POLOFF that there was some controversy in Eastern Cape over a number of branches being declared nonexistent because its members were "brand new" and had not passed their eight week probationary period. ANC auditors could not count any ANC member who joined after 05 May; Eastern Cape officials were under the mistaken impression they had until 30 June to sign any new members. -------------- OFFICIAL NUMBERS DISAPPOINTING -------------- ¶6. (C) Makalima said that the ANC has been disappointed by overall membership numbers. Eastern Cape has about 135,000 members (with OR Tambo region alone having around 46,000), Gauteng has around 60,000 members, Mpumalanga has around 55,000, and KwaZulu-Natal will have around 97,000. (COMMENT: Though Makalima does not know the final figures for the remaining five provinces, both Eastern Cape and Kwa-Zulu PRETORIA 00003328 002.2 OF 002 Natal appear to have significantly increased their numbers. Eastern Cape almost doubled its membership from 70,651 in 2002 and KwaZulu-Natal increased its membership by almost 25 percent from 75,035. Gauteng appears to have gained little ground from a membership of 58,223, while Mpumalanga shows a slight increase from 48,239 members. END COMMENT) -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶7. (C) Given the numbers so far and the fact that Eastern Cape remains divided, any number of outcomes is possible at the ANC conference. For example, the O.R. Tambo region in Eastern Cape could vote for ANC Deputy President Jacob Zuma with Kwa-Zulu Natal, which would neutralize the remaining pro-Mbeki votes in Eastern Cape. However, with three months left to go and the remaining five provinces still undeclared, intense lobbying is likely to continue until the actual vote. Bost